continued to grip global markets in London/NY trade, with cash hoarding and
attempts to preserve capital proving positive for USD Index as it punched to
new highs dating to Aug07. The falls in Asian equities Monday were easily
exceeded in Europe and the US, with DJIA
sitting -725pts/-7% in late trade. Financials were among the worst hit despite
new Fed measures to boost the amount of cash available to money markets. There
were predictions of an emergency Fed rate cut β and perhaps even ECB too β but this
was not delivered. NZD/USD had started London trade
somewhat calmly, close to 0.6500 but then started to slip and a wave of yen
cross selling in the NY morning smacked it to lows under 0.6200.
in the mid-high 0.7400 area in the European morning but sank to a staggering
low of 0.6985 in NY as equities tumbled. Gold rallied about $35/oz in the
heaviest wave of risk aversion in NY, but other commodities were under
substantial pressure. All manner of stories swirled over European banking but
the euro easily outperformed e.g. AUD even as EUR/USD
fell further, from above 1.3600 to the 1.3470 area in late NY.
comfortably above 103.00 until late morning NY when heavy selling from accounts
reportedly including Japanese life insurers sent the pair crashing to as low as
Fed boosts liquidity further β but no rate cut yet. The Fed will
now pay interest on reserves, will double the size of the Term Auction Facility
to $600bn and will hold more frequent auctions. There was no US data today
although Chicago Fed president Evans said he expected the economy βto be quite
sluggish in H2 2008 and into 2009β, however βthe inflation outlook remains a
riskβ. Some might argue with that last point: collapsing commodity prices and
slowing economies could see deflation fears soon re-emerge.
Sentix investor confidence down from 20 to 28 in Oct. We expect
similar or steeper falls in investor and business confidence surveys in coming
weeks as the full impact of the banking crisis, now hitting Europe with full
force, is captured in the surveys.
building permits fall 13.5% in Aug. Both residential and commercial building
permits fell sharply, adding weight to the view that the domestic economy is
losing some momentum. In contrast, the Ivey PMI rose from 51.5 to 61.0 in Sep.
The index is not seasonally adjusted but a rise of this magnitude in Sep is not
typical so survey respondents seem to have been genuinely up-beat (which is
to enter fresh trades in the current volatile environment appears to be helping
NZD versus AUD but we suspect that data revealing another weak quarter in Q3
will leave the kiwi vulnerable to selling on key crosses in coming days and
weeks. NZD/USD looks to have further to fall.
Strategy, 0800 922 239
contributions from Westpac Economics
β’ NZ PREFU
Review (6 October)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (6 October)
β’ NZ Q3
Employment Confidence Index (1 October)
β’ NZ PREFU
Preview (29 September)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (29 September)
β’ NZ Q2 GDP
Review (26 September)
β’ NZ Q3
Consumer Confidence (24 September)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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