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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Armageddon or opportunity???

Today 05:53am
European Market Update: Armageddon or opportunity???

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (CH) China China Trade surplus for Sept $29.3B vs $24.5Be; Exports: 21.5% v 20.0%e; Imports: 21.3% v 22.9%e

- 2:45 (FR) France Aug Current Account: -€4.2B v -€4B

- 3:15 (SZ) Switzerland Sept Producer & Import Prices M/M: -0.5% v -0.3%; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.9%e

- 4:30 (UK) Sept PPI Input M/M: -1.2% v -1.5%e; Y/Y: 24.5% v 19.8%e; PPI Output M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 8.5% v 8.8%e; PPI Output Core M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% e; Y/Y: 5.4% v 6.0%e

- 5:50 (NE) Netherlands to sell up to EUR12B in extra auction.



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: HBOS.UK [HBOS.UK] Lloyds revised acquisition terms. HBOS share holders will be granted 0.605 Lloyds share for 1 HBOS share, Co's to raise £17B in capital || Royal bank of Scotland [RBS.UK] Planed to raise £20B in capital, I a deal underwritten by UK Govt. It announced the departure of its CEO. The UK Treasury would buy £5B in preferred stock at 65.5p/shr. The bank would further raise £15B in ordinary shares in measures aimed at raising tier-1 capital ratio. RBS would continue disposal program, identifying non core assets. Lastly no dividend will be paid on ordinary shares until the Preference Shares have been repaid. It is the Board's intention to repay the Preference Shares as soon as possible || Barclays [BARC.UK] To raise £6.5B in Tier 1 capital and added that it would not pay final dividend for 2008. The Board expected that the additional capital will be raised from investors without calling on the government funding which has been offered to UK banks. Issue of preference shares is to raise £3B by December 31. its intention is to resume dividend payments in the second half of 2009. || Philips Electronics [PHIA.NV] Reported Q3 Rev €6.3B below analvst estimates of €6.72B. its ; Net €357M vjust above estimates of €352Me. The company noted that it would slow down it €5B share repurchase program. It remained cautious on Q4 end-market demand and cited weaker consumer demand in mature markets || Deutz [DEZ.GE] Revised its 2008 outlook on engine sales putting the figure now at 260K compared to 286K y/y;. the company stated that it saw Chinese growth slowing down. It sees 2008 revenue to grow 2% and guided 2% FY EBIT margin. || Telefonica [TEF.SP] Reaffirmed all 2008 ragets and announced an additional 50M shares to its share repurchase program. || Premier Foods [PFD] Confirmed discussions to reduce debt and that its trading was in line with expectations. The company stated it was in talks with private equity groups to secure cash injection in most recent attempt to sure up balance sheet || Standard Chartered [STAN.UK] Stated that it met UK capital requirements and would not participate in UK govt recapitilization plan , although it welcomed the decisive action taken by the UK Government to stabilize the UK banking system as a whole. || Tui [Tui.GE] Reportedly confirmed sale of its Hapag-Lloyd shipping unit to Hamburg-led Consortium for €4.45B. It plans to pay an undisclosed special dividend to investors with some of the proceeds and spend €700M to buyback a stake in the shipper. || Aztrazeneca [AZN.UK] CEO stated that its IPO and venture capital options are falling as financial crisis reduced access to capital. The chief added that pricing will be challenging in the future

