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Tuesday December 7, 2004 - 13:33:12 GMT

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GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary for Tuesday, December 07, 2004

GFT Daily Commentary by Cornelius Luca, currencies analyst, Global Forex Trading - Source:

The dollar consolidated near its lows for the downtrend versus the European currencies, with only dollar/Swiss franc posted a discernable gain on Monday. Concerns that the Bank of Japan will be more inclined to intervene than the ECB helped dollar/yen recover most of the losses it incurred on Friday. European finance ministers uttered standard complaints about the strength of the euro, but traders were not impressed. Only an ECB intervention, backed by the Fed, would signal the end of the downtrend. What are the odds of that happening? But the dollar is heavily oversold, and a sharp recovery, even if temporary, can happen at the drop of the hat.


The euro/dollar failed to match its new lifetime high of 1.3459 and made instead a weak decline on Monday.

If it can mount a corrective decline, it will smash the immediate support at 1.3384 and test of the 1.3330 area. Only a break on a closing basis below 1.3270 would accelerate long liquidation.

If the pair can resume its strength within its very strong uptrend, then it will break above the 1.3467 extension level and reach the 1.3520 area. Further resistance remains at 1.3555. Distant resistance is seen only at 1.3710.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/yen made a powerful enough recovery on Monday to erase its losses incurred in the previous day. However, there is little else evident on the chart outside choppy trading, with one day up and one day down, all suggesting fake (so far) breakouts. For now, the pair is still hovering near its lowest levels in 4 Ĺ years. But general support comes from the threat of intervention by the Bank of Japan, which has proved to be very aggressive over the years.

The key resistance to follow today is the 50-point pivot at 103.40, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. A close above its 20-day moving average at around 103.85 would be the first one in four weeks and it would be very bullish. Strong further resistance looms at 104.30.

The key support level to watch remains 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Below 101.80, the target of a long-term triangle, support remains at 101.24, the low formed back in November 1999.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish


Sterling/dollar remains heavily overbought after drifting to a new high for the uptrend at 1.9440, but the risk of a sizeable downward correction is increasing.

Support is seen at 1.9330 and a break below this level would trigger a decline to the area between 1.9230 and 1.9210. Further support is at 1.9175.

If cable ignores once again its overbought status, then expect a break above 1.9440 on its way to the target of bull flag at 1.9486. Strong resistance then remains at 1.9525 and at 1.9550.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

One day after collapsing to a new nine-year low of 1.1298, dollar/Swiss recovered on Monday. While this was the meatiest of the dollarís recovery against the European currencies, it wasnít enough yet to signal the end of the downtrend.

Nevertheless, dollar/Swiss franc will now likely test the resistance at 1.1460 and a break above this level would signal a rally to the 1.1510 and 1.1555 levels. Further resistance then comes at 1.1630 and then at 1.1695.

Should the recovery peter out, then the pair would fall and retest the support at 1.1360. However, only a break below 1.1320 would signal another stab at 1.1298 and a probable slide to the area between 1.1221 and 1.1210. Distant support remains at 1.1040.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.


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