User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday December 3, 2004 - 22:27:04 GMT
DailyFX.com - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: German Paper Reports US Not Expected To Intervene In Euro Until It Breaches 1.45 Against Dollar

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-03-04

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· German Paper Reports US Not Expected To Intervene In Euro Until It Breaches 1.45 Against Dollar
· Dollar Weakens On Disappointing US Non-Farm Payrolls
· Strong Service Sector Data Fuels Gains in Pound

EURUSD
The euro has strengthened to another new all-time high against the dollar. The relatively quiet US economic calendar next week suggests that the tone has been set for the weak ahead. The rally in the euro today has been gradual. Speculative positioning in the EURUSD (as measured by the FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index) is extremely interesting at this point. Prior to the non-farm payrolls release, speculators were net long EURUSD. The latest release (at 13:00 EST, 18:00 GMT) indicates that once again, longs have flipped positions with 1.77 short positions for every long position. Although the index can be fairly volatile, if short positions continue to dominate, a break above 1.35 would be a near certainty with short covering being inevitable. Euro bulls also found comfort in an article released by German newspaper Boersen-Zeitung, which cites a “high-ranking” US Treasury official as saying that they would not consider supporting the dollar until the EURUSD breaches 1.45. Meanwhile the weakness that we saw in the manufacturing sector earlier this week is also reflected in the service sector. Activity deteriorated to a 15 month low in the Eurozone, with weaker conditions seen in Italy, France and Germany.

USDCHF
A disappointing US non-farm payrolls release has helped the dollar reach new record lows against the euro. According to the NFP report, US companies added fewer than expected 112k jobs in the month of November, down from the downwardly revised 303k jobs added in October. The market had actually forecasted 200k jobs to be added to the economy last month. The release was weaker than even the lowest forecast by economists, and especially surprising given last month's strong number. This reminds us of this past summer, when every economist on the street consistently high-balled the NFP estimates. As a benchmark, it is estimated that 150k new jobs are needed to be created each month just to absorb the new workers joining the labor force. This is the weakest pace of job growth in 4 months. The manufacturing sector lost jobs for the third consecutive month. Average hourly earnings increased a less than expected 0.1% while average weekly hours worked fell from 33.8 to 33.7. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.4% from 5.5%. With most employment indicators released ahead of the report suggesting strong job growth, the only clue was in the Consumer Confidence report released earlier this week, which showed that an increasing number of consumers found jobs difficult to get in November. The decidedly weaker number should pare back some expectations for a Fed rate hike on December 14th. Also, the clear difficulty in finding jobs could dampen holiday spending. Walmart has already reported weak spending with other holiday shopping data generally mixed.

GBPUSD
Over this past week, the British pound has been the best performing currency against the dollar. A week of stronger economic data and bearish sentiment in the dollar has fueled significant gains for the GBPUSD. Improving activity in the service sector helped to fuel optimism, which follows the stronger manufacturing sector report that was released earlier this week. House prices though were not as supportive, having fallen –0.4% m/m as measured by Halifax. This comes in sharp contrast to the Nationwide House Price report released earlier last week. Nevertheless, with cable at 12 year highs, it should be an easy ride to 1.95. As for 2.00, if bullish momentum remains, a test of that level would not be surprising. However, short term volatility (1week) has increased significantly over the past few days, which suggests that we may be in store for a brief period of consolidation. Whether this is the case or not still remains unclear since there is a very heavy UK economic calendar next week.

USDJPY
Consolidation seems to be the theme in USD/JPY this week as no real direction has been established in part due to increased rhetoric issued by policy makers and speculative rumors of coordinated intervention efforts. After defending recent contacts with European officials yesterday, Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki made additional comments today warning that the central bank “will take bold action if needed” given current market valuations. Almost a daily occurrence now, these statements seem rather weak, as intervention has not occurred since March of 2004. Furthermore, exporters’ increased resiliency towards currency fluctuations this year and optimistic economic growth prospects in Japan have led many investors to favor dollar shorts but remain cautious of ominous central bank action. Adding to the economic expansion potential of the world’s second largest economy was an upbeat survey released this morning that showed capital investment soared 14.4 percent higher in the July-September period. The better than expected gain may prompt economists in raising productivity estimates for the quarter, furthering the notion of dollar bearish sentiment.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105