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Forex Blog - European Market Update: UK Gov't formally announces bank rescue plan; Market players demanding coordinated interest rate cuts

Today 06:05am

European Market Update: UK Gov't formally announces bank rescue plan; Market players demanding coordinated interest rate cuts

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (JN) BOJ Monthly Report: BOJ cuts view on Corporate Sentiment and CAPEX;

- (JN) Sept Eco Watchers Survey Current: 28.0 v 27.8e; Outlook: 32.1 v 28.3 prior

- (FR) Aug Trade Balance: -€5.4 v -€4.5Be; Central Government Balance: -€67.6B - €54.1B

- (SW) Sweden Aug Industrial Production M/M: -1.7% v -1.1%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -0.1%

- (SW) Sweden Aug Industrial Orders: M/M: -8.3% v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: -12.8% v1.6% prior

- (EU) Euro-zone Q2 Final GDP. Q/Q: 0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v1.4%e

- (EU) Euro-zone Q2 Final Government Expenditure: Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q/Q: -1.0% v -1.2e; Household Consumption Q/Q:

-0.2% v -0.2%e

- (UK) Sept BRC Shop Price Index M/M: % v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: % v 3.2% prior

6:00 (GE) Germany Aug Industrial Production M/M: 3.4% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v -2.8%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

In equities: Novartis [NOVN.SZ] stated that a phase 2 data showed potential for Glivec to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension, but missed core focus. Stops clinical trials of Glivec in IPF || Sansbury [SBRY.UK] Reported Q2 SSS (ex fuel) +4.3% compared to analyst estimates of 4%. Total sales were up 8.4%. Says customers are buy more low cost products and sees strong sales in non-food products. Sansbury noted that the economy remained challenging and expect condition to remain tough into H2 but is well positioned for Christmas shopping period. || Uniq [UNIQ.UK] Guided its Q3 sales in line y/y, but saw significant deterioration since July due to economic conditions. The company warned of H2 loss as conditions continue to deteriorate. || Renault [RNO.FR] Reportedly planning 3K voluntary departures plus 1K at Sandouville location || Carillion [CLLN.UK] Awarded £100M worth of contracts. || HBOS [HBOS.UK] HBOS.UK: Stated that its proposed acquisition by Lloyds is still on track and that its detailed integration planning is making good progress.

- Speakers: German Fin Min Steinbrueck stated in a letter to US Treasury's Paulson that markets are still far from being “out of the woods” and called for for a global ban on certain short selling activities. The minister noted that prompt central bank actions have eased problems but restoring confidence would be the biggest challenge || ECB's Nowotny noted that the ECB has remained on sidelines but is discussing economy and inflationary development. He added that the financial markets need clear regulations and noted that Ireland and Germany have triggered a number of promises. The ECB must provide price stability and liquidity during crisis. Nowotny added that bank bailout are a government business and that restructuring of banks is a job for governments ||Japan's Fin Min Nakagawa stated that recent currency moves in USD/JPY have not been volatile. He added that they must confront market view regarding Japanese economy || ECB's Provopoulos stated that the Euro Zone GDP growth would likely stay low in 2009 and could continue decelerating. He stated that the full impact of economic crisis has yet to be felt. However, Euro Zone inflation should stay high for several months before easing gradually. The Euro's strength has begun to impact the export growth. ECB is vigilant on ensuring stability in financial markets || South Korean Fin Min Shin noted that its currency depreciation has been excessive but the situation is totally different from 1997 crisis. He added that Korea's current account balance should improve eventually. || UK PM Brown stated that looking for cooperation at macro level with G7 World financial market has stopped functioning; intervention gets to the heart of the problem and noted that more than provide liquidity and buy up toxic bank assets || UK's Darling stated that the UK Govt would charge a fee for interbank loan guarantees and that major intervention was needed to avoid an even worse crisis. Darling noted that the UK govt expected to get their bank rescue funds back after 3 years. He reiterated that BOE has to be independent even during bad economic || German Banking Association lowered thier 2009 GDP forecast to 0.5% from its prior view of 1.0%. It maintained its 2008 GDP view of 1.9%. The Association added that it saw scope for an ECB interest rate cut. || Russian MICEX Executive says Russian capital market is overleveraged

-Says Russia is not immune to global crisis. The exchange has suspended trading until Friday.

