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Tuesday October 14, 2008 - 18:10:08 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 October 2008)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.3770 level and was supported around the $1.3575 level.  The common currency extended yesterday’s gains as global authorities continue to enact extraordinary policy measures in an attempt to restore market confidence and bolster liquidity.  The Federal Reserve announced it will begin purchasing highly-rated three-month commercial paper from 27 October to restore credit flows.  The Bush administration announced formal plans to spend at least US$ 250 billion on preferred equity from major financial institutions; the Treasury Department announced that nine banks will participate as of now.  Fed Chairman Bernanke reported the U.S. is in a recession.  Data released in the U.S. today saw August home prices decline 0.2% m/m and 11.6% y/y.  In eurozone news, EMU-15 August industrial output rose 1.1% m/m and fell 0.7%.  Also, the German October ZEW indicator fell more-than-expected.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.3320 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥103.05 level and was supported around the ¥101.80 level.  Technically, today’s intraday high was just below the 50% retracement of the move from ¥95.70 to ¥110.65.  The Japanese government unveiled plans to stabilize Japanese financial markets and authorities remain on “heightened alert.”  Bank of Japan’s Policy Board held an extraordinary meeting to discuss methods to improve monetary operations.  The overnight call rate target was left unchanged at 0.50% and the central bank will increase the size and frequency of its commercial paper repo operations.  Prime Minister Aso said the government plans to enact a secondary fiscal stimulus by the end of the current fiscal year in March 2009.  Data released in Japan overnight saw September annual wholesale inflation at 6.8%, reinforcing views that input costs are pushing up the corporate goods price index. Also, the September household sentiment index printed at 31.2, its worst level since 1982.  The Liberal Democratic Party could submit a candidate for the vacant BoJ Deputy Governorship position to Parliament tomorrow.  BoJ Governor Shirakawa reported he sees no need for the government to guarantee all bank deposits. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 14.15% to close at ¥9,447.57.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥103.05 level and was supported around the ¥101.80 level.  The British pound and Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested offers around the ¥181.30 and ¥91.25 level, respectively. The Chinese yuan depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8390 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8258.  It was reported that China’s foreign reserves were US$ 1.9056 trillion as of the end of September.  A government report said 2008 GDP growth may slow to 10.2% with CPI around 6.3%.

The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.7630 level and was supported around the $1.7330 level.  Technically, today’s intraday high was just above the 23.6% retracement of the move from US$ 2.0155 to $1.6790 level.  Sterling has been bid for a couple of days on the U.K. government’s plans to help manage the global credit crisis.  Data released in the U.K. today saw September consumer price inflation rise 5.2% y/y, up from 4.7% from August.  Many economists believe inflation will now begin a downward trend.  Other data saw RICS house sales fall to their lowest level in 30 years with a further decline in house prices. The government reported U.K. house prices fell an annualized 3.4% in August. Additionally, BRC like-for-like retail sales values were off 1.5% y/y. Cable bids are cited around the $1.6635 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.7760 level and was capped around the ₤0.7830 level.

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.1265 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1385 level.  A government official said Swiss National Bank and the government believe the economy can avoid a recession.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.1800 figure.  The euro and British pound moved higher vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested offers around the CHF 1.5555 and CHF 1.9935 levels, respectively.

 

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