- After a rocky start equity markets are posting respectable gains this
morning. Credit jitters returned briefly early on after the sequential declines
in three-month USD LIBOR hit a wall, the overnight USD LIBOR actually rose and
commercial paper outstanding was seen falling for the seventh week in a row.
The Saudi Arabian oil minister said that market forces should set prices
(OPEC's emergency conference takes place in Vienna
tomorrow), helping crude make hit session lows around $66 before rebounding
nicely. Various OPEC ministers later weighed in with calls for output cuts at
tomorrow's meeting, helping crude rally. Gold briefly tested below the $700/oz level
for fresh 13-month lows.
- The return of credit anxiety is hitting selected financial names in a big
way, with both Goldman and Morgan Stanley down 8%. Wells Fargo and Citi are
down about 2% each. SunTrust has managed to hold things together to a greater
degree than most of its regional banking rivals, reporting earnings and revenue
well ahead of estimates, but profits at the bank are still down nearly one
third y/y. The lender also said it plans to sell $1.6-4.9B of preferred stock
to the government and use proceeds to expand, buy assets or make acquisitions.
Investors are not impressed, and STI has fallen nearly 10% in early trading.
- Consumer-oriented earnings reports continued to show the ongoing recession
fears impacting corporate America.
UPS had a good quarter, beating both earnings and revenue estimates, but the
package delivery giant sees trouble ahead, noting that it is facing a
challenging environment and does not expect the recover to begin until 2010.
The company said it would cut capital investment and reaffirmed its full-year
outlook at the low end of the range offered back in July. Both UPS and rival
FCX are up around 3% in early trading. The New York Times also reported EPS a
bit ahead of expectations, but attention is definitely focusing on the firm's
15.9% decline in ad revenue; shares of NYT are trading down 2%. More ominously,
NYT's CEO warned that she is seeing slowing online ad revenues in October,
mainly because of less display advertising (take note, YHOO and GOOG). US
Airways and JetBlue reported smaller EPS losses than expected this morning,
although the former also reported $488M of unrecognized losses from fuel
hedging instruments. JBLU guided double-digit growth in both revenue and costs
per ASM in the coming quarter. Airline industry vendor Goodrich reported EPS
ahead of the Street but was very cautious on full-year guidance for 2008 and
2009. Investors are dumping the airlines despite the sharp declines in crude,
with LCC-8% and most other names down 6-9%; JBLU is trading around even,
however. Starwood Hotels had solid earnings and revenue numbers but cut its
guidance for the year. Bucking trends, Altria blew out revenue estimates,
helping its stock make modest gains in early trading, although the name up a
- In other earning news, LLY cut way back on its outlook for the year. POT
helped the fertilizer stocks rise around 5% before the open on strong earnings
and in-line guidance. But POT, MOS and AGU are all back in negative territory
mid morning. Oil and recession worries are not troubling the defense sector:
Raytheon beat estimates, hiked its FY08 guidance and offered a positive
forecast for 2009 earnings. RTN is up around 8% in early trading.
- Anxiety regarding the impact of the crisis on emerging markets is driving
currency trading. Today's concerns are focusing on the Baltic region,
specifically on declining credit quality. But the dominant theme remains the
slowing global economy, which is weighing on both European and emerging market
currencies in New York trading.
The GBP/USD cross approached the 1.60 handle, a level it has not breeched since
September, 2003. EUR/USD moved back towards its Asian lows of 1.2735. USD/MXN
hit all-time highs above the 1.1430 level. Risk aversion firmed up the JPY and
CHF as carry-related pairs maintain their heavy tone. A vague rumor that the
IMF was mulling a $1.0T aid package for emerging market countries helped to
reverse the pre-US market price action, despite questions over where the IMF
would get that much funding.
- In fixed income the US
curve is a bit flatter as small risk appetite returns. The two and ten-year
yields are rising but the long bond yield is holding close to unchanged at
4.05%. Fed fund futures are now nearly fully pricing in a 50 basis point cut
next week. European yield curve steepening as equity markets hovered in
negative territory. The spread on German 2-10 year bonds was at 103bps while
the UK spread
was 122 bps. Euro-Stoxx 50 index -2.15 at 2,406; FTSE 100 Index -0.9% at 4,002;
CAC 40 Index -1.65 at 3,246 and DAX Index -3.0% at 4,431.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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