User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Sunday October 19, 2008 - 19:42:28 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - Morning Report

Morning Report  Monday 20 October 2008

 


News and views

The late sell-off in US equities helped DXY  produce a modest gain (about 0.5%) in London/NY Friday in uncertain, illiquid trade. Woeful US economic data (housing starts, consumer sentiment) had surprisingly little impact but of course adds to underlying concern over the economy’s prospects even once money markets thaw. Hedge fund failures were in the news again with the Telegraph (UK) reporting that London’s Gradient Capital Partners (European equities) is -63% YTD, “on the brink of collapse.” The DJIA traded a 560 point range, closing on the lower side of it, -127pts, -1.4% but the S&P 500 fell only 0.6%. NZD/USD dipped as low as 0.6077 in London and rose as high as 0.6202 in NY, finishing at 0.6120, again taking its cue from risk sentiment as proxied by the Dow.

 

AUD/USD’s 0.6734 – 0.7008 range (closing 0.6890) was modest by recent standards. The McCrann article playing down prospects of an RBA Nov cut stirred plenty of interest in AUD money markets. “Precious” metals fell as the US dollar rose but most base metals posted good gains on the LME.

 

EUR/USD lacked direction, chopping around in the 1.3400s with only a few brief forays below the figure. European equities posted strong gains e.g. Euro Stoxx 50 +4.5% despite tension ahead of ING’s profit results (its shares fell 27%).

 

USD/JPY bumped around the low 100.60s in London but rallied to 101.70 at the NY close, less blatantly fixated with equities than usual.

 

US housing starts down 6.3% in Sep. Housing starts and permits continued to slump in September, despite the unwind of the distortion caused by the July 1 building code change in New York now being mostly complete. That distortion saw multiple starts and permits pulled forward from Q3 into June and subsequently fall away sharply in July and August. But in September, multiple starts actually rose 7.5% (including a 70% rebound in the north-east). However single family starts, unaffected by the distortion, fell 12.0%, their steepest monthly decline since they plunged 13.9% in January 2007. Single family permits fell by just less than 4% but at 532k annualised remain below single family starts on 544k annualised so there is no indication there that starts are about to rebound. The bottom line is that the new housing market is continuing to sink.

 

US consumer sentiment reversed almost all of the gains of the prior three months in October, by plunging about 13 pts – its steepest one month fall for decades. It is clear that the message from policy-makers is getting through – the US economy is sliding into recession, corporate failures will follow bank failures and unemployment will rise sharply.

 

Japanese tertiary activity contracted in August. The year-ended pace has collapsed from +0.7% to -2.3%. Focusing on year-ended outcomes by sector, we note that transport has been hammered by the rise in fuel prices (-3.2%), wholesale and retail are struggling to attract consumers in an environment of declining real incomes (-1.4%), while externally related sections of the financial system are showing major slowdowns (securities brokerage -45.3%, FX clearing -24.9%). Real estate has kept its head above water, but even here they are major pockets of weakness (condominiums -18.9%). Topping things off, business services are down 1.3%.

 

Euroland trade deficit €6.1bn in Aug. The record trade deficit in July was followed by another sizeable deficit in August. The deficit should narrow further as lower oil prices cut into import values, but full year 2008 is likely to record a modest overall deficit.

 

Outlook

The 100bp cash rate cut we expect from the RBNZ on Thursday should help limit the scope of any NZD/USD rallies. At the margin, the lack of long NZD longs to be unwound still helps the currency versus AUD during risk aversion surges and vice versa.

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• RBNZ OCR Preview (17 October)

• NZ Q3 CPI Preview (14 October)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (14 October)

• Big bang vs creationism (13 October)

• NZ Q3 QSBO Review (7 October)

• NZ PREFU Review (6 October)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (6 October)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

Events Today

Country Release Last Forecast

NZ Sep Electronic Card Transactions 0.8% –

Aus Q3 PPI 1.0% 2.2%

Sep Merchandise Imports, AUDbn 18.5 –

US Sep Leading Index –0.5% –0.4%

Fedspeak: Lockhart

Ger Sep PPI %yr 8.1% 7.4%

UK Oct House Prices %yr –3.3% –8.0%

Sep PSNCR £bn 5.1 10.0

Sep Money Supply M4 %yr 11.5% 11.0%

Can Aug Wholesale Sales 2.3% 0.3%

 

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105