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Thursday October 23, 2008 - 10:03:56 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Emerging market concerns and weaker EU industrial order data hit equities

Today 05:52am
European Market Update: Emerging market concerns and weaker EU industrial order data hit equities


- (FR) French Oct Business Confidence Indicator: 88 v 89e; Production Outlook Indicator: -66 v -45e; Own-Company Production: -19 v --13e;

- (FR) French Sept Consumer Spending M/M: 0.6% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 0.5%e

- (SW) Swedish Sept PPI M/M: 0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y3.4% v 3.1%e

- (EU) ECB Euro-zone Aug Current Account: -€8.4B v -€1.7B prior; Current Account nsa: -€-7.9B v -€1.1B prior

- (UK) Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.0%e (lowest annual rate since Feb 2006)

- (UK) BBA Loans for House Purchase: 23,422 v 21,342 prior

- (EU) Euro-zone Aug Industrial New Orders M/M: -1.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -6.6% v -0.1%

- (US) Sept foreclosures M/M: -12%; Y/YL 21% y/y; foreclosure filings +71% y/y - RealtyTrac

- (SW) Swedish Riksbank cut interest rates by 50bps to 3.75%, more than expected. Consensus expectations was for a 25bps cut to 4.00%


- In equities: Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] Confirmed its Q3 Net loss of CHF1.3B that it guided back on oct 16th. Q3 revenues were CHF3.11B. Its ROE -13/1% compared to 12.4% y/y . The bank's Tier 1 ratio came in at 10.4% versus 12% y/y. Credit Suisse Wrote down CHF2.4B in credit and market related losses but added it did not need to use the illiquid fund and ended the share buyback. Agreements with the government did not constrain dividend payments. Capitalization remains strong and is disappointed by the Q3 results and its share buyback and dividend programs will not be constrained || Nestle [NESN.SZ] Reported 9-month Revenues of CHF81.4B in line with estimates of CHF81.1B. It raised its FY organic growth to 8.9%. The co. used €10.4B from its Alcon sale to pay down. FX impacted Sales by 8% but added that remains strong financial position. On the conference call the company noted that it saw continued demand for its commercial paper|| Sony [SNE] Guided FY08/09 Net lower to ¥150B compared to ¥240B prior view. The company citied the strong JPY for its reduced forecast. It now saw Op Profit around ¥200B v ¥470B prior and Revenue ¥9.0T v ¥9.2T prior. The company noted it was on track to sell 10M playstation 3S in 2008 || Essilor [EF.FR] Reported Q3 Revenues €757.6M v €755Me, 9-month sales €2.28B (+3.5% y/y) || Syngenta [SYNN.SZ] Reported Q3 Revenues of $2.3B just above analyst estimates of $2.06B. It reaffirmed sees 2008 EPS growing at least 35% with 2009 EPS growth "in high teens" || Skandinaviska Enskilda Bank [SEBA.SW] Reported Q3 Net Interest Income SEK4.55B versus estimates of SEK4.4B. Revenues came in at SEK8.7B just below expectations of SEK8.92B. The bank announced plans to cut 500 jobs in Sweden || Nordea bank [NDA.SW] Reported Q3 Oper Profit of€847M and Net Profit €655M compared to year-ago level of €761M y/y, Its net Net Interest Income €1.3B while its tier 1 Capital Ratio was 7.0% v 7.2% y/y || Stora Enso [STERV.FH] Reported Q3 Revenues of €2.72B below estimates of €2.83B. It registered a net Loss €119.5M below forecasts of €195Me. It noted the benefit of weakening a SEK currency on results. It saw reduced fuel costs in coming quarters || Glaxo [GSK.UK: In exclusive pact with Affiris for Therapeutic Alzheimer vaccines in which the potential value of agreement could reach €430M. Glaxo to pay Affiris €22.5M in up-front payment. || Air Liquide [AI.FR] Secured €2.5B in back up credit ||

