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Friday October 24, 2008 - 16:06:29 GMT
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Forex Blog - US Market Update

Today 11:16am
US Market Update

Dow -360 NASDAQ -61 S&P -39

- US equity indices opened under serious duress as investors dumped stocks around the world on heightened fears of a pending, global economic calamity. The decline got underway in Asia, after Sony slashed its full-year earnings forecast, with the Nikkei falling 9.6% for the day. Europe followed, helped along by Daimler's abandoning its full-year guidance; the DAX was down nearly 9% by the US equity open, while the CAC40 was down nearly 8.9%. The FTSE 100 fell 8.2% after UK government's GPD reading put the country officially at the brink of recession. Trading in S&P500 futures was suspended limit down just past 6am in the US while the VIX spiked more than 30% to fresh all-time highs, reflecting the very elevated uncertainty. All 30 Dow components opened in negative territory. OPEC cut production by 1.5M bpd, regardless, front-month crude is down more than $3.50 around $64. OPEC President Khelil insists he's not concerned by the price slide in the wake of the decision. PIMCO's El-Erian commented on the situation, saying that we are seeing markets getting closer to the end of the massive deleveraging process and insisted that the credit pipes are starting to unclog. However today's three-month USD LIBOR reading fell only a tiny bit, after no decline yesterday, while the overnight rose for a second day in a row.

- After a busy week the earnings news is somewhat subdued, with notable reports from Exelon, Ingersoll-Rand, ITT and Timken; all but Timken cut their full-year guidance, while Timken guided well-below estimates for the coming quarter. EXC missed revenue estimates by a wide margin, noting that quarterly results reflect unusual weather and negative macroeconomic factors. IR came in even with EPS estimates, ex costs associated with its acquisition of Trane. ITT came in broadly above analysts' views; the CEO said ITT is restructuring, in preparation for a softening of the global economy. Specialty steel maker TKR stomped earnings estimates and reaffirmed its full-year outlook. In other equity news, PNC announced it was acquiring NCC for $2.23/shr, in a deal valued at $5.2B. In addition, PNC said it plans to issue to the US Treasury $7.7B of preferred stock and related warrants under the TARP program as part of the deal. The transaction is expected to be accretive to PNC's earnings in the second year.

- The carry-related trades displayed dramatic price movements on Friday. One hedge fund manger noted that JPY-related flows have been rippling around the globe in recent trading sessions, whereas previously the flows had originated from Australia via the AUD/JPY crisis. Now the momentum is from the Europe via the EUR and GBP. The GBP/USD cross approached the 1.60 handle (a level it has not breeched since September, 2003.) and once it broke it gaped to test 1.5270 level. GBP/JPY tested 139.00. Yield curves both here and across the pond are steeper but sellers have entered the US Treasury market since the New York equity open. The 10-year note future is actually trading lower. The long bond yield is back above 4% after declining to lows not seen since the late 1970's ahead of the open. At one point the Nov fed fund future priced in roughly a 50% chance the Fed cuts rates by 75 basis points next week, but that has since backed off below 30%.


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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

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