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Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 10:50:52 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: European stocks firmer on French Gov't investment in banks; USD maintains firmer tone

Today 06:10am
European market Update: European stocks firmer on French Gov't investment in banks; USD maintains firmer tone

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (CH) China Sept Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 7.0% v 8.2% prior

- (SZ) Swiss Sept Trade Balance. CHF 1.44B v CHF1.20Be; Exports M/M: -8.2% v 5.1% prior; Imports M/M: -3.2% v 2.5% prior

- (SZ) Swiss Q3 Real Estate Single Family Homes: 351.4 v 346.5 prior

- (SZ) Swiss Money Supply M3: Y/Y: 1.1% v 2.5% prior

- (SP) Spain Q3 Business Confidence -22.4 v -14 prior

- (UK) UK CBI October Quarterly Industrial Trends. -39 v -26 prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: Roche [ROG.SZ] Reported 9-month Revenues of CHF33.2B just below analyst estimates of CHF33.43B. Roche reaffirmed FY outlook and commitment to DNA offer. CEO noted that the company was not materially affected by financial market crisis || Aeroports de Paris [ADP.FR] French Fin Min Legarde: France will sell 8% stake in the airport. Separately the company announced an agreement with Schipol (Amsterdam's int'l airport) to pay €530M for 8% stake for an accord for 12 year period || Renewable Energy [REC.NO] Reported Q3 Revenues of NOK1.92B versus NOK2.08B estimates. The company lowered their Fiscal year revenue and solar output targets. It now sees FY revenue of NOK2.6B versus a prior view of NOK2.7-NOK 2.85B. It cut its FY solar target to 135MW v 145MW prior and lowered FY Solar Module Target 85MW v 90MW prior view || Norsk Hydro [NHY.NO] Reported Q3 Net Profit NOK202M below analyst estimates of NOK967M. It revenues cam in at NOK21.77B just below estimates of NOK23.33B. Primary aluminum production 439 KMT. The company CEO stated that the global financial market crisis impacted its Q3 results. || Xstrata [XTA.UK] Reported a Q3 production update t in which coal volume rose by19% y/y and Refined copper production increased by 17% y/y. lastly total mined nickel production was up17% y/y. The company noted that it financial position remains robust || Subsea 7 [SUB.NO] Reported Q3 Net $65.7M v $86.3Me; Pretax $99M v 122Me; Rev $629M v $690Me. Its backlog $4.1B v $3.7B q/q. the company saw strong demand through 2012 as underlying fundamental remain strong for the industry. || Prudential plc: [PRU.UK] Reported 9-month Revenues of £2.3B, which was up+15% y/y. the company saw market conditions as extremely challenging for some time and added that its planned goal of doubling FY05 profit in FY08 as difficult. || Debenhams [DEB.UK] Reported FY Pretax £110.1M versus £110.1M estimates and its , like-for-like sales 4.2% y/y. Its gross margins were up 0.5% y/y and that it saw gains in all major clothing categories. || Valeo [FR.FR] Reported Q3 Net Profit €6M v -€6M estimates and revenues of €2.11B compared to estimates of €2.17B. Its gross moargins were 15.2% versus 15.4% y/y. The company anticipated a further deterioration of automotive production in the Q4. Group confirmed, for 2008, an operating margin similar to that of 2007. || AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] Reported its s European SEROQUEL XR submission to be used for the for treatment of anxiety. The company noted that it saw greater improvements than placebo in short term and that

- Quetiapine showed fast onset of action and generally well tolerated || Verbund [VER.AS] Reports Q3 Sales of€988M versus €762M y/y and a net profit of €174M compared to €128M year-ago. Its 9 month revenue of €2.64B v €2.56Be y/y; Net Profit €602.5M v €457.9M y/y ; EBIT €885.3M v €685.1M y/y. the company stated that it would increase its dividend for 2008 || Hanover Re [HNR1.GE] Lowered its 2008 targets citing that catastrophe losses have been higher than expected. It noted that capital depletion will create further hardening of markets. Sees total writedowns ina arnge of - €360M of €466M total write-downs and unrealized losses was taken on equities. Hurricanes Gustav, Ike would cost co. approximately €250M. Co. has reduced equity exposure significantly in October but saw a positive outlook for reinsurance segment next year || Munich Re [MUV2.GE] Spokesperson reiterates the view that more writedowns were likely in Q3 but declined to comment on the company's profit outlook

