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Wednesday October 15, 2008 - 10:30:55 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update

Today 05:59am

European Market Update

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (GE) Sept EU 25 New Car registrations: -8.4% v -15.7% prior

- (GE) Sept Final Consumer price index: M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9%e

- (GE) Sept Final CPI EU Harmonized: M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e

- (SW) Swedish Sept Average House Prices (SEK): 1.78M v 1.86M prior

- (SP) Spanish Q3 House Price Index Q/Q: -1.3% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 2.4%e

- (UK) Sept Claimant Count rate: 2.9% v 2.9%e; Jobless Claims Change: 31.8K v 36.0Ke

- (UK) Aug Avg earnings inc bonus: 3.4% v 3.5%e; Ex Bonus: 3.6% v 3.7%e; Manufact Unit wage Cost: 2.6% v 2.4% prior

- (UK) Aug ILO Unemployment rate: 5.7% v 5.6%e

- 5:00 (EU) Euro-Zone CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e

- (IC) Iceland Q3 Unemployment Rate: 2.5% v 3.1% prior

- (SA) S. Africa Aug Retail Sales Y/Y: -5.5% v -5.1%



- No Fixed income Supply

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

In equities: KBC [KBC.BE] KBC.BE: Reported Prelim Q3 Net Loss in a range of of €930 to 880M as it tool multiple writedowns. It expected to maintain Tier 1 ratio of 8.5%. It wrote down CDO investment portfolio following Moody's downgrade of CDO's and is expected to writedown €1.6B in Q3. it did note that the bank has sufficient capital to absorb writedowns. || ASML [ASML.NV] Reported Q3 Net profit of €73M versus consensus estimates of €65.5M. the revenues came in at €696M compared to expectations of €684Me. The company reported end-of-Q3 backlog: €1.02B versus €1.1B q/qand a gross margin rate of 38.1% v 40% q/q. It guided Q4 gross margin of 36%|| Suedzucker [SZU.GE] Reported Q2 Revenues of €1.53B v €1.56Be and a net profit €15.3M v €33M year ago. It Reaffirmed FY earnings forecast of €5.8-6.0B range versus consensus estimates of €5.77Be (prior co. guidance was €5.8B) || Addex Pharmaceuticals [ADXN.SZ] Study shows Parkinson's Product is Progressing in Early Clinical Trials. The company completed the first part of a two-part Phase I clinical trial to evaluate the newly developed modified release formulation of ADX48621. It is scheduled to start a Phase IIa proof of concept study for the treatment of levodopa associated dyskinesia in Parkinson's disease during the first half of 2009. || SaFran [SAF.FR] Will purchase Motorola's s Biometrics unit and sees the deal closing in Q109 || GEA Group [G1A.GE: Announced amulti-year investment program in which it would invest €160M in Europe and Asia. || Autonomy [AU.UK] Reported Q3 Revenues of $127.1M versus $123.5M expectations. It Net profit came in at $33.4m v $33.4Me. || Experian [EXPN.UK] Provided a trading update. The H1 Organic rev growth was seen up 3% compared to market expectations of + 2%. The company announced the sale of its transaction processing activities in France for €203M and noted that it is not the time to divest its Pricegrabber unit. H1 Total Sales growth at actual FX rates 13%; at constant FX rates 11% || Daimler [DAI.GE] Moody's affirmed A3/P-2 credit ratings, but lowered outlook to stable from positive. The outlook change to stable from positive reflects the increasingly worsening global car and truck markets that are likely to persist in 2009 and are expected to negatively impact the operating performance of the company ||BEA Systems [BA.UK] Stated that its trading remained inline with prior expectations and that its EBITDA was benefiting from recent GBP/USD weakness . It anticipated growth outlook for 2008 was benefiting from the high demand for armored wheeled vehicles in the groups land & armaments business. the groups net cash/debt has been adversely impacted by exchange movements on its dollar-denominated borrowings but expected to return to operational cash inflows by H2. || Pearson [PSON.UK] Reported 9 month sales up 8% led by N. American Educational Group. It is set to make double digit margin growth for FY08 with group sales up 11% with constant FX. Overall its trading was in-line with expectations. || Hennes & Mauritz [HMB.SW] Reported Sept SSS -2% v +12% y/y. Its Total Sales were up 10% compared to +25% year ago. || Glaxo [GSK.UK] purchased Bristol Meyer's Egyptian mature product unit for $210M which allowed them to obtain 20 branded products that occupy leading market positions in four therapeutic disease areas in Egypt || Hannover re [HNR1.GE] Spokesperson stated that the company did not intend to use German govt rescue package funds || Munich Re [MUV2.GE] CEO stated that company would withstand current financial crisis and that the situation would provide opportunities. He added that the crisis was still not over, interbank market has not yet picked up since legislation has not passed yet. Markets would rebound when liquidity returns, but this will not occur overnight. Lastly he did not see German insurers using German govt rescue package. || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Alcan unit noted that power prices would lag oil prices by 1-2 yrs. It noted liquidity worries worsen as aluminum soldl-off. The unit planned to make small production cutbacks citing weak prices and added that it did not make sense to buy nor build aluminum operations.

