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Forex Blog - European Market Update: OPEC cuts output production by 1.5M BPD; Carry-related unwinding hits global equity markets; Risk aversion galore

Today 06:08am
European Market Update: OPEC cuts output production by 1.5M BPD; Carry-related unwinding hits global equity markets; Risk aversion galore


- (GE) German Sept Import Price Index M/M: -1.0% v -0/8; Y/Y: 7.6% v 7.8%e

- (FR) French Oct PMI Manufacturing: 40.8 v 42.3e (lowest reading on record)

- (FR) French Oct PMI Services:48.8 v 49.0

- (SP) Spanish Q3 Unemployment Rate: 11.33% v 11.5%

- (GE) German Oct PMI Manufacturing: 43.6 v 46e; PMI Services: 49.7 v 48.8e

- (IT) Italian Oct Business Confidence: 77.7 v 81.7e; Consumer Confidence Indicator:102.2 v 100e

- (NE) Dutch Aug Consumer Spending: 1.9% v 1.3% prior

- (EU) Europe Oct PMI Manufacturing: 41.3 v 44.0; PMI Services: 46.9 v 47.0; PMI Composite: 44.6 v 45.4

- (UK) 3Q GDP Q/Q: % v -0.2%e; Y/Y: % v 0.5%

- (UK) Index Aug of Services: % v -0.1%

- (IN) Indian Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged as expected,

- Danish Central Bank raises key rate by 50 bps to 5.50% (Not expected)


- In equities: Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reported Q3 Net SEK1.98B below consensus of SEK3.58Be, Rev SEK69.6B versus SEK70.34Be. The company noted that it saw demand slowdown and cuts its FY08 market forecast. || Peugeot [UG.FR] Lowered its 2008 vehicle forecast to -3.5% v 5.0% prior. It cut its 2008 Operating Margin forecast to 1.3% v 3.5% and added that it planned substantial Production Cuts In Q4, will continue price increases || National Express [NEX.UK] Provided a trading update and maintained its FY outlook. It reported UK Train Revenue remained on track at +9% and that its Spain Revenue on track at 5% || Nest Oil [NES1V.FH] Reported Q3 Op Profit €199M v €158Me, Rev €4.52B v €4.02Be, Cuts FY08 CAPEX to €550M v €600M prior . Its ROE 21.1% v 28.7% y/y and ROC 20.7% v 28.5% y/y|| Scania [SCVA.SW: Reported Q3 Net SEK1.82B below estimates of SEK2.07B. Its revenues were also below expectations wit it coming in at SEK20.43B versus 21.6B estimate. The company noted it could not guide FY09 as future remains 'unclear' . Its 9-month sales came in at SEK66.32B up 11% y/y. || Deutsche Post [DPW.GE] DPW.GE: Provided update on UPS talks regarding DHL unit and noted it remained confident would conclude talks with UPS on DHL by end 2008 although the economic environment was difficult. It reiterated that restructuring costs for U.S. business should be around $2B

- Speakers: (EU) ECB's Nowotny: Sees room to lower interest rates|| French Fin Min Lagarde: Europe has more room to cut rates than US. She noted that inflation has fallen quickly, but does not see risk of deflation || BoE Sentence stated that the risks of severe recession have increased and economic data supports negative outlook . He noted that construction and property sectors are the weakest. The global economy has slowed significantly in last quarter and hopes that the economy avoids the severe recession possibility || Bank of Korea announced that it would add KRW2T to stabilize financial markets and would continue providing additional liquidity if necessary. It noted that most of liquidity to be provided to securities related firms || German Chancellor Merkel: Will coordinate efforts with China in response to financial turmoil || Japan PM Aso noted that the rapid market moves could have a spillover effect into the real economy. He added that the Japanese economy was not in a “bad condition” || French Pres Sarkozy stated that the EU was planning an ambitious proposal for Nov summit. He added that the financial crisis needs world response. Reiterated that he hopes Asia would l back EU proposal at Nov 15 summit. He added that the financial market crisis began in US but and was now a global crisis. Lastly he noted that the world needs fast Asian growth.

