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Thursday October 16, 2008 - 10:24:17 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: Global growth concerns weigh on equities and commodities

Today 06:15am
European market Update: Global growth concerns weigh on equities and commodities


- (CH) Reportedly China YTD Industrial output +15.2% y/y - Industry association

- (JP) Sept Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -20.1% v -20.7% prior

- (SZ) Swiss Aug Retail Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.8%e

- (SW) Swedish Sept Unemployment Rate: 5.9% v 5.6%e

- (IT) Aug Trade Balance Total: -€2.11B v -1.3Be; Trade Balance EU: -€25M v 600Me

- (SZ) Swiss Oct ZEW Expectations: -91.1 v -58.5e


In equities: The SNB announced plans to strengthen its country's financial system. -The Swiss Govt, SNB, and Banking Commission are adopting measures to stabilize financial system in which the Federal council has instructed the Federal Department of Finance to submit a dispatch for Parliament's Winter Session designed to immediately strengthen depositor protection. It is willing to back interbank loans and money market deals and increase bank deposit insurance limits. Swiss banks would face tighter capital requirements and new leverage ratios || UBS [UBSN.SZ] Swiss Gov't to buy CHF6B in convertible notes; assist in orderly liquidation of up to $60B in assets and that they are continuing to materially de-risk their balance sheet, taking action to eliminate legacy risks. To sell equity interests to SNB for $1. UBS has the option of repurchasing equity for $1B (half of equity) after paying loan || Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] CSGN.SZ: Guided Q3 pretax loss of CHF3.2B and a Net loss CHF1.3B. To raise its Tier 1 capital from group of investors, including SWF of CHF10B. The company stated thatit now has low exposure to toxic assets. It wrote down CHF2.4B in credit and market related losses. It added that it did not not need to use the illiquid fund set up by the Swiss Gov't. It end ended the share buyback. It stated that its agreements with the Swiss government did not constrain dividend payments. Lastly the co. added that its capitalization remained strong and was disappointed by the Q3 results || Thonson [TMS.FR] Reported Q3 sales €1.17B v €1.22Be. It planned to eliminate unprofitable revenues and business lines and added that it would satisfy debt covenants at the end of 2008. Lastly, it is on track to reach operating expenses reduction target of €50M || Remy Cointreau RCO.FR: Reports H1 Rev €365.1M v €361Me. Reiterates there is no organic operating profit growth for FY08-09 and noted that China, Southeast Asia, Russia were main drivers of growth || SKF [SKFB.SW] Reported Q3 Net Profit SEK1.22B v SEK1.15Be, Oper Profit SEK2.09B v SEK1.80B y/y, Rev SEK15.38B v SEK15.22Be . Its Q3 Operating Margin 13.6% v 12.6%e. The company saw demand higher in Latin America, Asia while weaker demand in North America and Europe. The company added that Q4 raw material prices would remain higher compared to year ago levels. Ashmore [ASHM.UK] Reported Q1 AUM $32B compared to v 37.5B year-ago levels. It noted that the most significant net redemptions in value terms were Dollar Debt, $1.9B, as a result of investors reallocating to other US denominated asset classes, including cash. Equities suffered outflows in line with the industry generally. Recent global market conditions have been extremely challenging, particularly in September and early October, which has clearly impacted the Group's assets under management. However, the Group has maintained its management fee margins and strong balance sheet. || Britvic [BVIC.UK] Reports FY Revenues of £926.5M, which was up 29% y/y. The company expected expect to deliver earnings for the year in line with expectations. || TNT [TNT.NV] Provided a trading statement in which it noted that conditions in TNTs European express business have significantly worsened in September. The company added that it had a strong financial position despite recent market turbulence and expected pressure to continue in the Q4. || Smiths News [NWS.UK] Reported its FY Net £26.5M compared to £28.7M years ago. Revenues came in at £1.24B versus £1.23B last year. The CEO noted that the general economic climate in the UK had impacted our business resulting in a 2% decline in total revenues for the three months ended 30 September 2008. It expected conditions to remain challenging and as a result revenues for the current year are likely to be modestly short of those achieved in 2008. || Vodafone [VOD.UK] stated that its Qatar unit would delay its IPO citing regulator's request || Reportedly Swiss Gov't is to propose partial sale of co. in which the Swiss Fin Min noted it did not dispute press speculation that it will reduce stake in SwissCom. The Fin Min added that that government's reduction had been 'always intended' but commented that the time period for making decision remained open || Epigenomics [ECX.GE] Reported completion of prostate cancer study which had met all endpoints. The clinical study successfully analyzed paraffin embedded tissue samples from 476 prostate cancer patients collected at four major clinical centers in Europe and the USA

