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Forex Blog - European Market Update: US Non-Farm payroll data and House vote on TARP to conclude whirwind week of events

Today 05:38am
European Market Update: US Non-Farm payroll data and House vote on TARP to conclude whirwind week of events

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (SZ) Switzerland CPI M/M: 0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.7%e

- (NO) Norway Sept PMI: 43.5 v 49.0

- (SP) Spain Industrial Output Y/Y: -11.2% v -3.0% prior; Workday Adjusted Y/Y: -7.0% v -5.1%e

- (SP) Spain Sept PMI Services: 36.1 v 37.1 prior

- (IT) Italy Sept PMI Services: 49.4 v 48.1e

- ( FR) France Sept PMI Services: 50.1 v 50.4e

- (GE) Germany Sept PMI Services: 50.2 v 49.

- (EU) Euro-zone Sept PMI Services: 48.4 v 48.2e; PMI Composite: 46.9 v 47.00e

- (UK) Sept PMI Services: 46.00 v 48.00e (lowest on record)

- (UK) BoE 2Q Housing Equity Withdrawal: -£2.5B v £2.5B (first decline in 10 years)

- (EU) Euro-Zone Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.4%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

Equity News: UBS [UBSN.SZ] Announced the repositioning of its investment bank and stated that it would reduce staffing levels by an additional 2K jobs. UBS stated that it plans to preserve its core strengths and reposition its FICC unit around client servicing and build on its equities business. It will exit commodities business with the exception of precious metals. The bank will substantially downsize real estate, proprietary trading. The employee reduction will bring staffing levels to 17K by the end of the year, which is 6K lower the levels seen during Q3 2007.|| Inbev [INB.BE] To proceed with $9.8B rights issue on BUD takeover and added that it saw its Q3 operating conditions in line with Q2. It expected that the subscription period for its rights issue to complete the takeover of Anheuser-Busch would be open from 16 October 2008 to 30 October period. It noted that the Interest For BUD Purchase was fixed at 3.875% plus spreads. The co. saw its 3Q Volume Percent Increase In 'Low Single Digits' and added that it gained market share in 8 Of 10 largest markets during the 3Q .|| Roche [ROG.SZ] Stated that a TOWARD Study showed that Actemra medicine eases symptoms in rheumatoid arthritis in a clinical study of patients who do not respond to standard treatments. The Actemra in combination with standard therapies also sent the condition into remission in 30 percent of patients after 24

weeks, compared with 3 percent of patients given the other treatments alone || Roche [ROG.SZ] Also entered into a collaboration agreement with Genentech [DNA] and Glycart for potential cancer treatment. The collaboration agreement calls for the joint development and commercialization of GlycArt's GA101 molecule. || Talyor Wimpey [TW.UK] stated that its discussions were continuing on bond covenants to amend the future provisions of existing borrowing agreements. It noted that recent unprecedented events in world financial markets have reinforced the Board's cautious view of the short term outlook for UK housing. It is likely that a revised covenant structure will be concluded early next year before the announcement of our Preliminary Results. || Premier Oil [PMO.UK] Announced the discovery in the Kareem formation sandstones in Egypt. The Al Amir SE-1 sidetrack well has been drilled in the onshore North West Gemsa Concession, Egypt. The well testing 41° API oil and gas at sustained rates of 3388 bopd and 4.25 MMscfd. || Black Leisure [BSLA.UK] Noted that recent trading environment was difficult, especially during August. However,its H1 remained inline with estimates. It guided H1 pretax loss £4.5M and remains optimistic on H2. || Fiat [F.IT] CEO confirmed its 2008 targets and adding that its plans are unchanged for US market. It still planed to bring Alfa Romeo to US around 2010. The CEO hoped to not have to modify its 2009 targets but sees no "light at the end of the "tunnel" until financial crisis is resolved. Sees European car market down 2-5% in 2009 but expects growth in the Brazilian market as well as in the compact Italian car market during 2009. Lastly he stated that company has no refinancing problems.

- Speakers: ECB's Trichet: Markets are in a correction and demand much attention. Trichet added that the ECB needs to provide price stability in the medium term and maintain economic growth. He noted that economic growth was slowing with increasing risks to the downside. EuroZone must coordinate its efforts in handling the financial market the crisis response.

