Tuesday May 18, 2004 - 01:54:58 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Dollar Yen View for 18th May 2004Price: 114.25
Resistance: 114.45 ... 114.65 ... 114.85 ... 115.10
Support....: 114.00 ... 113.80 ... 113.55 ... 113.30
A mild bias for a move to 115.25-50 but wait for break
Price declined as expected yesterday but held at 113.05 - just above our 112.80 target. The recovery from there has been firm and does look constructive and while price remains above 114.00 we feel a direct move to 115.25-45 is possible without confirming resumption of the uptrend. Thu sonly above 115.55 would allow price to continue its rally through to next resistance at 116.40 and 116.95.
The decline was much as expected and held above the high end of our 112.80-00 support. However, the recovery from there has been firm and while we feel we are in a larger corrective pattern we would prefer to wait for a break first below 114.00 and then the 113.79 low this morning to allow losses to extend to 113.45. However, only below here would imply stronger losses below 113.05 and down to the 112.45-65 support zone.
Elliott Wave Comment:
The test of 114.85 this morning has satisfied target for the rally from 104.96-105.02 and we feel there is a strong chance that this has completed Wave [iii]. The ideal target is 104.90-00 but given the strong pivot resistance at 115.00-50 we feel there is a chance of falling short of the ideal target. Overall then we feel this implies that Wave [iv] should now begin and this will imply a move back to 112.80 at least and we feel to 112.35 and probably 111.10-60 before Wave [v] can begin.
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