Tuesday December 7, 2004 - 01:26:35 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc December 7th 2004 Price: ... 1.1408
Resistance: 1.1428 ... 1.1444 ... 1.1458 ... 1.1480
Support....: 1.1357 ... 1.1340 ... 1.1299 ... 1.1268
While 1.1458 holds any strength we feel the greater risk is lower today
Yesterday's recovery was much deeper than expected but we are beginning to see potential for a larger correction. This should keep price from rallying above 1.1458 and thus a bullish stance is only valid on a break of this resistance which would then allow follow-through to 1.1480 and probably a retest of 1.1557. Further resistance is found at 1.1608.
Although yesterday's recovery was deeper than expected we continue to prefer a more bearish stance today. This should see any test higher contained by 1.1428-58 and the first sign of a reversal lower will be on a break below 1.1340. Once this occurs look for losses to continue lower towards the 1.1299 low and to 1.1268 at least. Take care at this level as it does have potential to support but we should allow for a dip as far as 1.1232. Thus only below 1.1230 would trigger further direct losses with 1.1183-97 the next support.
Elliott Wave Comments:
December 6th 2004
The failure at 1.1557 provides us with a slight conundrum in that the correction from 1.1322 occurred as a Double zig-zag and cannot be viewed as the Wave c of an expanded flat correction. This would actually suggest that the 1.1322 low was the end of a daily Wave -iii- lower and that 1.1557 completed Wave -iv-. However, this in itself is quite unusual since it would imply that the move from 1.1322 to 1.1557 was actually the full extent of the correction to the decline from 1.2682 which seems much too brief. We should be aware of the chance of an expanded flat correction within Wave -iv- which would see support at 1.1268 (max 1.1232) and a second test of the 1.1557 area. But that would be the extent of the move. Otherwise this wave count has fairly direct bearish implications. Given the brief nature of the move to 1.1557 we therefore do need to be a little cautious and watch key support areas at 1.1232-67 and 1.1183-97 but much below that and the historic 1.1100 low looks quite bearish.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."