Equity markets are still desperately searching for something positive
to hold onto as the painful process of pricing in recession goes on.
Following a brief rally after the opening bell, indices quickly turned
south again, jolting the VIX to fresh record highs above 80. The
morning's economic data is weighing heavily on markets, deepening fears
about the inevitability of a deep and painful recession. The Fed's
September industrial production reading came in much lower than
expected, making for the largest decline since 1974. The October Philly
Fed index was three times lower than the projected figure, with the new
orders and employment components a dramatic illustration of trouble
ahead. The slowdown is really taking its toll on energy markets.
Following weekly inventory data Nov crude dropped below $70 to a
13-month low, prompting OPEC to move up its extraordinary meeting to
Oct 24 from Nov 17. Reformulated gasoline is down more than twice as
much. Similar themes continue to play out in the industrial metals with
Dec copper down another 6%, re-approaching $2, while Jan platinum has
moved below $900, off close to 12%. Citigroup reported its fourth
consecutive quarterly loss, with earnings results coming in more or
less in line with expectations and revenue nearly $3B lower than
analysts expected. The bank noted that declining revenues were mainly
driven by write-downs in securities and banking operations, the North
America cards unit and a $612B ARS write-down. In a sign of things to
come, Citi's CFO said that credit card losses could "move beyond
historical peaks." Weakness in WFC-7% can be partly attributed to a
skeptical article in the Wall Street Journal today, which took a
critical look at the bank's loan-loss reserves. The article questioned
why WFC is not doing more to strengthen its cushion against loan
losses. The rest of the major financials are underwater this morning
thanks to falling markets. UBS and CS have lost any gains made in US
markets thanks to the lifeline from the Swiss National Bank. Several
second-tier financial services firms got smacked by the financial
crisis in earnings reports today. CIT-14% surprised investors with a
massive unexpected loss, driven by a $455M pre-tax write-down at its
vendor finance unit. The CEO noted that the outlook has darkened for
the near future. PNC-4% missed on estimates in a less dramatic fashion,
thanks to a big jump in non-performing assets, rising charge-offs and
falling returns on equity. Note that fallen giant MER reported what are
likely its last quarterly results today, with the CEO noting that the
organization continues to reduce exposures and deleverage prior to
closing the BAC deal. Several consumer-oriented names provided insight
into the slowdown in quarterly reports. WGO-25% disclosed a loss that
was twice the expected amount due to a sharp decline in motor home
deliveries, noting that dealers are cutting inventories and orders.
Earnings at HSY+4% were below estimates on falling margins and
commodity costs. In other news, CEGE-75% is in hot water after
canceling its second GVAX Phase III trial in as many months. In view of
the termination of the trials, the firm is shutting down further
development of GVAX program, laying off 75% of its workforce and
exploring strategic alternatives.
- Fixed-income and currency
markets are mimicking the heightened volatility and wide trading ranges
seen in equities this morning. In any case, calm seems to be slowly
returning to the Libor fixings as the three-month USD Libor came in
five bps below Wednesday's fixing at 4.50%. As the economic data
slammed equity investors, risk aversion made further gains magnifying
the effects of yesterday's weak Beige Book. Overall markets are
expressing disappointment that the G7 central banks failed to initiate
another round of coordinated rate cuts in the New York morning. The
overall theme in FX is mixed as the CHF firms in the wake of Swiss
National Bank "rescue" of UBS, while JPY trading has been choppy in a
wide range as risk aversion and risk appetite take turns in the drivers
seat among related pairs. The EUR/USD has maintained a 200-pip range
from the Asian open and is currently in the middle of this range at
- In fixed income, the European yield curve steepened
through the session and the spread between the German two-year and
ten-year continued to widen to 117bps from 109 earlier in the session
for multi-year highs. US yields have moved lower as money once again
makes its way out of stocks and into the relative safety of government
debt. The 2-year yields has moved back towards 1.5% and the Nov fed
fund future is now pricing in better than a 50% chance we see the Fed
cut rates by 50 basis points. Dec Bunds +20 ticks at 114.17 and Dec
Gilts -20 ticks at 109.74.
Euro Stoxx 50 index -4.3% at 2,465; FTSE 100 Index -4.3% at 3,905; CAC 40 Index -5.3% at 3,201 and DAX Index -3.4% at 4,696.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
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