In equities: Volvo [VOLVB.SW] Reported Q3 Net SEK1.98B below consensus
of SEK3.58Be, Rev SEK69.6B versus SEK70.34Be. The company noted that it
saw demand slowdown and cuts its FY08 market forecast. || Peugeot
[UG.FR] Lowered its 2008 vehicle forecast to -3.5% v 5.0% prior. It cut
its 2008 Operating Margin forecast to 1.3% v 3.5% and added that it
planned substantial Production Cuts In Q4, will continue price
increases || National Express [NEX.UK] Provided a trading update and
maintained its FY outlook. It reported UK Train Revenue remained on
track at +9% and that its Spain Revenue on track at 5% || Nest Oil
[NES1V.FH] Reported Q3 Op Profit â‚¬199M v â‚¬158Me, Rev â‚¬4.52B v â‚¬4.02Be,
Cuts FY08 CAPEX to â‚¬550M v â‚¬600M prior . Its ROE 21.1% v 28.7% y/y and
ROC 20.7% v 28.5% y/y|| Scania [SCVA.SW: Reported Q3 Net SEK1.82B below
estimates of SEK2.07B. Its revenues were also below expectations wit it
coming in at SEK20.43B versus 21.6B estimate. The company noted it
could not guide FY09 as future remains 'unclear' . Its 9-month sales
came in at SEK66.32B up 11% y/y. || Deutsche Post [DPW.GE] DPW.GE:
Provided update on UPS talks regarding DHL unit and noted it remained
confident would conclude talks with UPS on DHL by end 2008 although the
economic environment was difficult. It reiterated that restructuring
costs for U.S. business should be around $2B
- Speakers: (EU)
ECB's Nowotny: Sees room to lower interest rates|| French Fin Min
Lagarde: Europe has more room to cut rates than US. She noted that
inflation has fallen quickly, but does not see risk of deflation || BoE
Sentence stated that the risks of severe recession have increased and
economic data supports negative outlook . He noted that construction
and property sectors are the weakest. The global economy has slowed
significantly in last quarter and hopes that the economy avoids the
severe recession possibility || Bank of Korea announced that it would
add KRW2T to stabilize financial markets and would continue providing
additional liquidity if necessary. It noted that most of liquidity to
be provided to securities related firms || German Chancellor Merkel:
Will coordinate efforts with China in response to financial turmoil ||
Japan PM Aso noted that the rapid market moves could have a spillover
effect into the real economy. He added that the Japanese economy was
not in a â€śbad conditionâ€ť || French Pres Sarkozy stated that the EU was
planning an ambitious proposal for Nov summit. He added that the
financial crisis needs world response. Reiterated that he hopes Asia
would l back EU proposal at Nov 15 summit. He added that the financial
market crisis began in US but and was now a global crisis. Lastly he
noted that the world needs fast Asian growth.
- In Currencies:
market encountered unprecedented volatility in today's session. The
risk aversion theme in currencies went into overdrive as carry-related
pairs exhibited annual price movements in a matter of hours. GBP breaks
below the 1.60 for the first time in 5-years and proceded to test
1.5260; USD/JPY tested below the 95 level, where coordinated
intervention took place in 1995 and fell to 90.90. GBP/JPY was off 17
big figures to test 139.00 ||China and South Korea were exploring the
possibility of extending bilateral fx swap agreement and would continue
to take join action to calm markets. Both countries called for reform
of international financial system
-In Fixed Income: Government bonds made gains in all regions as risk aversion intensified.
US and EUR yield curves continued their steepeing trends whilst the GBP
curve was relatively unchanged in terms of shape, with buying seen in
Gilts across all maturates. There was a slight flattening tone in JGB's
with better buying in the long end of the curve , 20y and 30y yields
falling by 2.5bps and 3.4bps respectively
Dealers noted that 10
year T- Notes were set to make their biggest weekly gain since 1995,
with session highs of 103.23 against a closing price of 100.17 on
10/17. 2 year swap spreads were back through 120bps after starting the
week at 107bps, and 5yr swap spreads through 100 after starting the
week at 98.25, reflecting the reduced risk appetite in swap markets.
The Itraxx Crossover widened to 910bps, a record high
Italian Debt Chief: Not a good time to issue short-term and mid-term inflation linked paper
In Energy: OPEC President Khelil Confirmed OPEC-11 ceiling reduced by
1,5M bpd, effective Nov 1st. He stated that Oil prices are determined
by market forces and reiterates its call on non-members to help in
restoring price stability. He added that he was 'fully confident' that
OPEC members would respect output cut and expected 1.8M BPS out of the
market by end of 2008. He saw 2008 demand growth about 400K bpd. ||
Saudi Oil Min Naimi confirmed that OPEC would enact a 1.5M bpd
production cut effective immediately and noted that no one in OPEC
talks about a second further cut but a meeting before December is
possible. He reiterates oil prices should be determined by market and
that the output cut reflected the mismatch between supply and demand.
Hopes that OPEC decision stabilizes market prices. The current crisis
was not as bad as in 1998 and that the current financial crisis was not
OPEC's fault. OPEC members would are analyzing effect of supply cut
prior to December meeting. || Saudi oil min denied that OPEC discussed
a two supply reduction options || Nigerian Oil Min: Still no consensus
over OPEC decision Note: Nigeria has previously commented that cuts in
production would harm state budget expectations || Kuwait Oil Min: OPEC
oil cuts should not have effect on global economy
*** NOTES ***
The market encountered unprecedented volatility in today's session. The
risk aversion theme in currencies went into overdrive as carry-related
pairs exhibited annual price movements in a matter of hours. There was
chatter that the US equity markets would not open today spur by
suspension in various Asian equities and Russian markets. S. Korea
temporarily closed the Kospi temporarily after index drops 10%.
European exchanges off 8% to 9%. Today's risk aversion inspired by
continued emerging market concerns after the WSJ Reported the IMF is
putting 'final touches' on assistance plan for developing nations. The
report cites Mexico, Brazil, South Korea and Eastern European nations
not running current account deficits as potential recipients of
assistance. iTraxx Crossover hitting fresh record highs over 900 bps.
OPEC confirmed a 1.5M BPD output cut effective Nov 1st. Treasury's
Paulson reportedly planning on purchasing stakes in additional US
banks. Dealers noting that perhaps the stage has been set for another
coordinated central bank rate cut. Focus now has shifted from the
financials to concern about global growth and Asia.
7:00 (CA) Canadian CPI. M/M consensus expectations are ; The prior
number was . Y/Y Consensus expectations are ; The prior number was .
7:00 (CA) Bank of Canada CPI Core. M/M consensus expectations are 0.3%;
The prior number was 0.3%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 1.7%; The
prior number was 1.7%.
- 10:00 (US) Sept Existing Home Sales.
Consensus expectations are 4.95%; The prior number was 4.91%. Existing
Home Sales M/M : Consensus expectations are 0.8%; The prior number was
- 9:30 (EU ) ECB's Nowotny, and Tumpel-Gugerell to speak in Austria
- 9:55 (EU) ECB's Trichet to speak in Madrid
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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