- In Currencies: market encountered unprecedented volatility in today's session. The risk aversion theme in currencies went into overdrive as carry-related pairs exhibited annual price movements in a matter of hours. GBP breaks below the 1.60 for the first time in 5-years and proceded to test 1.5260; USD/JPY tested below the 95 level, where coordinated intervention took place in 1995 and fell to 90.90. GBP/JPY was off 17 big figures to test 139.00 ||China and South Korea were exploring the possibility of extending bilateral fx swap agreement and would continue to take join action to calm markets. Both countries called for reform of international financial system

-In Fixed Income: Government bonds made gains in all regions as risk aversion intensified.

The US and EUR yield curves continued their steepeing trends whilst the GBP curve was relatively unchanged in terms of shape, with buying seen in Gilts across all maturates. There was a slight flattening tone in JGB's with better buying in the long end of the curve , 20y and 30y yields falling by 2.5bps and 3.4bps respectively

Dealers noted that 10 year T- Notes were set to make their biggest weekly gain since 1995, with session highs of 103.23 against a closing price of 100.17 on 10/17. 2 year swap spreads were back through 120bps after starting the week at 107bps, and 5yr swap spreads through 100 after starting the week at 98.25, reflecting the reduced risk appetite in swap markets. The Itraxx Crossover widened to 910bps, a record high

Italian Debt Chief: Not a good time to issue short-term and mid-term inflation linked paper

- In Energy: OPEC President Khelil Confirmed OPEC-11 ceiling reduced by 1,5M bpd, effective Nov 1st. He stated that Oil prices are determined by market forces and reiterates its call on non-members to help in restoring price stability. He added that he was 'fully confident' that OPEC members would respect output cut and expected 1.8M BPS out of the market by end of 2008. He saw 2008 demand growth about 400K bpd. || Saudi Oil Min Naimi confirmed that OPEC would enact a 1.5M bpd production cut effective immediately and noted that no one in OPEC talks about a second further cut but a meeting before December is possible. He reiterates oil prices should be determined by market and that the output cut reflected the mismatch between supply and demand. Hopes that OPEC decision stabilizes market prices. The current crisis was not as bad as in 1998 and that the current financial crisis was not OPEC's fault. OPEC members would are analyzing effect of supply cut prior to December meeting. || Saudi oil min denied that OPEC discussed a two supply reduction options || Nigerian Oil Min: Still no consensus over OPEC decision Note: Nigeria has previously commented that cuts in production would harm state budget expectations || Kuwait Oil Min: OPEC oil cuts should not have effect on global economy

*** NOTES ***

- The market encountered unprecedented volatility in today's session. The risk aversion theme in currencies went into overdrive as carry-related pairs exhibited annual price movements in a matter of hours. There was chatter that the US equity markets would not open today spur by suspension in various Asian equities and Russian markets. S. Korea temporarily closed the Kospi temporarily after index drops 10%. European exchanges off 8% to 9%. Today's risk aversion inspired by continued emerging market concerns after the WSJ Reported the IMF is putting 'final touches' on assistance plan for developing nations. The report cites Mexico, Brazil, South Korea and Eastern European nations not running current account deficits as potential recipients of assistance. iTraxx Crossover hitting fresh record highs over 900 bps. OPEC confirmed a 1.5M BPD output cut effective Nov 1st. Treasury's Paulson reportedly planning on purchasing stakes in additional US banks. Dealers noting that perhaps the stage has been set for another coordinated central bank rate cut. Focus now has shifted from the financials to concern about global growth and Asia.

- 7:00 (CA) Canadian CPI. M/M consensus expectations are ; The prior number was . Y/Y Consensus expectations are ; The prior number was .

- 7:00 (CA) Bank of Canada CPI Core. M/M consensus expectations are 0.3%; The prior number was 0.3%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 1.7%; The prior number was 1.7%.

- 10:00 (US) Sept Existing Home Sales. Consensus expectations are 4.95%; The prior number was 4.91%. Existing Home Sales M/M : Consensus expectations are 0.8%; The prior number was -2.2%


- 9:30 (EU ) ECB's Nowotny, and Tumpel-Gugerell to speak in Austria

- 9:55 (EU) ECB's Trichet to speak in Madrid

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