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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Lack of any concrete plan from Europe prompts risk aversion

Today 05:57am

European Market Update: Lack of any concrete plan from Europe prompts risk aversion


- (DE) Denmark Aug Industrial Production: -2.4% v 2.3% prior; Ex Ships. -3.9% v 4.4% prior

- (EU) Oct Sentix Investor Confidence. - 27.8 v -27.3e

- (PH) Philippine Central .bank kept its overnight rates unchanged at 6.0%, as expected


- Equity News: Basilea Pharmaceutica [BSLN.SZ] New treatment was approved by German regulators.- Toctino is a new once-daily oral treatment for adults with severe chronic hand eczema unresponsive to potent topical corticosteroids. || Roche [ROG.SZ] Announced results from Phase 3 study of Foravastin -Tarceva combination study in advanced lung cancer || India Central Bank Deputy Member: Risk management system of public sector banks is strong enough to deal with current crisis || Miva [MIVA] Blinkx withdraw its planned acquisition. || Eazy Jet [EZJ.UK] Reported Sept Load Factor of 86.9% v 85.2% y/y. The company reported total passengers of 4.2M versus 3.4M (+22.1% y/y). || Cooksen [CKSN.UK] Issued trading update with Q3 trading ahead of expectations. Although our markets are not immune from the impact of the uncertainty in the financial sector on the wider global economy, overall trading results for the Group for the third quarter showed a strong improvement in performance compared to the corresponding period last year reflecting the addition of Foseco's contribution and continuing currency translation gains. Bayer [BAY.GE] Stated that it Advance Riodiguat clinical trial into phase IIIn study ; reported positive phase II data. || E.oN [EOA.GE] German Cartel stated that it was dropping several cartel cases against company in relatinf to overcharging gas customers.

- Speakers: Japan Fin Min Nakagawa stated that MOF was to study strong JPY's impact upon the economy. He added that Japan was not considering a joint currency action at the moment ||ECB's Nowotny stated that the US economic slump is not easy to curtail and adds that he is not in favor a pan European banking supervision. Nowotny noted that he is not sure if U.S. $700B bailout plan is enough to resolve the current financial market crisis and that it could take up to a year for the U.S. plan to have an impact on the real economy || German Fin Min Steinbrueck: working on plan 'B" that is not a European solution || Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kawamura noted that MOF was closely monitoring the potential impact of Nikkei fall on real economy || Japan Ex-BoJ Fukui stated that the global financial crisis was becoming more serious and that it had a negative market impact on global economy. Japanese economy is facing further uncertainty|| Sweden Central Bank announced that it would increase its auction amount to SEK100B from SEK60B prior. || Swedish Government also announced that it would expand deposit guarantees for Swedish Bank customers (even foreign banks operating in Sweden) to SEK500K from SEK250K. || (NO) Norwegian central bank: Amends requirements for collateral on bonds credit rating and listings || Japan Vice Fin Min Sugimoto stated that he remained uncertain about US markets and remains vigilant on market volatility || Japan Fin Min Nakagawa: stated that it would study any impact on the recent strength in JPY upon its economy. He noted that Japan was not considering any joint currency action at the moment. Reportedly South Korea wants a financial crisis meeting with China, Japan to held at the end of October. || UK Treasury Minister stated that Britain is considering all options on financial crisis and is seeking to protect ordinary people. UK remained ready to intervene in the banking system as necessary. || ECB Tumpel-Gugerell stated that Central Banks, private banks and regulators should coordinate efforts and that confidence is necessary in order to calm the recent volatile market swings. || Turkish Central Bank stated that it saw inflation declining on lower energy and commodity prices and that lower food prices would also reduce inflation. || Bank of Israel also noted that a slowing inflation front could propmtthe possibility of a rate cut later this year

- In Currencies: USD gapped in the thin Sydney/ New Zealand period against the major pairs. EUR/USD closed at 1.3787 on Friday and opened in Tokyo at 1.3647 and tested as low as 1.3541 during the European morning. However, the session was marked by carry-related pairs as risk-aversion theme emerged as the key. USD/USD tested as low as 102.90 and EUR/JPY briefly broke below the 140 handle. EUR/CHF at 1.55 area. Commodity currency || Indonesia Central Bank reportedly intervened in FX markets, Sells USD buying IDR.

- In Energy: NYMEX Nov crude tested below the $90 barrel for the first time since early February of this year. Nov crude fell towards $89 during the course of the European morning.

- In Fixed Income: The central banks continued their liquidity operation in the o/n markets. The BoE added $10B in overnight repo || ECB alloted $50B in one day dollar tender, received $90B in bids, bid to cover 1.8x || ECB was also to absorb €220B in a fine tuning operation at a fixed rate of 4.25%. The ECB also noted that €24.59B was borrowed using overnight loan facility.

*** NOTES ***

Risk aversion has been the buzzword and Mondays in October are always worrisome. The lack of a decision for a concrete pan-European plan to recapitalize European banks over the weekend was the trigger for the panic today. The continuing credit market seizure has caused bank bailouts to spread through Europe and this has deeply impacted sentiment on the equity front as Europe is down 5% in its major bourses. Safe have flows into Government bonds coupled with a continued rotation out of stocks and commodities. Gold displaying a decoupling effect against the USD. One dealer noted that the theme is define as the 'Revenge of the carry trade” as thin liquidity conditions usually associated with calendar yearend markets appear to take hold in early October. Lastly dealers noting that the economic schedule is on the light side this week, if that matters

Looking ahead:

- 8:30 (CA) Aug Building Permits MoM: expected -1.5% v 1.8% prior

- 10:00 (CA) Sept Ivey Purchasing Manager Index: expected at 51.0 v 51.5 prior

- 9:00 Former Fed Chairman Paul Volker, Fed's Ferguson

- 12:00 US Treasury Ryan


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