In equities: Novartis [NOVN.SZ] stated that a phase 2 data showed potential for
Glivec to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension, but missed core focus. Stops
clinical trials of Glivec in IPF || Sansbury [SBRY.UK] Reported Q2 SSS (ex
fuel) +4.3% compared to analyst estimates of 4%. Total sales were up 8.4%. Says
customers are buy more low cost products and sees strong sales in non-food
products. Sansbury noted that the economy remained challenging and expect
condition to remain tough into H2 but is well positioned for Christmas shopping
period. || Uniq [UNIQ.UK] Guided its Q3 sales in line y/y, but saw significant
deterioration since July due to economic conditions. The company warned of H2
loss as conditions continue to deteriorate. || Renault [RNO.FR] Reportedly
planning 3K voluntary departures plus 1K at Sandouville location || Carillion
[CLLN.UK] Awarded ÂŁ100M worth of contracts. || HBOS [HBOS.UK] HBOS.UK: Stated
that its proposed acquisition by Lloyds is still on track and that its detailed
integration planning is making good progress.
- Speakers: German Fin Min Steinbrueck stated in a letter to US Treasury's
Paulson that markets are still far from being â€śout of the woodsâ€ť and called for
for a global ban on certain short selling activities. The minister noted that
prompt central bank actions have eased problems but restoring confidence would
be the biggest challenge || ECB's Nowotny noted that the ECB has remained on
sidelines but is discussing economy and inflationary development. He added that
the financial markets need clear regulations and noted that Ireland
have triggered a number of promises. The ECB must provide price stability and
liquidity during crisis. Nowotny added that bank bailout are a government
business and that restructuring of banks is a job for governments ||Japan's Fin
Min Nakagawa stated that recent currency moves in USD/JPY have not been
volatile. He added that they must confront market view regarding Japanese
economy || ECB's Provopoulos stated that the Euro Zone GDP growth would likely
stay low in 2009 and could continue decelerating. He stated that the full
impact of economic crisis has yet to be felt. However, Euro Zone inflation
should stay high for several months before easing gradually. The Euro's
strength has begun to impact the export growth. ECB is vigilant on ensuring
stability in financial markets || South Korean Fin Min Shin noted that its
currency depreciation has been excessive but the situation is totally different
from 1997 crisis. He added that Korea's
current account balance should improve eventually. || UK PM Brown stated that
looking for cooperation at macro level with G7 World financial market has
stopped functioning; intervention gets to the heart of the problem and noted
that more than provide liquidity and buy up toxic bank assets || UK's Darling
stated that the UK Govt would charge a fee for interbank loan guarantees and
that major intervention was needed to avoid an even worse crisis. Darling noted
that the UK
govt expected to get their bank rescue funds back after 3 years. He reiterated
that BOE has to be independent even during bad economic || German Banking
Association lowered thier 2009 GDP forecast to 0.5% from its prior view of
1.0%. It maintained its 2008 GDP view of 1.9%. The Association added that it
saw scope for an ECB interest rate cut. || Russian MICEX Executive says Russian
capital market is overleveraged
-Says Russia is not immune to global crisis. The exchange has suspended trading
- In Currencies: Risk aversion and de-leveraging remained the overall theme as
the JPY became the main catalyst. Dealers noting that meltdown in the Nikkei
225 Index has triggered repatriation flows. The JPY is firmer across-the-board.
USD/JPY broke below the 100 level And below now could target the 2008 low of
95.60 set back in March.. EUR/JPY tested below the 135 area, GBP/JPY down 500
pips to test 172 and AUD/JPY down 700+ pips at 64.60. The EUR/USD remained
above the 1.36 level for bulk of the European session. RBS Analyst amends their
ECB interest rate view; believes that ECB could cut rates at any time.
- In Energy: Iran
Pres Ahmadinejad: Iran
will resist sanctions over its nuclear work || Nov NYMEX crude down $4 to
test$86 during the European morning, lowest level since Sept 2007. || Eni
[ENI.IT] Signed oil, gas partnership agreement with Papua
New Guinea and would start detailed program
of exploration, data acquisition in country.
- In Fixed Income: Reportedly the receivership of Iceland's
Landsbanki has triggered Europe's first CDS event in
financial crisis - unconfirmed report|| Germany Sells EUR5.619B September 2010
Schatz with an average yield 3.03% and a bid-to-cover of 1.7 times. ||| Sweden
sold SEK2B 5.5% bonds due 2012 with an average yield of 3.24%
|| Spread on 2-year/10-year UK Gilts widens to 70bps; most since July 2003 ||
Russian Fin Min Kudrin: Suspends OFZ bond auctions until the end of the year
Central Banks continue with liquidity operations. ECB allotted $70B in one day
dollar tender; received $122B worth of bids. The ECB allotted â‚¬50B in 6-month
supplementary refi tender, bids total â‚¬113.8B, bid-to-cover 2.28x; SNB allotted
$10B in daily overnight repo, received total of $14.4B and set a 1-wekk USD
- Credit Crisis: In European the U.K.
recapitalization program for the banking system dominated trade early
Wednesday. The UK
government formally announced its plan to invest as much as GBP 50B in its
banking sector. Spain
stated that it would also guarantees bank deposits. Asian equity market was;
RTS broadly lower as global credit fears continue to mount. Nikkei 225 closed
down 9.4% to 9,203 level and the European bouses are suffering as well with
early losses over 6-7% for the major exchanges. ||Goldman sachs [GS] Announced
it has closed GS Loan Partners I with $10.5B in equity and leverage
commitments, including more than $1B of equity from the firm and its employees.
|| Swedish Riksbank: Changed collateral requirements for credit - 75% limit now
removed || RBA will relax restrictions on use of banks' mortgage backed
securities to ease fallout from credit crunch as it remained concerned that
even "creditworthy borrowers" face difficulty raising money was cited
by RBA governor Stevens as key reason for slashing rates by full percentage
point - biggest cut since 1992. || Russian Lawmakers reportedly delaying
anti-crisis bill until at least end of the week. || Hungary Central Bank
Official Kiraly noted that Parent companies of Hungarian banks are relatively
safe compared to other Euro banks.
*** NOTES ***
Equities market were taken to the 'wood shed and remain in negative territory
but off their worst level. Markets demands coordinated interest rate cut even
after recent steps by the FED on commercial paper and the UK bank rescue plan.
There have been rumors circulating for some time but the impression is that
central banks presents is that the financial economy not a real economy
problem. The price action today has focused on its reeaction to the U.K.
recapitalization program for the banking. Equity markets have collapsed as the
program favors bondholders over those with an equity stake. Markets are still
waiting for some sort of pan-European plan to support the European banking
system. The G7 has a regularly scheduled meeting at the end of this week. Dealer
chatter circulating that global equity markets would be close for a certain
period following weekend G7 meeting but dealers were unclear which markets
would be 'closed' if such action was implemented. All eyes on the Bank of
England policy decision tomorrow.
(US) MBA Mortgage Applications
w/e Oct 3: There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior
number was -23%
(US) Aug Pending Home Sales.
Consensus expectations for this number are -1.3%; The prior number was -3.2%
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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