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Monday October 20, 2008 - 10:17:19 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Equites rally on increase bank lending hopes; Global growth concerns linger

Today 05:56am
European Market Update: Equites rally on increase bank lending hopes; Global growth concerns linger

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (JP) Aug Final Leading Indicator: 89.0 v 89.3 prior; Coincident: 100.6 v 100.7 prior

- (GE) German Sept Producer Prices M/M: 0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 8.5% v 7.5%e

- (JP) Japan Sept Convenience Store Sales: 6.6% v 5.3% prior

- (UK) Sept Public Finances: £12.6 v £10Be (highest on record); Net Borrowing: £8.1B v £6.8Be

- (UK) Sept Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M: 1.4% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 12.2% v 11%

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: ING [ING] CFO confirmed it would not pay a final dividend and noted that core earnings remained inline. The Cfo added that it has seen a significant increase in new customers ||Ericsson Reported Q3 Net SEK2.8B compared to estimates of SEK2.34b; Op Profit SEK5.7B versus SEK5.6B year ago. The company was seeing positive effect from ongoing cost adjustments. It noted that major economic trends were negative and was hard to predict consumer telecom spending. It saw flattish mobile infrastructure in 2009 || Novartis [NOVN.SZ] Reported Q3 Net $2.09Be v $2.13Be, Rev $10.75B compared to estimates of $10.19B. It maintained its fiscal year revenue and earnings outlook. || Kuehn & Nagel KNIN.SZ: Reported 9 Month Net CHF455M v CHF 414M y/y, Rev CHF16.3B v CHF15.4B y/y || Accor [AC.FR]Announced €75M cost cutting program and would continue selling its real estate assets . it planned €50M of cost cuts next year and intended to cut hotel renovation investments by €100M annually. Lastly, it stated that it would maintain services development investments || Metso [MEO1V.FH] Aracruz has announced that they will temporarily suspend the €400M expansion of its plant in Brazil. Metso was currently negotiating with Aracruz about the new implementation schedule of the project and would continuing work, within the cost frame covered by the down payment received from Aracruz, in order to allow an easy restart of the project. || JJB Sports JJB.UK: Sold 5% stake to Sports Direct [SPD.UK}. The company will place 11,9M new shares at 28.5p/shra and use £3.4M in proceeds for general working capital purposes and to strengthen JJB's financial position. Approximately || OMV [OMV.AS] Reported Q3 oil and gas Production 317K bpd, Sales 5.81M tons . its Q3 refining margin $6.24 pre barrel || Playtech [PTEC.UK] William Hill PLC acquired affiliates and other assets for £144.5M and enters into online gaming license agreement. Playtech would receive a 29%. interest in William Hill's enlarged online operation. Playtech's interest in William Hill Online can increase to 32% depending on certain conditions relating to the integration || Senior [SNR.UK] Stated that trading in Q1 has been good with the Group's adjusted profit before tax, and free cash flow, slightly ahead of the Board's expectations. || Mondi [MNDI.UK] Reported 9-month Op Profit up 2% y/y but added it saw FY profit down in a range of 15 to 10% from year-ago levels citing global market downturn. The company stated that it is exposed to a broad range of end markets and geographies; the recent worsening of the global economic outlook is now having an adverse impact on our business. In particular, during October we have seen a downturn in trading within the Europe & International Division || Kaufman & Broad [KOF.FR] Reported 9 month net €24.0M compared to €57.1M y/y and announced plans for a capital increase. It saw a sharp decline in orders impacted by cancellation of projects. It guided its FY approximately 10% decline in net revenues versus 5% prior view; Gross margin now seen at the low end of 18% and 20% range.

- Speakers: India's Central bank cut its repo rate by 100bps to 8.0%. this was the first reduction in the repo rate in 5 years. || Japanese Government lowered its overall economic assessment in Oct. The report cut its view in six categories of Exports, Production, Labor, Consumption, bankruptcies and business sentiment, the most since 1998 in any one report. || BOJ lowered it regional view in its Oct report noting that its economy has worsened since July. - The report noted that Japan's core economic assessment of the nation's regional economies was cut for the first time since April and that all 9 regions registered a lower assessment. The pace of Japan's export growth has slowed while corporate sentiment was more cautious. Its housing investment remains flat || ECB Stark stated in a radio interview that inflation was to drop faster than previously forecasted and that GDP growth to be weaker in 2009. He added that market volatility would persist for some time and this would impact global growth. However, the ECB member noted that inflation remained elevated