- Speakers: ECB's Quaden stated that the current financial crisis was largest since 1930s and that it posed challenges for monetary policy. He noted that the first challenge was to continue to provide liquidity to the market as such illiquidity could lead to corporate bankruptcy. He applaud the ECB acceptance of a broad range of collateral and that the central bank remained ready to provide longer-term refinancing. On the economic front Quaden noted that upward risks to price stability has eased and that the recent rate cut demonstrated this downward risk. Lastly he added that the ECB stands ready to act when it becomes necessary || (HK) HKMA's Yam stated that he saw a low probability that a HK bank would fail || Bank of Korea state that financial market volatility remained at high levels and that it would carefully monitor currency swap markets. || SNB Pres Roth stated that UBS had confidence issues but the entity maintained a strong capital. The SNB added that the capital injection was necessary. The SNB noted that there was no currency risks or impact upon the central bank's SNB monetary policy from UBS plan || Swiss Fin Regulator stated that Swiss banks' liquidity buffers required increase. || IMF supports Hungary's actions to stabilize troubled markets || Germany's DIHK think tank lowered GDP growth estimates for 2008 and 2009. it cut the 2008 GDP view to 1.9% from 2.3% prior and lowered 2009 GDP view to 0.5% from 1.2% prior || Japanese Upper House of Diet passed ¥1.8T in extra budget measures ||S&P Director Ogawa comment ed that South Korean Govt's recent actions are relatively slow and inadequate || EU Summit draft urged that it develop a coordinated financial supervision at EU level which would be established by the ECB, Eurogroup and Presidency leaders. The draft sought that the EU be determined to support EuroZone industry and to have proposals by the end of the year. It sought to work on reform of financial system with international partners and wanted early decision on crisis management, transparency and cross-border supervision || Japan MoF official Sugimoto stated that he hoped to avoid issuing deficit-covering bonds as FY08 tax revenues are likely to fall sharply

- In Energy: Sanford Bernstein analyst lowers its 2010 oil price forecast to $80 from $95 || India Oil Minister stated that they had no plans to cut fuel prices at this time and added any reduction in prices would not be considered unless the price of crude oil imported by Indian refiners fell to $61 per barrel. YMEX front month crude futures retraces over 50% from all-time highs made in July; last at $72.20 || Reportedly Russia may open new anti-trust cases against several oil companies adding that domestic oil companies should lower oil product prices

-In Fixed Income: There was supply on the market today. UK sold £3.75B in 4.5% 2013 linkers at a 4.42% avg yield and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.1 times

||France sold a varity of notes. It sold €730M 5.5% 2010 Note, 3.10% avg yield, bid-to-cover 4.22X; sold €2.21B, 3.75% 2010 Note, 3.23% avg yield, bid-to-cover 3.11X v 3.3x prior and sold €2.49B, 4.50% 2003 Note, 3.94% avg yield, bid-to-cover 2.61X v 1.61x prior || Sweden sold SEK 424M in3.5% 2028 linkers with an average yield of 1.94% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 0.84 times || Dealers noting that spread on German 2-year and 10-year at 108bps, widest in 3 years || Itraxx Crossover Index at 760bps, up 26bps || Early indication on 3 month USD Libor was at 4.52% v 4.55% fixing on Wed

*** NOTES ***

The European session began on a note that was characterized by the downward spiral exhibited in late US and Asian trading. Economic growth concerns were cited for this recent round of equity weakness that originated with the release of the US Beige book renamed on Wednesday. The initial price movements saw bourse lose over 5% in the UK, France and Germany. The early indications that the 3-month USD Libor fixing would be a touch lower than yesterday's fixing of 4.555 was seen as a pivot point n the session. The S&P Dec future moved into positive territory while European stocks retraced from initial weakness. Chatter also circulated of perhaps another round of coordinated central bank interest rate cuts. The Swiss Government and Central bank enacted measure to stability its financial sector ahead of the European open and notable assisting UBS. The Far east currency market encountered some 'wild moves' as chatter circulated that Asian central banks could re-weight their currency baskets. This helped that AUD and NZD recover from lows. EU draft suggested the creation of a crisis management team. Looking ahead the US morning will be 'action packed' with

- Another packed day with CPI, industrial production and Oct Philadelphia Fed data. On the earnings front Citigroup[C], Merrill Lynch [MER] and Bank of NY [BK] will highlight the financials.

- 8:30 (CA) Aug Manufacturing Shipments M/M: % v 0.9%e

- 8:30 (US) Sept Consumer Price Index M/M: % v 0.1%e; Y/Y: % v 5.0%e; CPI NSA: v 219.200e

- 8:30 (US) Sept CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: % v 0.2%e; Y/Y: % v 2.5%e

- 8:30 (US) Initial Claims: K v 470Ke; Continuing Claims: M v 3.670Me

- 9:00 (US) Net Long Term TIC Flows: v $30.0Be; Total net TIC Flows: $ v -$74.8B prior

- 9:15 (US) Sept Industrial Production: % v -0.8%e; Capacity Utilization: % v 77.9%e

- 10:00 (US) Oct Philadelphia Fed: v -10.0e

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