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FX Blog- Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook for October 18, 2008

US Currency Outlook -- Forex Currency Pairs


Forex Currency Pairs




October 18, 2008

Forex Forecast of Major Currency Pairs


See the GVI calendar for the full schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.



    The Global-View.com Month Ahead Currency Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

    Forex markets primarily have been biding their time as they wait for some sort of clarity on the bailout programs for the international financial system. The barometer of the health of the system remains the performance of major equity indices. Weakness in shares is usually taken as an indication of worry in national economies.

    The key issue remains the free flow of liquidity which stopped after the blunder of letting Lehman Brothers fail. To get the credit markets working again, financial institutions ned to start to trust one another or have for a third party to assume the counterparty risk on interbank financial flows. Presumably this issue has been addressed, but the markets are still waiting for the various bailout programs to be actually implemented.

    A clear trading pattern has developed. On equity weakness, the markets run into the JPY, presumably to pay off JPY financing that was supporting the stock position. The next step is to liquidate EUR longs against the JPY. This cross trade then drives the EUR/USD pair lower. So the major currency relationships are being driven by stocks.

    The commodity currencies remain extremely volatile and have been trading inversely with the USD. These have been very unstable markets for most currency pairs and are likely to remain that way until this financial crisis has been resolved.




    Click on chart for two year history




    Click on chart for two year history




    Click on chart for two year history




    Click on chart for two year history



    John M. Bland is a co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelor�s degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

     

    Forex Trading News

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    Daily Forex Market News
    Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

    Forex News
    Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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    Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

    Wed 18 Oct
    12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
    14:30 US- EIA Crude
    Thu 19 Oct
    01:30 AU- Employment
    08:30 GB- Retail Sales
    12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
    Fri 20 Oct
    12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
    14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

    Forex Trading Outlook


    Trading Opportunities


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


    • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



    John M. Bland, MBA
    co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

    EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

    EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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