were hit hard again overnight, as traders digested more bad economic news and
credit markets remained under lockdown. The US bailout package
remains a key risk for markets â€“ while the US Senate voted in favour of the
package yesterday, there is still no assurance that the House (expected to vote
tomorrow) will approve it in its current form. US equity indices were down 3-4% at
the time of writing, and 3-month interbank lending rates rose to a record 220bp
above the Fedâ€™s policy rate. The US dollar gained against most of the other
majors, with the widely-followed DXY index reaching its highest level in a
year. NZD and AUD were the major underperformers, down more than 2% over the
last 24 hours. The euro was also down sharply after the ECB hinted that a rate
cut is possible in the near future.
factory orders down 4% in Aug. Factory orders fell sharply, as expected, given
the known decline in durables and the energy-price driven fall in the non-durable
component. Factory inventories posted a further 0.6% gain which suggests that
stock rundown should not be the drag on Q3 GDP growth that it was in Q2.
initial jobless claims edged up to 497k last week, a level that
has been surpassed only once this decade, in the aftermath of the September 11
terror attacks in 2001. Ongoing hurricane-related disruption and genuine
weakness in labour markets were factors cited by the Labor Dept. Continuing
claims rose to their highest in five years.
European Central Bank left its repo rate unchanged at 4.25% following
last nightâ€™s Council meeting. In the press conference ECB chief Trichetsaid that â€śupside
risks to inflation have diminished but not disappearedâ€ť. Thatcompares to â€śupside
risks to price stability over the medium term prevailâ€ť inthe
September press conference. He also sounded more sombre about theprospect for
a recovery in GDP growth from the current weak patch, and notedthat
uncertainty had increased to â€śexceptionally highâ€ť levels given intensifiedfinancial
market turmoil. Reflecting this assessment, Trichet admitted that twocourses of
action were considered today: no change and a rate cut. Dependingon the data
flow and other events over the next month, a rate cut as soon asthe November
policy meeting on 6/11 now seems plausible, though Trichet gaveno clear
signal that rates would be cut next month, and denied that the ECBhas an
explicit â€śeasing biasâ€ť, in response to a question. Nevertheless the caseis now
strong enough for us to formally pull forward our ECB rate cutting cyclecommencement
from Q1 next year to the current quarter.
construction PMI 38.8 in Sep: deeply recessionary levels, despite ongoing concerns
about a housing shortage in the UK. Hard to
believe that just over one year ago, in August 2007, this index was at a
cyclical high of 65.0. At they same time, annual house price declines are now
clearly in double digit territory, at â€“12.4% yr on the Nationwide measure. Not
unrelated, the Bank of England published its Q3 credit conditions survey. The
net balance of lenders reporting diminished credit availability to households
was 39%, with 32% (net) expecting conditions to tighten further. The survey
predates the latest round of financial sector implosion, with a cut-off date of
September 17, so it may understate the tightness of credit conditions
difficult credit environment, further weakness is likely for currencies that need
to fund current account deficits. In particular, with the AUD reaching a new
low for the year against the yen, a fresh round of selling by margin traders could
be on the cards.
Strategy, 0800 922 239
contributions from Westpac Economics
â€˘ NZ Q3
Employment Confidence Index (1 October)
â€˘ NZ PREFU
Preview (29 September)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (29 September)
â€˘ NZ Q2 GDP
Review (26 September)
â€˘ NZ Q3
Consumer Confidence (24 September)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (22 September)
â€˘ NZ Q2
Current Account Review (19 September)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.