- In Currencies: Risk aversion and de-leveraging remained the overall theme as the JPY became the main catalyst. Dealers noting that meltdown in the Nikkei 225 Index has triggered repatriation flows. The JPY is firmer across-the-board. USD/JPY broke below the 100 level And below now could target the 2008 low of 95.60 set back in March.. EUR/JPY tested below the 135 area, GBP/JPY down 500 pips to test 172 and AUD/JPY down 700+ pips at 64.60. The EUR/USD remained above the 1.36 level for bulk of the European session. RBS Analyst amends their ECB interest rate view; believes that ECB could cut rates at any time.

- In Energy: Iran Pres Ahmadinejad: Iran will resist sanctions over its nuclear work || Nov NYMEX crude down $4 to test$86 during the European morning, lowest level since Sept 2007. || Eni [ENI.IT] Signed oil, gas partnership agreement with Papua New Guinea and would start detailed program of exploration, data acquisition in country.

- In Fixed Income: Reportedly the receivership of Iceland's Landsbanki has triggered Europe's first CDS event in financial crisis - unconfirmed report|| Germany Sells EUR5.619B September 2010 Schatz with an average yield 3.03% and a bid-to-cover of 1.7 times. ||| Sweden sold SEK2B 5.5% bonds due 2012 with an average yield of 3.24%

|| Spread on 2-year/10-year UK Gilts widens to 70bps; most since July 2003 || Russian Fin Min Kudrin: Suspends OFZ bond auctions until the end of the year Central Banks continue with liquidity operations. ECB allotted $70B in one day dollar tender; received $122B worth of bids. The ECB allotted €50B in 6-month supplementary refi tender, bids total €113.8B, bid-to-cover 2.28x; SNB allotted $10B in daily overnight repo, received total of $14.4B and set a 1-wekk USD repo auction.

- Credit Crisis: In European the U.K. recapitalization program for the banking system dominated trade early Wednesday. The UK government formally announced its plan to invest as much as GBP 50B in its banking sector. Spain stated that it would also guarantees bank deposits. Asian equity market was; RTS broadly lower as global credit fears continue to mount. Nikkei 225 closed down 9.4% to 9,203 level and the European bouses are suffering as well with early losses over 6-7% for the major exchanges. ||Goldman sachs [GS] Announced it has closed GS Loan Partners I with $10.5B in equity and leverage commitments, including more than $1B of equity from the firm and its employees. || Swedish Riksbank: Changed collateral requirements for credit - 75% limit now removed || RBA will relax restrictions on use of banks' mortgage backed securities to ease fallout from credit crunch as it remained concerned that even "creditworthy borrowers" face difficulty raising money was cited by RBA governor Stevens as key reason for slashing rates by full percentage point - biggest cut since 1992. || Russian Lawmakers reportedly delaying anti-crisis bill until at least end of the week. || Hungary Central Bank Official Kiraly noted that Parent companies of Hungarian banks are relatively safe compared to other Euro banks.

*** NOTES ***

Equities market were taken to the 'wood shed and remain in negative territory but off their worst level. Markets demands coordinated interest rate cut even after recent steps by the FED on commercial paper and the UK bank rescue plan. There have been rumors circulating for some time but the impression is that central banks presents is that the financial economy not a real economy problem. The price action today has focused on its reeaction to the U.K. recapitalization program for the banking. Equity markets have collapsed as the program favors bondholders over those with an equity stake. Markets are still waiting for some sort of pan-European plan to support the European banking system. The G7 has a regularly scheduled meeting at the end of this week. Dealer chatter circulating that global equity markets would be close for a certain period following weekend G7 meeting but dealers were unclear which markets would be 'closed' if such action was implemented. All eyes on the Bank of England policy decision tomorrow.

Looking ahead:

7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 3: There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was -23%

10:00 (US) Aug Pending Home Sales. Consensus expectations for this number are -1.3%; The prior number was -3.2%

 

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