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Tuesday October 21, 2008 - 19:23:33 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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FX Research - Morning Report

Morning Report Wednesday 22 October 2008

 

News and views

Despite further easing in money markets (3mth USD LIBOR -22bp to 3.83%, lowest since 26 Sep), there was still plenty for US equity markets to worry about and expectations of USD repatriation to close trades, boosting USD  ndex in London/NY. The DJIA spent most of the day in negative territory but rallied off mid-session lows. The Fed announced up to $540bn in loans to struggling money market mutual funds which have suffered $500bn in outflows since Aug. NZD/USD looked soft in the London morning, threatening 0.6100, but didn’t break through, gyrating in the low-mid-0.61s in NY.

 

AUD/USD reportedly found steady Asian CB buyers but its underlying tone was soft, trending from above 0.6900 in the London morning to near 0.6800 by the NY afternoon.

 

EUR/USD extended its Asia-Pac losses, losing about 2 cents to trade below 1.3100 after lunch in NY. Discussion continued over the presumed USD demand linked to settlement of Lehmans CDS contracts. Pressure in E Europe markets (e.g. Hungary, Ukraine) also took its toll.

 

USD/JPY moved gently lower as US equities remained underwater and given EUR/JPY selling, slipping from 101.25 late Tokyo to around 100.40.

 

Chicago Fed national activity index falls from –1.61 to –2.57 in Sep. That is a very steep decline but not a surprise as the index is a combination of 80 or so already published data sources, which we already knew were very weak last month (including some one-offs like the hurricane-impacted plunge in Sep industrial production).

 

US weekly retail data soft. Chain store sales fell 1.6% last week, more than reversing the modest gains recorded earlier in the month. The Redbook retail average was down 1.1%.

 

UK CBI industrial trends survey very weak. The monthly survey showed orders and output falling sharply in October, while the quarterly survey revealed a serious plunge in business optimism in Oct relative to July. Prices measures were softer too.

 

Bank of Canada cuts rates 25bp to 2.25%. The 25bp was as Westpac expected but less than the consensus 50bp forecast. Still, the BoC said that “In line with the new outlook, some further monetary stimulus will likely be required to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The evolution of the financial crisis, its impact on the global economy and the timing of the effects of the various extraordinary measures being taken to address it pose significant risks to the projection on both the upside and the downside.”

 

Outlook

The Q3 CPI was as expected and should not affect the RBNZ’s decision on Thursday. We continue to expect a 100bp cash rate cut which should help limit the scope of any NZD/USD rallies. At the margin, the lack of long NZD longs to be unwound still helps the currency versus AUD during risk aversion surges and vice versa.

 

 

Latest Research Papers/Publications

• NZ Q3 CPI Review (21 October)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (20 October)

• RBNZ OCR Preview (17 October)

• NZ Q3 CPI Preview (14 October)

• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (14 October)

• Big bang vs creationism (13 October)

• NZ Q3 QSBO Review (7 October)

These papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac

Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)

 

Upcoming Events

Date Country Release Last Forecast

22 Oct NZ Sep External Migration ann. 4,900 4,500

Aus Q3 Headline CPI 1.5% 1.0%

Q3 Avg RBA Underlying CPI 1.1% 1.0%

Jpn Aug All-Industry Activity Index 0.8% –1.7%

UK BoE MPC Minutes

Can Sep Leading Index 0.2% 0.1%

Aug Retail Sales 0.1% –0.1%

23 Oct NZ RBNZ OCR Review 7.50% 6.50%

US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 18/11 461k 465k

Aug House Prices –0.6% –0.5%

 

 

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.

 

 

 

 

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