- Speakers: ECB's Stark stated that he saw some signs of improvement in interbank market. TheECB would continue to provide liquidity as necessary since the money market continues not functioning adequately. On the inflation front, he reiterated the view the the ECB's status as a stability anchor was not in danger and that the ongoing liquidity operations were inflationary. Lastly that monetary policy must be stable and medium term focused ||ECB's Gonzalez Paramo sees significant slowdown in upcoming quarters; finds it unreasonable to think 2009 would be traumatic. Notd that the current level of Euribor was an 'anomaly'. He noted that Govts cannot support financial system for an extended amount of time. The ECB would take any action on interest rates necessary for medium term price stability. Hopes inflation will fall faster than expected. Lastly, the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy will mark a historic turning point and the demise of investment banks || Russia First Dep PM stated that Russia had no plans to devalue its currency || BoJ Dep Gov Nominee Yamaguchi noted that tensions in global markets remain extremely high and that perhaps past BoJ's easy policy might have affected markets . He noted that downside risks to Japan's economy ars rising. Central Bank to conduct monetary policy on domestic economic and outlook || Hungary Central Banker Simor: No need to intervene in Forint. He added that the Gov't CPI level was realistic and that Hungary could finance its deficit and debt obligation || Moody's affirmed South Korea A2 credit rating. The rating agency stated that the South Korean government's package of measures to help alleviate pressures affecting South Korean banks will likely be helpful to address uncertainties in the international financial system, especially as they are experienced locally. || India Fin Minister noted that the Rupee exchange rate determined by market forces of supply and demand. INR Exchange rates are monitored but India does not have a fixed-rate, preannounce target. It cited the recent Rupee weakness due to capital outflows || South Korea Gov announced steps to increase domestic construction companies in which it would acquire KRW2 Trillion of unsold apartments and KRW5 Trillion in new homes and land. State run credit guarantee agencies to back construction companies bond issues. To add liquidity to the system to lower 3-month yields || ECB's Provopoulos reiterated that the global economy continues to deteriorate while inflation remains high. -He Reiterated that ECB policy must ensure that secondary effects of inflation are contained. He expressed some optimism that inflationary expectations were moderating and that the current ECB interest rate was in line with central bank's goal of achieving price stability. Lastly he added that the recent global economic slowdown helps to restrain inflationary risks || French Pres Sarkozy noted that recent EU responses have calmed the markets. He added that no banks that received capital injections should be allowed to utilize tax havens. Europe is already in the middle of an economic crisis and thatthet EU should establish "Sovereign Fund" to coordinate response to crisis. Lastly, He intended to persuade China to join World Finance Summit || Chinese Finance Ministry announced measure to help its export sector with planned export tax rebates increases, effective Nov 1st

- In Currencies: The cross currents and overall irrational price movements seem to be the norm in currencies at this time. Dealers noting that the US-German sprad relationship on the government 2-year note is perhaps the best indicator. The EUR/USD tested the 1.3210 area for fresh October lows. One dealer noted that USD continued to respond positively to the Bernanke comment of a possibility for another US fiscal stimulus package. Thus markets seem to reward the currencies of countries who take aggressive actions inresolving their economic growth issues. JPY broadly firmer in a risk aversion manner, yet the higher recent equity price action in both US and Europe.

-In Fixed Income The UK DMO sold £4.75B 4.25% 2011 Gilts with an average yield of 3.85% and a bid-to-cover of 2.2 times versus prior 2.1 times. This was part of the UK £37B bank recapitalization plan

- In Energy: Gazprom [GAZP.RU] Reportedly Russia, Iran, Qatar enter pact to create Gas Troika. || Qatar Energy Min stated thet he personally believed that the consumer price for oil is in the range of $80-$90/barrel, and that above $100 was not ideal. || Iran Oil Min: Suggest that the output cuts could be as much as 2.5M BPD at the OPEC meeting (he also noted previously the=at perhaps global demand has fallen by 2m BPD) || China's Sinopec has cut its internal prices for diesel by CNY150/metric ton to CNY6,650/ton as of Monday

*** NOTES ***

- The European equity markets were firmer led by the French financial sector following yesterday's post close come in which the the French banks would sell €10.5B in various subordinated debt with the Government's backing. This complemented the confidence boost provided by the Fed Chair in which consideration of a new fiscal stimulus package was appropriate. However, there are some lingering concerns in the European financial sector after several German insurers issued concerns on their outlook. Hannover Re's [HRN1.GE] Guided its Q3 lower citing credit crisis and turmoil in capital markets and thus stated that it would not be able to achieve FY targets. The USD continued its firm tone as dealers noted that perhaps it was the narrowing of the US-German 2-year spread being the current catalyst and not the narrowing of the 3-month USD Libor fixings. 3M USD Libor expected to ease below the 3.9% area following's yesterday's fixing of 4.06%.

- Overall traders and dealers continue to note that the abnormally high amount of cross currents in the price action these days in equities, commodities, Fixed-income and currencies as the predominant mentality remains deleveraging and liquidations. There still is th Lehman Brothers CDS settlement later today and its possible implications.

Looking ahead: US Corporate earnings continue to move into focus. CAT, Dupont, Pfizer, Schering, MMM among the notables. Lastly, the Bank of Canada is expect to cut its interest rates by 50bps to 2.00% ahead of the US equity open.

-9:00 (BE) Belgian Oct Consumer Confidence. There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was -9.0%

-9:00 (CA) Canadian Interest Rate Decision. Consensus expectations are a 50bps point cut. The current Bank of Canada base rate is 2.50%

- 7:00 (IT) ECB's Draghi to speak to Italian Senate

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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