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Friday October 17, 2008 - 10:15:35 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: ITraxx Crossover hits fresh all-time highs above 760bps; Risk aversion keeping equities subdued

Today 05:52am
European Market Update: ITraxx Crossover hits fresh all-time highs above 760bps; Risk aversion keeping equities subdued

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (JN) Japan Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: -4.7% v -3.1% prior; Tokyo Dept Store Sales Y/Y: -4.6% v -4.1% prior

- (IT) Italian Aug Industrial Orders M/M: -0.3% v -1.7%e; Y/Y: -5.2% v-2.3%e

- (IT) Italian Aug Industrial Sales M/M: -3.0% v1.7%e; Y/Y -11.0% v 4.7% prior

- (NO ) Norway Q3 Existing Homes: -4.5% v 1.1% prior

- (EU ) Aug Euro-Zone Trade Balance: -€9.3B v -€5.5Be; Trade Balance SA: -€6.1B v -€5.4Be

- (EU) Aug Construction Output M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.5% v -3.3% prior

Speakers:



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: Sony Ericsson reported its Q3 results with the net loss of €25M which was better than estimates of a loss of €141M. The revenue came in at €2.81B compared to year ago level of €3.11B. Its market share remained flat at 8%. Its gross margin came in at 22% v 31% y/y and its operating Margin was-1% v 13% y/y. The venture shipped 25.7M units in Q3 v 25.9M units last year. Its average selling price (ASP) was €109 compared to €120 y/y. It added that it saw 2008 Global Handset ASP declining and it it experienced a "challenging" Q3 || ING Weakness in shares being attributed to chatter of a possible government injection of funds needed || Safran [SAF.FR] Reported 9 month Revenues of €7.44B, up 14% from year ago levels. The company maintained its 2008 targets of €10B in revenues (ex mobile phones) and €750 in net profit 9ex mobile phones). || Alcoa [AA] Spokesperson: Australian CAPEX is under review due to the recent market turbulence || Tecnip [TEC.FR] Awarded order to assist in development of E-18, P-9 gas fields by Wintershall Noordzee. Offshore operations are scheduled to commence in the first quarter of 2009. || Ipsen [IPN.FR] Completed acquisition of Tercica in North America [TRCA] || Edison [EDN.IT] Guided The company confirmed its FY08 financial targets and investment with EBITDA seen around €1.55B. The CEO: stated that it might purchase assets of rivals impacted in current credit crisis. The company stated that it has cash to pay for investments and further exploration || Bunzl [BNZL.UK] Provided an interim report that its Q3 Rev was up +15% y/y and saw its trading in line with prior expectations. The growth in group revenue due to a combination of organic growth, the positive impact of acquisitions and the weakening of sterling, principally against the euro and US dollar. || Inchcape [INCH.UK: Reported 9-months Like-for-Like sales -1% y/y, and its Group sales up 6.7% (incl FX). The company noted that following deterioration in trading conditions and assuming this may continue for the foreseeable future, it implemented prompt actions to reduce cost. || Yara [YAR.NO] Reported Q3 Net profit NOK3.36B compared to estimates of NOK3.88B and Revenues of NOK25.06B just below estimates of NOK27.46B. The company noted that recent financial turmoil has created interesting investment opportunities. It saw Q4 energy costs NOK1.1B higher y/y || Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK] Noted that discussions over possible combination with third party have ended || Solvay [SOLB.BE] Acquired Egypt's Alexandria Sodium Carbonate Co. for €100M || Unicredit [UCG.IT] Surges following confirmed investment from Libyan State Bank in its attempts to raise €6.6B in new capital. Had its opening delayed after futures pointed to an open higher than 10%. || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Shares rebound following yesterdays slide on news that Alcoa and Chinalco's stake in the firm, purchased through Lehman is secure. || Savills [SVS.UK] stated that it now saw its FY pretax ex items under its consensus forecasts in light of weaker economic conditions

- Speakers: ECB's Gonzalez Paramo stated that the euro-zone inflation to fall below target in H2 of 2009 and that the ECB must look beyond short term inflation rate. However added that inflation is highly dependent on commodity prices. Paramo stated that continue to see constant coordination among global central banks but that coordinated interest rate cuts are generally not justified. Spanish reaction to financial crisis has been better than in other Eurozone countries. || BoJ Governor Shirakawa noted that the Japanese financial system remained stable despite extreme global volatility. The BOJ continued to observe any impact of possible deterioration in the global economy upon Japan. He added that Japanese economic growth would remain subdued and that Japan's economy was facing downside risks, which would unlikely; see any moderate growth for some time. Need to watch for second round effects following rise in commodity prices. Lastly he noted that domestic demand could weaken further. || Japan's Fin Min Nagakawa also noted that tensions within global financial markets were increasing but that Japanese financial system were in good shape compared with that of Europe and the United States. He also stressed that govts need to stay alert for further developments. || German Econ Min Gloss reiterates it is still difficult to say how current financial crisis will impact industries