- Speakers: Former Fed Chairman Greenspan stated that the $700B US financial market bailout was adequate and urged stricter regulation to address market collapse. The former fed chair stated that the crisis was worse than expected and that that fears of insolvency are significant || German Chancellor Merkel says Germany will do everything in its means to keep economy growing || Commissioner Barroso noted that the financial market crisis required unprecedented levels of global cooperation. Apart from financial turmoil, leaders must address "major imbalances" and suggested that participation of China, India, and Japan were necessary for reform || Former BOJ member Muto noted that he saw a Japanese economic recovery beginning in 2010 || BoE Barker: saw inflation falling sharply in 2009 but noted that the BOE would not lower interest rates on energy price drop only . She added that Business will see the benefits of the government bailout || BoE Besley: Softer commodity prices are welcome and balance of risks have changed. MPC to focus on limiting impact of global shocks but it remains too early to say if further shocks to come. He noted that the recent credit and oil shocks are beginning to unwind || Japan Govt Spokesperson Kawamura noted that must carefully follow how Yen's rise impacts Japanese economy

- In Currencies: The Asian session continues to exhibited the volatility as the trend of lower European pairs against the JPY continued. The USD was modestly weaker from its opening levels seen in Tokyo. EUR/USD at 1.2840 after testing 1.2735 and EUR/JPY probed blow the 123.50 level before bouncing 200 pips towards the 125.40 area. Reportedly weaker CAD helping takeover according to a Globe & Mail article. It noted that buyers were seeing a material decline in the cost of their financing commitment. Sources working on the takeover say the recent currency move makes it more likely that the long-awaited transaction will close, as scheduled, by Dec. 11.

- In Energy: OPEC President stated that they would likely to announce output cuts during Friday's meeting but added it was hard to suggest the exact amount of possible reductions. He stated that it would be fine if Russia, Mexico, Norway joined OPEC in reducing output. Many companies are abandoning oil projects due to lower prices and favored a $90 level per barrel which would help the oil Sands Projects break-even price - Oil prices will continue to decline unless market becomes balanced ||Iran Oil Min Nozari: Reiterated that OPEC output cut will be higher than 1M bpd, 2M bpd cut would stabilize market || OPEC President: Another option for OPEC is to cut supply in phases

*** NOTES ***

- Equity market volatility continues as the US market again experienced steep losses on Wed. The Far East stocks were broadly lower but comments from former fed Chair Greenspan help to sooth thing over for the time being. Greenspan noted that the $700B US financial market bailout plan was adequate. Dealers also noting that a WSJ article on mortgage/foreclosure relief plan is helping US equity futures. However, a weak Euro-zone new order data brought back some risk aversion and sent Both European and US equities to session lows. Emerging markets continue to weigh upon equity sentiment. Sweden's Swedbank noted that its Baltic slowdown is posing a challenging environment and sees credit quality in the area continuing to deteriorate. There were a few interest rate cuts overnight as the New Zealand Central Bank cut by 100bps (as expected), while the Norwegian Central Bank cut by 50bps to 3.75% (was expected to cut by 25bps). The Japanese trade surplus tumbled to Y 95B well below expectations of a Y570B surplus with exports to US weak and exports to the Asian and Euro-Zone areas even softer. ECB members continue with some dovish talk on the inflation front. Gonzalez-Paramo stated that the ECB wasin position to cut rates further without adding to medium term inflation risks. There were rumors that the ECB could cut today as the Gov council meets for a 'non-policy meeting' today.

- Looking ahead: More US corporate earnings with Bristol Myers, Dow Chemical, Enterprise, Altria, Raytheon, UPS among some of the notables before the US open

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Oct 18th. Consensus expectations are 468k; The prior number was 461k.

- 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims w/e Oct 11. Consensus expectations are 3.715M; The prior number was 3.711M.

- 9:00 (BE) Belgian Oct Business Confidence Level. Consensus expectations are -16; The prior number was -14.4.

- 10:00 (US) Aug House Price Index. Consensus expectations are -0.5% ; The prior number was -0.6%.

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