Lenin and Trotsky agreed on
a strategy for the socialist revolution in Russia â€“ by any means necessary. With developed
capitalist economies running headstrong into nationalizing key industries starting
but not ending with banking under the too big, too connected and too
influential to fail principle, one can easily imagine Paulson and Bernanke are
the modern day revolutionaries bringing socialist principles to banking under
the strategy of by any means necessary.
However, I am not making a
case for a Darwinian outcome nor for a Soviet outcome. Both are
unacceptable and neither Paulson nor Bernanke are closet socialists. But
there actions to date speak of far greater fears over the health of the banking
system and economy than I think many give them credit for. Indeed the
actions foretell a by-any-means-necessary response because they perceive the
scale of the problem is so enormous that a revolutionary response is
Think for a minute about the
ideologues in the White House who operated on the assumption that less
government regulation and less government period in markets was best for
everyone now leading the largest government intervention into the banking
system in the nationâ€™s history. Things have to be really bad to allow
this about face. This brings me to the Fed Chairmanâ€™s appearance this
week in Congress where in his prepared remarks he said a second stimulus
package, which Democrats to that point had been advocating, would be
helpful. Well Iâ€™ll be a monkeyâ€™s uncle. Now the White House is on
board. Is this a dream/nightmare?
My point is underestimating
the power of the banking and economic crises and adverse feedback loop has been
the main characteristic of markets for much of the last 14 months. The
Fedâ€™s balance sheet has nearly quintupled this year and is approaching
$2trln. The Fed has cut 375bps since last September and will cut more
October 29 (if not sooner with other central banks in light of the collapse in
equity prices today). The Treasury has committed $250bln into
recapitalizing banks and has another $450bln earmarked for buying distressed
ABS. All arguably needed and yet still not sufficient.
Why? Because the
problem is not staticâ€¦it changes and it is compounded by, and compounds, the
economic crisis. Just when you thought things were cooling down wham and
there is a run to dollars, bonds and out of stocks and EM...the anti-risk
trade. All this makes me think that there are large segments of capital
mkts that are completely illiquid and fund managers are being forced to sell
anything that is the least bit liquid to cover margin calls, redemptions, or
So a partly nationalized
banking system is not the ticket to normal capital mkts with liquid market
segments. Six years of leveraged investing and structured yield plays
does not unwind in 13 months much less 4 weeks. The tide is still rolling
out and exposing new naked swimmers...credit cards, corporate debt (see Bloomberg
on the CDO mess brewing), corporate FX exposure (see WSJ article today on Latam
corporate currency trading gone wild), Latam corporate local currency debt,
leverage loans, convertibles, swaps, credit, commodities...nearly everything.
So policy response has closed gap on banking problem but the banking
problem is not static...it is morphing into new problems and non-bank
corporate/household problems also proving a little underdressed as tide rolls
I still out of the bunker
but have not taken off the lacrosse helmet. God bless Warren Buffet for
buying for his country, but that is so not a successful strategy for this
crisis. Buying equities 10% from the lows two quarters from a bottom is
rational. And since the deeper recession scenario is now the favored one,
equity bear market should last at least until halfway through the recession
which makes next summer the earliest we should expect a bottom in stocks and
frankly this may not happen until late 2009 if the 2-year recession is in our
future. As for the reflation trade â€“ it is coming but will be much later
than most expectâ€¦even with the Fed balance sheet exploding and the treasury
dropping debt from helicoptersâ€¦and yes with all that is wrong with the US banking system and economy the dollar collapse on
reflation will be a very long wait.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.