|| South Korea Fin Min noted that its emergency plan is sufficient to deal wth USD liquidity situation and that both South Korea and China must cooperate on regional matters|| India Junior Fin Min noted that growth policy was tough to implement during financial market but added that India would be capable of 'weathering the storm' || (RU) Reportedly Russia Dep PM could cancel fertilizer export duties according to the Russian Press. It noted that producers have signed an agreement on domestic supplies through 2012 in which producers will negotiate prices two times a year || (SI) Singapore Trade Min Lim stated that weak economic growth for next several quarters which would lead to moderation of employment growth in H2 of 2009. Seeing 2008 rate higher than the 2.1% registered back in 2007. Expected credit to become scarcer and that Singapore banks are now more cautious. Its Construction industry was moderating; private construction projects are slowing || (SW) Fin Min Borg: Sweden announced SEK15B stability fund and added that they would charge 'stability fee' from credit institutions. The Fin Min noted it could purchase stakes in financial firms by force if necessary. || German Cabinet formally agreed on a bank €500B rescue package conditions in which it approved a set of strict conditions for banks use The conditions include a cap on annual pay of €500K for executives at banks using the package, a ban on dividend payments while institutions are using the plan, a recapitalization limit of €10B per bank, and an assumption of risk of up to €5B per bank. || Vietnam's Central Bank cuts its key interest rate by 100 bps to 13% || South Korea reduced the size of its 20-year govt bond auction to KRW204B from its originally scheduled size of KRW354B prior. The auction will be held on Oct 27th. || (GE) German Gov't spokesman noted that its : Govt has to be ready to consider measures to stimulate economy and should target sectors specific such as construction and autos


- In Currencies: The Carry-related pairs regained an appetite for risk helped by firmer Asian and European equities. The early indication that the LIBOR rates would continue their slow decent suggested that the recent USD buying spree could ease as well. The German PPI data came in above expectations which could refocus the ECB's sights on the inflation front. However, for the time being ECB members holding a mildly optimistic view on its ability to get inflation back towards the 2.0% be the end of 2009.

-In Fixed Income: No new supply in today's session. The SNB and ECB announced a FX swap || South Korea reduced size of its 20-year govt bond auction on Oct 27th to KRW204B v KRW354B prior noting that the reduction was aimed to stabilize market. It added it would buy back KRW900M in treasury bonds || ECB noted that €14.0B was used in its marginal lending facility on Sunday. Concerns remaining various emerging market currencies after recent volatility. The OECD commented that Turkey was facing serious economic downturn in 2009

- In energy: Iraq OPEC chief states that data would determine the output decision at its emergency meeting later this week. The official noted that he was not comfortable with current oil prices as low oil prices are hampering rebuilding efforts || Iran OPEC Governor noted that global demand for crude oil has fallen by 2M BPD. The official saw OPEC cutting supplies in increments of 1M BPD following its emergency meeting. He also saw more frequent OPEC emergency meetings to study oil market || Deutsche Bank analyst lowers 2009 Brent crude forecast by 35% to $60 || Gazprom [GAZP.RU] CEO: notd that it received an invitation to explore for resources off the coast of Alaska during talks with ConocoPhillips and state officials last week. || PetroChina [PTR] reportedly signed an oil exploration pact with Uzbekistan's state-owned oil company Uzbekneftegaz || CNBC reported that Venezuela's PDVSA had its entire $5B bank line of credit pulled || OPEC General Secretary likely to meet with Russian leaders this week - Russian Energy Min || IEA's Tanaka stated tthat any OPEC output cut could create negative impact upon the prospects for any global economic recovery. He noted that current oil price remain high in historical terms and market remained tight. Non-OECD oil demand continues tight.

*** NOTES ***

Economic growth concerns continue to remain on the front burner as China's GDP came in below expectations and this compares to a backdrop of bad data everywhere. India's Central Bank unrepentantly cut its repo rate by 100bps to 8.0%. This was the first cut in the repo rates in over 4 years. Japanese Government lowered its overall economic assessment in Oct. The report cut its view in six categories of Exports, Production, Labor, Consumption, bankruptcies and business sentiment, the most since 1998 in any one report. However, Far East and European equities are starting the week on a positive as it appears that banks returning to term lending. Dealers see the 3-month USD Libor rate at 4.15% in early indications compared to Friday's fixing of 4.42%.

OPEC meets later this week to determine if and how much output needs to be reduced in light of the slowing global outlook. The Iranian official placed the excess capacity at 2M BPD. Dealer chatter noting that Tuesday's LEH CDS settlement is an unknown hurdle that the market has to evalute and get through. Merrill's Thain noted that its merger with BoA remained on track and hopes to close deal by end of 2008.

Looking ahead

8:30 (CA) Canadian Aug International Securities Transactions. Consensus expectations are C$1B; The prior number was -C$5.59B.

8:30 (CA) Canadian Aug Wholesale Sales. M/M consensus expectations are -1.0%; The prior number was 2.3%

10:00 (US) Sept Leading Indicators. Consensus expectations are -0.1%; The prior number was -0.5%.

-Speakers

8:00 (EU) ECB's Tumpel -Gugerell to speak in Prague

10:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke to testify at House Budget Committee on Economy

12:00 (EU) ECB's Bini Smaghi to present new book on the Euro


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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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