- Notes several companies are amazingly resilient to financial crisis

- Says there is no need for panic but we must use precaution

- In Currencies: USD was mostly firmer against the majors with exception to the JPY. The continued theme of risk aversion is likely to keep the recent patten of the EUR/USD and USD/JPY trading in tandem with equity prices. Dealers noting that as long as the correlations work, currency markets will go with the flow. || Credit Suisse analyst notes that Turksih banks face strong challenge in FX liquidity || Indonesian Central Bank Governor confirms intervention in currency markets || Goldman Sachs Analyst lowered their outlook on Eastern European emerging market economies as it lowered various GDP estimates for Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia. The analyst also revised each related currency towards a weaker outlook based upon its revised growth forecast || Thai Central Bank revised its GDP growth forecast. It now sees 2008 in a range of 4.3%-5.0% compared to a prior view of 4.8%-5.8%. Its 2009 GDP growth forecast cut to 3.8%-5.0% compared to 4.3%-5.8% prior July view.

- In energy: Mitsubishi [5001.JP] Reportedly would hold discussions with Turkey over joint Iraqi oil exploration State-run Turkish Petroleum Corp. is urging major Japanese companies, including Nippon Oil Corp. and Mitsubishi Corp., to jointly develop the mostly untapped vast oil deposits in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq || China' Gov't forecasted that Sept imports of diesel totaled 340K metric tons vs 880K m/m; Gasoline imports 122.9K tons v 382.2K || Chevron [CVX] has reportedly been awarded oil and gas exploration rights by the Indonesian gov't for the West Papua blocks; Conoco has been awarded rights for the Arafura Sea block

-In Credit Crisis: ASEAN leaders to meet in Beijing on in late Oct to discuss financial market crisis. The -summit would look at strengthening fund to stabilize member currencies. It noted that the gathering was a panic reaction but a precautionary measure. The meeting likely to take place on Oct 23rd or Oct 24th || Japan's Nakagawa stated that he would not rule out G8 meeting on global crisis, but it must have tangible results. He seeks an emergency adjustment in market to market accounting rules to avoid systemic risks emerging in financial systems

- In the Papers: UK Telegraph noted that banks in bail-out scheme are not allowed to pay dividends for five years under EU laww, which could threaten the Government's scheme. || General Motors and Chrysler are accelerating merger discussions amid strong support from potential lenders that are eager to see a deal done. GM, set to report dismal Q3 earnings and scrambling to find new sources of funding, is aiming to get a deal done as early as the end of Oct. Two major players driving the deal are JP Morgan Chase and Cerberus Capital Mgmt. || Japan is considering a temporary freeze on corporate accounting rules that require financial instruments to be assessed at market value, following the lead of the U.S. and Europe in addressing the global financial crisis







*** NOTES ***

The recent talks from various government officials and central bankers in recent days have been more cautious on the growth front and growing optimism on inflation. The comment from ECB's Gonzalez Paramo: that inflation to fall below target in H2 of 2009 is a very dovish statement. This appears to be the first talk among an ECB members that inflation to fall below its 2.0% target. Previous the ECB saw a 'gradual decline' towards its target. With front month NYMEX crude about 50% off peak levels seen back in July OPEC has decided to move up its emergency meeting regarding possible production cuts to Oct 24th from Nov 18th. A sense of urgency is rising as global growth slow and this is complemented with an increase in inventories. The USD funding continues to improve as the 3-month USD Libor seen expected to improve toward the 4.45% area from Thursday's fixing of 4.50%. The TED spread is at 407bps ahead of the US morning. However, the Itraxx Crossover Index hit a record level of over 760 bps just ahead of the Libor fixing rates. Chatter circulating that ING may need gov't assistance as its shares hit fresh 52-week lows. The slight 'improvement' in the spread market had one dealer make the observation that perhaps credit should be granted to where “credit is due”. As the NY morning approaches traders and dealers will be looking for the first sign of a VIX selloff, or in anticipation thereof as option expiration comes into focus.



- 8:30 (US) Sept Housing Starts. Consensus expectations are 872k; The prior number was 895k.

- 8:30 (US) Sept Building Permits. Consensus expectations are 840k; The prior number was 857k.

- 12:45 (US) St Louis Fed's Bullard to moderate panel on Economic Policy

- 14:00 (US) Fed's Evan's Speaks in Wisconsin

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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