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Friday October 10, 2008 - 10:22:44 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Equity markets in free fall; all eyes looking towards G7 for solutions

Today 05:58am

European Market Update: Equity markets in free fall; all eyes looking towards G7 for solutions


- (SZ) Switzerland Sept Unemployment Rate: 2.4% v 2.4%;Unemployment Rate SA: 2.6% v 2.5%e

- (FR) France Aug Industrial Production M/M: -0.4% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: -2.6% v -2.6%

- (FR) Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.5% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v-3.1%

- (DE) Denmark Sept CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.0%

- (DE) Denmark Sept CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%; Y/Y: 4.5% v 4.3%e

- (NE) Netherlands Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v 0.0%e

- ( NE) Netherlands Aug Industrial Sales Y/Y: 3.2% -2.6% prior

- (IT) Aug Industrial Production M/M: 1.4% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: -5.3% v -4.0; Y/Y:

- (NO) Norway Sept Producer Prices incl Oil M/M: -0.4% v -1.8%e; Y/Y: 30.3% v 28.5%e

- (NO) Norway Sept CPI M/M: 1.5% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 4.6%

- (No) Norway Sept Underlying CPI M/M: 1.0% v % v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.8%e;

- (SW) Sweden Sept AMV Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.0%


In equities: Reportedly SEC extended its Short Selling ban until Oct 17th (unconfirmed reports)

Barclays [BARC.UK] Confirmed it was considering several options, including raising capital to the industry-wide commitment to increase Tier 1 capital in the sector || RPS Group [RPS.UK] Announced acquisition of Paras for £6.4 million. || Admiral Group [ADM.UK] stated that its YTD Revenues were up 13% y/y at £718M and added that it wason track to hit or exceed 2008 estimates. The company noted that its balance sheet remained strong || Tele2 [TEL2B.SW] Stated that it would take a SEK943B goodwill impairment charge in Q3. || Severstal [CHMF.RU] Announced a reduction in its steel production in Russia, North America and Europe facilities in October citing the changing global economic conditions. The company noted that it would reduce Cherepovets steel production by 25%. It stated it is reviewing its full year guidance issued with its 1H08 results and will update the market in due course. || British Energy [BGY.UK] provided BCU update; notes work on reactors is going well but that Hartlepool, Heysham 1 reactors are behind schedule and not likely to return until next year, which would result higher than £115M. || Gold Field [GFI] Guided Q1 2009 production lower, 798k oz v 820k prior, citing slower production at Cerro Corona. The group cash costs are expected to be in line with previous guidance, at approximately R154,000/kg (618/oz) and is on track to meet 1M ounces production level by Q309 || Rhodia [RHA.FR] RHA.FR: Announced plans to buyback up to 2M shares (2% of shares outstanding). || Man AG [MAN.GE] CEO stated that it saw a 10% decline in Truck business unit for 2009 and reiterated 100K truck deliveries target for 2008 || Unicore [UMI.BE] Maintained its FY guidance ans sought holder approval to cancel 5M shares. It added that it saw 2008 as a record year

- Company is planning to complete remaining buyback of €70M worth of shares but did note a noticeable slowdown in their automotive sector || Erste Bank [EBS.AS] EBS.AS: Confirmed that it had €300M in exposure to Iceland. || Wincorp [WIN.GE] CEO stated that its Fiscal year sales were up 8% y/y and would reach the upper end of forecasts. The company plans to increase FY dividend. || Norddeutsche Affiner [NDA.GE] stated that Salzgitter [SZG.GE] holds 20% stake in co. || Deutsche PostBank [DBP.GE] CEO stated that there wereno negative effects at this time which could prevent or halt Deutsche Bank agreement . The company also stated it would maintain its 2010 targets

- Speakers: German regulator BaFin stated that the stability of German Insurance sector not threatened. The regulator noted that recent insurance surveys showed that the impact of financial crisis has limited been limited, but added that nurturance companies could expect significantly lower investment results || Germany DIW Institute forecasted German Q4 GDP to increase by 0.3% || China PBoC stated that its country's financial system wa stable and safe. China seeks to increase domestic demand and promote international payments balance. PBoC stated that it was not optimistic over global economic outlook. It reiterated its plans to remain flexible concerning their macroeconomic policy; need to coordinate money, fiscal, trade, industry policies. || German Fin Ministry spokesperson noted that not currently mulling any nationalization of banks || World Bank Head stated that countries must focus on bad financial sector assets. He added that the recent round of coordinated interest rate cuts will take time to work through.

