Markets stared into the abyss this morning as the Dow plunged nearly
800 points and then rapidly sliding below 8000 in the first ten minutes
of trading in very heavy volume. This dramatic move sparked a buying
frenzy that rocketed indices back into positive territory for a short
time, and not surprisingly had many market prognosticators discussing
the ever fleeting notion of capitulation. Multiple market barometers
continue to hit historic levels, including the Vix, which has extended
its string of record highs, hitting 70.9 after the open in a sign of
extremely elevated levels of stress. The three-month USD LIBOR fixing
also hit new record highs, climbing to 4.82%, slightly above
yesterday's record high. The overnight fixing has been cut in half,
although commentators are disregarding this move due to the Fed's
massive liquidity actions. The US three-month TED spread has found a
footing above 450 basis points while the yield on the three-month
T-bill is hovering below 0.3%. The bottom has seemingly fallen out of
crude, with WTI crude down more than $4.50 around $82/bbl; selected oil
names are suffering, with XOM and CVX down 8-10%. The major financials
opened lower (Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs opened down more than
10% a piece). Major banks and financials outside of Morgan and Goldman
immediately saw buyers pounce after the open as the group led the eye
popping rebound in equity markets. Traders are focusing on today's
Lehman Holding CDS auction, with results due around 2pm ET. The initial
value of the securities was set at $0.0975/dollar, and they were
reportedly trading around $0.12-0.13/dollar ahead of auction. This
initial look at the results has tempered much of the enthusiasm brought
about by the equity reversal but indices remain well off of early
multi-year lows. Spokesmen from both MS and Mitsubishi UFJ have
strenuously insisted that Mitsubishi's planned investment is on track
and moving forward, although investors still seem to be betting that
the deal will fall apart and turn MS into the next victim of the
crisis. The WSJ wrote overnight that if Morgan Stanley survives, it
could represent a key milestone for finding a bottom in equities.
Yesterday evening Citigroup gave up on attempts to prevent Wells Fargo
from acquiring Wachovia; the Fed noted that while there were still some
outstanding issues with the deal, it would immediately move to clear
the merger. Wachovia said it was "pleased" that Citi walked away from
its offer. GE reported third-quarter results in-line with expectations
before the bell; the firm also reiterated its full-year guidance and
maintained its dividend. CEO Immelt insisted that he believes the
dividend is safe, and that if the economy is not as bad as feared
full-year earnings could come in at the high end of the predicted
range. He also noted that GE plans to continue originating commercial
financing. More firms are cutting guidance ahead of earnings, with
retailer CHRS-18%, tech firm CPWR-16% and broadline M-6% leading the
way down after revising their forecasts. Investors are responding well
to LNC+10% preannoucing its third-quarter results. The regional bank
said quarterly EPS results would be well below estimates, but also
insisted that the firm has plenty of liquidity to back up their
commitments. In other news, more efforts are being made to develop a
clearinghouse for credit-default swaps, with the Fed meeting with major
industry players to discuss creating such an institution. ICE said it
has signed an LOI with several players to establish a CDS
clearinghouse, although the effort seems to be a very preliminary deal.
The currency market was reduced to a sideshow during the New York
morning as panic gripped markets, driven by the vicious cycle of
continuing deleveraging, margin calls and declining fundamentals. The
USD/CAD broke above the 1.18 despite a "better" September employment
report in which 107K jobs were created. CAD weakened in the aftermath
of the data released as dealers noted that almost 97K of those jobs
were 'part-timers'. The drop in crude oil prices also weight upon the
commodity-currency related pairs. The JPY was softer among the major
crosses as the European and US equity markets moved off session lows.
EUR/JPY at 135.70, up 167 pips and EUR/CHF at 1.5185, lower by 161 pips
from Asian opening levels.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
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Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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