- Stresses that US Tsy Sec Paulson's bailout plan must be passed|| ECB's Smaghi stated that the case for rapid and substantial govt intervention would be necessary in the event of further market tensions. He noted that govt should take stakes in banks rather than the purchase 'junk assets'.|| BOE dove David Blanchflower stated that UK interest rates must be cut and added that its unemployment could rise to an unprecedented level. ||Irish PM Cowen stated that banking guarantee fee would be substantial and that the guarantee levy would increase exchequer. Banks will bear any losses from guarantee

- In Currencies: The USD encountered some retracement against the major pairs ahead of the US jobs report later today. The EUR/USD probed the 1.39 area before comments from ECBs' Trichet and Bini Smaghi. ECB's Trichet noting the ongoing market correction demands attention. EUR/USD drifted back towards its best levels after the ECB noted all banks eligible for market operations could access quick tenders and this would be allowed until further notice. || Various institutions continue to revised their outlook on the European interest rate front. The call for cuts getting more aggressive as bit Citigroup and BNP looking for a 50bps cut by the BOE in Oct. BNP analyst revises its BOE rate forecast; now sees 50 bps cut by Oct. 9th (25 bps cut was the prior forecast). Citigroup analyst predicted BoE will cut rate by half a point to 4.5% by Oct 9th MPC. Morgan Stanley analyst noted that the ECB could cut its main rate by up to 125bps to 3% by the fall 2009.

- Commodities: Credit Suisse lowered its outlook on global mining companies to “marketweight” from “overweight “ || India gold imports increase for the second month as prices drop. India imported 72M tons in the month of compared ton 60M tons year ago. However, another trade souced cited that the Sept imports could fall to 68M to 69M tons

- In Energy: Reportedly a survey noted that Sept OPEC output seen around the 32.4M BPD from 32.7M prior with the Output decline led by lower supply from Saudi Arabia, Angola, Nigeria, Iraq || Premeir Oil [PMO.UK] Announces discovery in Kareem formation sandstones in Egypt. || BP [BP.UK] Reportedly Azari Group to keep oil output at one-third of capacity until end of Oct. || TNK-BP [TNBP.RU] Company stated that it has resolved the dispute with shareholders.

-In Fixed Income: The European central banks continued with the liquidity operations. The BoE received $35.2B bids for its in weekly operation with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.17x. The BOE also received $8.2B in its overnight auction, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 0.82x. The ECB announced a quick tender operation to drain €220B at 4.25% from its recent generous liquidity operations to bring its target rate back up. There was no fresh supply in the note or bond front.

- In the papers: WSJ's Heard on the Street column noted that safe-haven banks (USB, WFC) still have risks. The article noted that investors believe Wells Fargo and US Bancorp are the banks that offer the most safety and noted that both banks trade at higher multiple than their peers in terms of price/tangible book value. However, the article notes that both of these banks still hold large numbers of loans that could show higher-than expected credit losses. || Daimler [DAI.GE] FT article notes tha Middle Eastern and Asian investors could be seeking to invest in Daimler. The report cites Daimler's CEO who said that the investors are seeking anchor stakes in the company. The CEO added that his company was not looking for an anchor investor. However, back in early August it was reported that Daimler's CEO noted that Abu Dhabi Investment Authority was mulling a possible stake in the automaker.

- Credit crunch: ECB extended its eligibility of banks to participate in quick tender operation. ECB noted all banks eligible for market operations can access quick tenders; banks eligible as of Oct 6 until further notice || Financials: Reportedly, Goldman said that the total cost of the credit crunch is $1.2T; Says banks are half way through write downs. Previously back in June this Goldman Sachs analyst stated that US banks needed to raise another $65B and then stated that losses would peak in Q1 of 2009. Turkey Govt: Plans to hold talks with banks to ensure stability

*** NOTES ***

Politics (TAR) and jobs (NFP) will be the focus during the US morning this Friday. Markets will use the Non-farm data to evaluate how the recent increase in the credit market Turmoil has impacted the growth front. Thus the debate over any coordinated interest rate cut could loom on today's actions. The stress in the credit markets will also be highly watched as Libor fixings and TED spread remain highly elevated despite the start of a new quarter. The House of Representatives will vote on its version on the financial market bailout in the early US afternoon.

- The recent steep losses in the equity market have value players mired in confusion as fundamentals everywhere appeared lost in the mad rush to liquefy.


 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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