- In Currencies: The CHF was broadly firmer on risk aversion flows against the major pairs. USD/CHF was off 100+ pips to test below the 12 level; EUR/CHF was off almost 200 pips in early European trading at 1.5160. The EUR/USD was steady for the most part hugging the 1.36 area. Regulators in South Korea to reportedly require banks to disclose the fx transactions records with customers. Dealers noting that the move possible in line with President Myung-bak's comments that recent depreciation of currency had been a result of speculative moves in the FX market. If proposal is carried out, would be the first time the Central Bank has asked for this type of information from private and commercial banks

- In Energy: IEA: lowered it world oil demand for both 2008 and 2009 adding that demand has weakened due high prices and from the ensuing economic slowdown . IEA cuts its 2008 global oil demand growth forecast By -250K BPD and its 2009 global oil demand forecast by -190K BPD. It noted that China's 20 08 was demand seen steady with growth of 8.0M BPD and its 2009 outlook looks firm. The IEA warned that the financial Fallout io hit oil project development as world oil demand Growth headed towards 15-Year low on credit crisis concerns ||Oil Qatar Oil Min: Confirmed that OPEC would discuss reducing oil supply during November's meeting || Libya confirmed the withdrawal of $7B in deposits from Swiss Banks after recently halted oil shipments into Switzerland. Reportly Libyan actions are a response to 'poor treatment of Libyan diplomats and businessmen by the canton of Geneva || Libya reiterates that OPEC should cut oil production at Nov meeting

- In Fixed Income: India Central bank canceled a planned INR100B bond auction || Norwegian Fin Min Extended Repo operations to NOK6B from NOK 3B prior. || France announced that it would sell up to €5.5B in bonds and notes in Oct

- Credit Crisis: India Central Bank cuts its cash reserve ratio by 150bps to 7.50%. Originally on Oct 6th, the central bank announced a 50bps cut to 8.50% effective on the Oct 11th, but implemented a more aggressive cut today. || Russian Central Bank reportedly revoked banking license, citing liquidity concerns. Russia revoked the license of ZAO Eurasia-Center bank withdrawn after failure to settle client accounts. || South Korean Brokerage Heads agreed to halt selling foreign financial instruments || Swiss Interim Fin Min reportedly stated that the govt was considering raising the level of guarantees on bank deposits .The official added that it was clear that the financial markets and economic crisis would have an impact on the Swiss economy, but she expects that the country will be less impacted than other countries. The current guarantee level is CHF30K ($26,584)

*** NOTES ***

European equity market followed Asia and the late US equity price action on the downside. The Nikkei had its worst week on record as it lost over 2500 points to close at 8,276. Both the FTSE 100 index and DAX opened 10% lower before recovering and the Swiss franc currency seems to be getting its 'safe have' status back. Rumors circulated that the SEC re-imposed the ban on short selling that traders seems to have picked up and continued questions about exactly how the payment of the Lehman Credit default swaps ($400bln) would play out. The key barometer of European market sentiment so far on remains the performance of key equity indices. They are currently in a near “meltdown mode” following an abysmal performance late in the U.S. yesterday and a heavy sell off in the Far East today. All eyes turning toward G7 as the finance minister gather to convene today at 18:00 GMT in Washington. There were rumors of a formal G8 summit of World leaders should be called soon to discuss the financial market situation.

- But dealers are skeptical as to what the central banks and politicians can do. Dealer summarizing the 'panic' as being driven by the vicious cycle of continuing deleveraging, margin related calls coupled with declining fundamentals. As G7 convenes there are calls f for another round of coordinated interest rate cuts and speculation that currency intervention could result. Ideas range from blanket guarantees of all deposits, freezes on foreclosures and unlimited massive liquidity injections, public provision of credit, massive direct govt stimulus, public recapitalization of banking system, borrow lender agreements at the country level to maintain orderly financing of deficits. But a head dealer in Europe noted that “most of this has already been announced”

-Looking ahead:

General Electric [GE] kicks off the rush to earnings season. Back on Sept 25th the company cut its FY08 EPS $1.95-2.10 compared to $2.20e, which was prior guidance of $2.20-2.30 which was reaffirmed 3 times this year.

- 7:00 (CA) Sept Net Change in Employment: 10.0Ke v prior 15.2K; Unemployment Rate: 6.2%e v 6.1% prior

-8:30 (US) Aug Trade Balance. Consensus expectations are -$59.0B. The prior number was -$62.2B

-8:30 (US) Aug Import Price Index. M/M consensus expectations are -2.8%; The prior number was -3.7%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 12.2%; The prior number was 16.0%.

- G7 Finance Minister meet in Washington DC at 18:00 GMT



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