- Speakers: French PM Fillon stated that France is not immune to systemic risks but that its economy could recover in FY09 if the US tackles crisis. Lastly the PM noted that the bank rescue would not cost taxpayers any money || Irish Fin Ministry stated that its State bank guarantee would cost banks 10% of their profits . The Ministry will release additional details of its cost plan later today and will include measures to curb executive pay structures || Swedish Central Bank: Decision to cut interest rates at Oct 8th emergency meeting was unanimous - Minutes || German Chancellor Merkel stated that risks from the financial market remain and that any economic dowturn would be short-term in nature. She added that the German Gov't acted to protect its citizens, not the bank interests . the rescue package was first step to market 'constitution' but that new international rules for financial system required. She urged the IMF to play an increased role in supervising financial system

- In Currencies: The price action was mixed and choppy for the most part in Europe today as the focus remained on the performance of equity markets and sentiment regarding global growth. Softer equity markets for the most part are helping the JPY in the session. USD/JPY is trading at 101.15, off some 40 pips from opening levels in Asia. EUR/JPY is at 137.60, off 10 pips from the Asian open. Lower oil prices and firmer Gold is causing a mix price action for commodity currencies.

- In Energy: Kuwaiti Oil Labor Union called on all workers in every sector for strike at State Refinery KNPC this weekend. The State Refinery KNPC declined to comment over union strike call || Iran's OPEC Governor Expected the cartel to cut production at Nov 18 meeting adding that it is not satisfied with current prices. The official stated that falling oil prices could impact CAPEX investment for new oil production || StatoilHydro [STL.NO} Increased its investment estimate for its Snohvit gas field in the Barents Sea. It noted that 1st phase investment would rise by by NOK3B. the company would make final decision on challenges next year. || Nigeria President Yar'adua stated that the country would act on Niger delta situation despite constitutional constraints || Financial Times reporting that Iraqi Deputy Oil Min Mohammad-Reza Nematzadeh had been fired and that no reason was given for his removal. || Venezuela's El Palito refinery (130K bpd) operations were normal despite the tropical storm Omar || Oil Analyst PFC Energy stated that they saw OPEC cutting output by 1M at Nov 18th meeting , which be a 3% production cut.

-In Fixed Income: BoE allotted $10.B in overnight Repo operation; avg yield 1.34%, bid-to-cover 1.19x



*** NOTES ***

The equity markets coming off its recent euphoria of the various sovereign financial market bailout packages as reality sets in that economic growth outlook will weaker for some time. The overnight S&P encountered some 'air pockets in early Asia as it gapped some 20 handle towards the 985 area Dealer chatter of Hedge fund liquidations and margin calls providing the fuel for the drop. Some of the early European dealing focused on talk that some of the CE4 may have to ask the IMF for funding due to tight credit conditions. Some comments from a few non-voting Fed members. Fed's Yellen noted that the: US appeared to be in a recession. Fed Bullard: Further Fed cuts wouldn't do much good. US house prices not unreasonable, may not have much more to fall. In Canada the Conservatives retained power but with a minority of seats

Looking ahead: US earnings moving into a higher gear with JP Morgan [JPM] and Wells Fargo [WFC] among the notable to report before the bell. Other earnings include Abbott labs [ABT]; Blackrock [BLK]; Delta Airline [DAL] and Charles Schwab [SCHW]. On the data front, the US retail sales and PPI data will be the morning highlight.

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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