- Speakers: ECB's Wellink stated that State puts money into good companies; they will always have positive returns. Notes Netherlands' support for its financial system can go quite far and is confident that support for financial system will work. - Says declining price pressure made interest rate cut possible || (EU) ECB's Stark: Coordinated rate cut was a signal to markets. declining price pressure made interest rate cut possible || ECB'S Bini Smaghi: ECB will not substitute private banking firms or take over commercial paper lending and noted that there would not be another Lehman Brothers || Poland Central Bank Gov stated that its Gov't should reconsider date for entering Eurozone. The official stated that the Polish banking system has no liquidity problems, but ready to act if liquidity issues arise. Interms of monetary policy, the central bank sees lots of arguments justifying need for interest rate cutbut would wait for Oct. inflation projection and Q3 economic data. It did not there are several reasons to at least suspend potential rate increase. || UK's Darling stated that Banks receiving govt funds would have to increase their offering of mortgage and small business lending and added that the UK was experiencing extraordinary times and that the UK bank takeover plan was a crucial step, adding that banks must be run on a commercial basis and that the stabilization and reconstruction are govt aims. the taxpayers would not lose out on their investment. Lastly other global governments should follow the example of the BoE || SNB's Roth said the SNB may cut rates if the economy worsens. Bank must strengthen capital base and reduce debts || ECB's Noyer stated that the current financial crisis is a major test for valuation frameworks and stated that market based valuation is as good as market's performances || Swedish PM Reinfeldt said that Sweden is taking measures to fight the financial crisis, including bank guarantees. He added that the Government was considering increasing deposit guarantees and that the EU accord was a first and most crucial step. Lastly taxpayers should not have to pay for the measures enacted to combat the financial market crisis

- In currencies: The USD and carry-related pairs retraced some of their storng price movements seen last week on the bank of the UK and European bailout plans. EUR/USD back above the 1.36 handle while EUR/JPY probe the 137 area. EUR/CHF testing the 1.54 neighborhood.. ECB's Bini Smaghi stated that the Euro would maintain its strong currency status and that the last couple months do not reflect long-term trend. The ECB member noted that EUR/USD at $1.55 was "too high." Russia may change interest rates but no plans to amend its rouble trading band.

- In energy: A Saudi Aramco official said the company will maintain and ship contracted oil supplies to Asia in November. It noted that it would cut supplies to Europe in the next month. || Reportedly, Goldman Sachs has been restricted from making a market in price assessment agency Platts' daily oil trading window as counterparty anxiety grows. However, However, the restrictions on its commodities trading arm J Aron are not as severe as those placed earlier on some rivals, who were effectively barred from participating in the window.

- In Fixed Income: The UK's DMO confirmed to raise £37B and reopen one short-dated gilt auction under new program. The agency would seek views on feasibility of fresh new benchmarks. It anticipated scheduling new auctions from Oct 20th through year-end and it sought views on merits of two auctions on given day

- Credit Crisis Update: The UK announced its plan to make tier 1 capital available to banks in a scheme valued at £37B. The govt will take steps to boost liquidity and aid in restructuring in various banking entities. ||EU approved Ireland bank guarantee plan. || German financial market rescue package reportedly totaling €470B in whiit would €400B in bank guarantees and another €70B in bank capital according to an unconfirmed draft bill || Goldman Sachs Analyst comment on the weekend proposal by the EU noting that the European bailout plan appears to be “comprehensive”. Russia Federation Council approves RUB950B and $50B rescue package || Reportedly Japan Fin Min is mulling guaranteeing all bank deposits || Itraxx Crossover Index at 690 bps; down 40bps from Friday || European bourses exhibited strong gains on the open. Dealers noting that advances are linked to financials so another round of rumors could impede fragile sentiment.

*** NOTES ***

- The initial market response has been positive to the G7, European and G20 comments but dealers note that the proposals so far are lacking specific key details. The widespread government intervention on a worldwide basis to prop up ailing banks looks likely to give equity traders some initial upward momentum. European equities surged over 6-7% in early trading but are slowly seeing these gains erode over the course of the morning. Government guaranteeing of bank lending has the key focus and rallying point. All eyes continue to watch the Libor fixing rates to see if the credit markets buy into the euphoria of the plan. The US cash bond market is closed due to a banking holiday while Japanese markets were also closed today. Corporate earnings will begin to pick up steam this week with several notable financial names to reports with JPM, C, MER, WF, BK expected to report this week. Focus also on the Morgan Stanley-Mitsubishi developments.



Looking ahead:

- 6:30 BOE's Sentence

- 8:00 US Treasury's Kashkari

- 8:00 US's Fed Hoenig

 

 

 

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