- In equities: Deutsche Post [DPW.GE] Confirmed press speculation and lowered
its 2008 EBIT forecast to â‚¬2.4B v â‚¬2.9B prior. The company withdrew guidance
for 2009 but sees 'profit progress' || Deutsche Post bank [DPB.GE] Reported Q3
Pretax loss â‚¬449M and cited the financial market crisis for negative results.
It announced a capital increase through rights offering and Guaranteed entire
capital increase at subscription price of â‚¬18.25/shr. It noted that its
agreement with Deutsche Bank remained on track. Its tier 1 ratio would improve
to 6.9% after capital increase and scrapped its FY08 dividend payment || KBC
[KBC.BE] To receive â‚¬3.5B capital increase from Belgian Government , and to
issue debt securities which would not dilute shareholders stake. The bank would
not pay dividend in 2008 and added that its executive committee has already
agreed upon forgoing bonuses.
- Says no impact on business strategy
- Tier 1 now above 8%
Royal bank of Scotland [RBS.UK} Press speculation circulating chatter that the
bank would announce some writedowns of Â£4.50 to Â£5.0B later this week || Merck
KGAA [MRK.GE] Reported Q3 Net â‚¬200.1M versus â‚¬202M estimates. Its operating
profit â‚¬309.3M in line with consensus of â‚¬310Me. The company beat revenue
expectations with â‚¬1.98B compared â‚¬1.86B estimates. Merck KGAA reaffirmed its
FY08 targets with revenue growth of 5% to 9% seen (unchanged from prior view)
and tightened Merck Serono sales target to 8% to 10% from prior view of 7% to
11%. || Lonza [LONN.SZ] Guided EBIT growth in mid-high teens through 2013. The
company saw solid demand in their businesses going forward with pipeline
"aligned to support growth expectations"|| SGS [SGSN.SZ] Guided FY08
Rev growth at 10%, sees strong demand for all services || DSM [DSM.NV] reported
Q3 Net Profit â‚¬182M v â‚¬176Me (ex items), EBIT â‚¬267M v â‚¬256Me, Rev â‚¬2.36B v
â‚¬2.40Be. It lowered its FY08 EBIT outlook citing that parts of materials
sciences and of base chemicals and materials have seen weakening end markets.
It did note that it saw the performance of Nutrition remains strong
||Basilea Pharm [BSLN.SZ] Presents data on novel Antibiotic BAL30072 in which
showed that the minimal inhibitory concentrations of BAL30072 for many strains
of beta-lactam-resistant Gram-negative bacteria were lower than those of
comparator antibiotics, providing evidence of BAL30072's high antibacterial
activity in vitro. || Roche [ROG.SZ] ROG.SZ: Mabthera continues to improve
patient response in Rheumatoid Arthritis || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] Porsche
discloses 74.1% stake and planned full financial control in 2009
- Speakers: IFO's Abberger stated that German export prospects have worsened
despite weaker Euro and lower oil prices . Bank lending has become tougher and
that the main danger for Germany would be a credit crunch||IFO Nerb:
Expectations are exaggerated; ECB should cut rates by 50bps Lower Euro currency
rate would suggest better position for European exporters. He added that Germany
should increase infrastructure spending and that the index is likely
overshooting towards bottom in expectations index || Japan Govt Spokesperson
Kawamura stated that Japan
welcomed the G-7 statement regarding yen volatility. He added that Japan
did not rule out a second supplementary budget || Polish Central Bank noted
that it would seek CHF to lend to domestic banks. It added that the current
market 'correction' would only be temporary and that bank deposit guarantees
should not continue indefinitely. Lastly markets must calm before Euro entry
can take place || Hungarian Central Bank Chief stated tat an interest rate hike
make speculation harder on currency in a newspaper interview. He added that he
saw inflation around 3% by end of 2009 or early 2010. || BoE's Dale stated that
Economy is not entirely about "doom and gloom" || Japan
PM Aso stated that one should not be overly concerned about recent fall in
equity prices . he added that it would take a while for economic steps to have
an impact on share prices || BoJ's Dep Gov Yamaguchi stated that Interest rates
remained very low and that the rise in Yen could impact Japanese economy and
its prices. He added that world market tension are increasing rapidly. The BOJ
is planning to implement appropriate policy while following currency moves'
impact on economy and would stabilize financial markets with liquidity
injections. The official noted that banks' lending attitude towards small firms
was tightening and expressed that BOJ policy making wa a difficult phase. ||
EU's Almunia does not want real interest rates to drop to negative levels
- In Currencies: G7 express deeper concern over Yen rally || Japan Fin Min
Sugimoto stated that officials would continue to watch currency markets with
great interest; BOK cuts by record 75bp || Indian Rupee hits fresh all-time
lows versus USD near 50.18. EUR/USD tests 1.2330 in session before rebounding.
Volatility remains at historically high levels, particularly in JPY and GBP
related pairs. Dealers taking note of the G7 comment on the JPY price movement
and ponder where and when a coordinated central bank operation could take
-In Fixed Income: The yield curves continue to steepen as risk aversion
continued to be the norm in the markets. The iTraxx Crossover Index widens
towards the 950 level for fresh all-time highs || Russia Central bank sets swap
limits at RUB150B from RUB10B prior
- In Energy: Qatar PM: Current price of oil is slightly low, country seeks
protection from low oil prices || Qatar Oil Min stated that for budget purposes
oil needs to stay above $55/Bpd. He noted that OPEC was monitoring current
economic crisis and would wait before calling another extraordinary meeting
- Financial market Crisis: Japanese regulators have banned naked short selling
from Nov 4th || ECB established â‚¬12B currency swap line with Denmark and added
that the line to remain in place indefinitely
*** NOTES ***
- The week begins practically where it left off. Dealers noting that Prime
brokers have raised collateral calls in today's session thus prompting
additional waves of liquidation. The Currency markets remain highly volatile
and traders taking note of the Telegraph article that Europe
was on the brink of currency crisis meltdown. G7 reaffirmed its basic stance
regarding market volatility and singled out the JPY. However, dealers want more
than words. G7 also reaffirmed its belief in a strong international financial
market system . In an emergency meeting the Central bank of South
Korea slashed their interest rates by 75
bps. The IMF noted that it continues to work on loan packages to Ukraine,
Iceland and Hungary.
are also in the game for raising new capital as Mitsubishi UJF conformed press
speculation to raise roughly Â¥1T. European data continues to be bad. German IFO
below expectations on the key Business Climate index and its members calling
for 50bps ECB rate cut. German companies continue to issue profit warnings.
European time zone shift could provide an opportunity for a coordinated central
bank move in either currencies or interest rates. lastly, Monday inoctober are
always a concern....
- (US) Sept New Home Sales.
Consensus expectations are 450k; The prior number was 460k. M/M consensus
expectations are -2.2% ; The prior number was -11.5%.
- (UK) Oct
Nationwide House Prices. M/M consensus expectations are -1.5%; The prior number
was -1.7% . Y/Y Consensus expectations are -14.7% ; The prior number was
- 9:00 (EU) ECB's Trichet to speak in Madrid
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
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Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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