was curiously quiet and range-bound in London/NY after brutal price action in
Asia-Pacific trade Wed, even paying little attention to heavy losses on Wall
Street. Three month USD LIBOR fell for an eighth straight session, -29bp to
3.54% while overnight dollars slid to a 4 year low of 1.12% (this peaked on 30
Sep at 6.875%). But worries over emerging markets deepened, with Brazilâ€™s Bovespa
-9% in afternoon trade and Argentinaâ€™s Merval
-18% as its desperate government planned to take over private pension funds. NZD/USD
the 0.6000 handle for a while in London but jagged below 0.5900 in NY as
traders counted down to the RBNZ decision and AUD/NZD marched firmly from
1.1150 to over 1.1400.
quite well after sliding in the scramble for USD in the London morning,
recovering from its 0.6630 low to spend most of NY trade above 0.6700, despite
US equity losses.
selling in Asia-Pac trade, EUR/USD steadied in
the mid-1.2800s in London/NY, showing no great inclination to either keep sliding
or bounce. European stock markets were routed, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 -5.4%.
occasional fleeting rallies but mostly continued its two-day downward trend, to
98.25 in the NY afternoon.
data to report.
August all-industry index declined 1.8%mth following 0.8%mth gain in July,
painting a picture of a slowdown in Japanese production, amid signs of a global
downturn. This followed the rebound of the index in Q2 after declining in Q1
suggesting a faltering growth profile this year. The August all-industry index
included earlier reports showing tertiary index declining 1.4%mth, in sympathy
industrial production falling 3.5%mth. These were partly balanced by the
construction sector rebounding 1.9%mth after sinking in July to its lowest level
in over a decade.
minutes reveal unanimous 9:0 vote to cut 50bp on October 8. The economy had â€śdeteriorated
substantiallyâ€ť, which meant that inflation would slow towards the 2% target
more quickly than previously thought, â€śmaking a strong argument for
participating in the proposed co-ordinated international actionâ€ť. Speaking
yesterday, BoE Governor King admitted the economy was now â€śentering recessionâ€ť,
paving the way for further easing in coming months.
retail sales down 0.3% in Aug. Weakness in auto sales was compounded by
falling gasoline sales (due to lower prices). Other sales were mixed, with
apparel down for the second month running but food and building supplies
posting gains. In other news, the Sep leading index fell 0.2%, its first
decline since March this year, suggesting that the growth outlook is
The Q3 CPI
was as expected and should not affect the RBNZâ€™s decision today. We continue to
expect a 100bp cash rate cut which should help limit the scope of any NZD/USD
rallies but of course eyes mostly remain on the US.
â€˘ NZ Q3 CPI
Review (21 October)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (20 October)
â€˘ RBNZ OCR
Preview (17 October)
â€˘ NZ Q3 CPI
Preview (14 October)
â€˘ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (14 October)
â€˘ Big bang
vs creationism (13 October)
â€˘ NZ Q3 QSBO
Review (7 October)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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