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Forex Research - Europeans Agree on Unified Plan, Markets Breathe a Sigh of Relief

Europeans Agree on Unified Plan, Markets Breathe a Sigh of Relief Last Updated 10/13/2008 5:28:15 AM EST (GMT +5)

Europeans Agree on Unified Plan, Guarantee Interbank Lending Equities Rally Sharply as Markets Breathe a Sigh of Relief

EZ officials surprised global markets today by agreeing to a coordinated program of stabilization including public guarantees of Interbank lending until December 31, 2009 and the right of member states to take preference equity positions in banks, effectively recapitalizing troubled financial institutions In the region.Meanwhile in UK PM Gordon Brown announced that the British government will take direct stakes in RBS and the new combination of HBOS/Lloyds while Barclay’s will attempt to go at it alone and raise private financing for additional capital.

The response from global equity markets to the latest policy initiatives from the G-4 officials was uniformly positive with Hang Seng, Footsie and DAX all up by more than 6%. The Nikkei was closed for a holiday but will likely play catch up tomorrow. In currencies, the latest news translated into a much sharper rise in risk appetite with the high yielders rising at the expense of the dollar and the yen. EUR/USD gapped higher by more than 100 points on the Asian open and climbed steadily afterward benefiting from both the rise in risk assumption and relief on the part of many market participants that EZ officials were able to coordinate an effective, unified policy plan in a region which though united monetarily is fractured politically.

As the credit crisis reached its crescendo last week, part of the EUR/USD weakness stemmed from the fact that traders doubted that EZ officials could act in a coordinated manner to combat the problems that brought EZ credit markets to a virtual halt. Indeed in the first two weeks of the crisis, with many member states acting unilaterally, the EZ appeared to be headed on beggar thy neighbor course of destruction and some analysts even wondered if the euro would survive. Tonight’s action however is the first positive step in the right direction and demonstrates the ability of officials to act in concert which should provide the EUR/USD with a boost of confidence for the time being.

Will the work of EZ and UK officials pay off?The answer to a large extent will depend on the response of US policymakers. After the disastrous market reaction to the ill-conceived Paulson plan, US officials must quickly amend their direction and follow the footsteps of their European and UK colleagues by injecting capital directly into the banking sector rather than buying up the inventory of MBS assets at inflated prices. Furthermore, much like the EZ authorities, US officials must also guarantee the LIBOR market and demand a quick move of all over the counter trading to a centralized exchange model to assure safety and solvency of trades.If those two steps are taken quickly, market confidence should return with investors much more likely to make bids for what are clearly grossly oversold assets.As risk aversion then recedes, the dollar and the yen are likely to lose more ground with carry trade flowsbeating out the flight-to-safety trade. However, the situation remains precarious and if US policy makers fail to act quickly, the risk liquidation dynamics of the last week could return with a vengeance as markets lose hope once again.

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About The Author

Schlossberg has more than 20 years experience financial trading on Wall Street. His daily currency research appears in numerous newspapers worldwide and Schlossberg serves as a regular contributor to CNBC's Squawk Box and Bloomberg radio and television. Read more >>

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. This forum and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Boris will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Boris do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

 

 

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