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Forex Blog - European Market Update: The week begins where it left off with risk aversion and de-leveraging

Today 06:00am

European Market Update: The week begins where it left off with risk aversion and de-leveraging

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (SP ) Spanish Sept Producer Prices M/M: -0.7% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 8.1% v 8.5%e

- (SW) Swedish Sept Trade Balance: SEK10.6B v SEK1.5Be

- (SW) Swedish Sept Household Lending Y/Y: 9.7 v 9.6%e

- (GE) German Oct IFO - Business Climate: 90.2 v 91.0e; Current Assessment: 99.9 v 97.0e; Expectations: 81.4 v 85.0e

- 5:00 (EU) Euro-zone Sept M3 Y/Y: 8.6% v 8.5%e; 3 Mth Ave: 8.9% v 8.8%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: Deutsche Post [DPW.GE] Confirmed press speculation and lowered its 2008 EBIT forecast to €2.4B v €2.9B prior. The company withdrew guidance for 2009 but sees 'profit progress' || Deutsche Post bank [DPB.GE] Reported Q3 Pretax loss €449M and cited the financial market crisis for negative results. It announced a capital increase through rights offering and Guaranteed entire capital increase at subscription price of €18.25/shr. It noted that its agreement with Deutsche Bank remained on track. Its tier 1 ratio would improve to 6.9% after capital increase and scrapped its FY08 dividend payment || KBC [KBC.BE] To receive €3.5B capital increase from Belgian Government , and to issue debt securities which would not dilute shareholders stake. The bank would not pay dividend in 2008 and added that its executive committee has already agreed upon forgoing bonuses.

- Says no impact on business strategy

- Tier 1 now above 8%

Royal bank of Scotland [RBS.UK} Press speculation circulating chatter that the bank would announce some writedowns of £4.50 to £5.0B later this week || Merck KGAA [MRK.GE] Reported Q3 Net €200.1M versus €202M estimates. Its operating profit €309.3M in line with consensus of €310Me. The company beat revenue expectations with €1.98B compared €1.86B estimates. Merck KGAA reaffirmed its FY08 targets with revenue growth of 5% to 9% seen (unchanged from prior view) and tightened Merck Serono sales target to 8% to 10% from prior view of 7% to 11%. || Lonza [LONN.SZ] Guided EBIT growth in mid-high teens through 2013. The company saw solid demand in their businesses going forward with pipeline "aligned to support growth expectations"|| SGS [SGSN.SZ] Guided FY08 Rev growth at 10%, sees strong demand for all services || DSM [DSM.NV] reported Q3 Net Profit €182M v €176Me (ex items), EBIT €267M v €256Me, Rev €2.36B v €2.40Be. It lowered its FY08 EBIT outlook citing that parts of materials sciences and of base chemicals and materials have seen weakening end markets. It did note that it saw the performance of Nutrition remains strong

||Basilea Pharm [BSLN.SZ] Presents data on novel Antibiotic BAL30072 in which showed that the minimal inhibitory concentrations of BAL30072 for many strains of beta-lactam-resistant Gram-negative bacteria were lower than those of comparator antibiotics, providing evidence of BAL30072's high antibacterial activity in vitro. || Roche [ROG.SZ] ROG.SZ: Mabthera continues to improve patient response in Rheumatoid Arthritis || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] Porsche discloses 74.1% stake and planned full financial control in 2009

- Speakers: IFO's Abberger stated that German export prospects have worsened despite weaker Euro and lower oil prices . Bank lending has become tougher and that the main danger for Germany would be a credit crunch||IFO Nerb: Expectations are exaggerated; ECB should cut rates by 50bps Lower Euro currency rate would suggest better position for European exporters. He added that Germany should increase infrastructure spending and that the index is likely overshooting towards bottom in expectations index || Japan Govt Spokesperson Kawamura stated that Japan welcomed the G-7 statement regarding yen volatility. He added that Japan did not rule out a second supplementary budget || Polish Central Bank noted that it would seek CHF to lend to domestic banks. It added that the current market 'correction' would only be temporary and that bank deposit guarantees should not continue indefinitely. Lastly markets must calm before Euro entry can take place || Hungarian Central Bank Chief stated tat an interest rate hike make speculation harder on currency in a newspaper interview. He added that he saw inflation around 3% by end of 2009 or early 2010. || BoE's Dale stated that Economy is not entirely about "doom and gloom" || Japan PM Aso stated that one should not be overly concerned about recent fall in equity prices . he added that it would take a while for economic steps to have an impact on share prices || BoJ's Dep Gov Yamaguchi stated that Interest rates remained very low and that the rise in Yen could impact Japanese economy and its prices. He added that world market tension are increasing rapidly. The BOJ is planning to implement appropriate policy while following currency moves' impact on economy and would stabilize financial markets with liquidity injections. The official noted that banks' lending attitude towards small firms was tightening and expressed that BOJ policy making wa a difficult phase. || EU's Almunia does not want real interest rates to drop to negative levels

- In Currencies: G7 express deeper concern over Yen rally || Japan Fin Min Sugimoto stated that officials would continue to watch currency markets with great interest; BOK cuts by record 75bp || Indian Rupee hits fresh all-time lows versus USD near 50.18. EUR/USD tests 1.2330 in session before rebounding. Volatility remains at historically high levels, particularly in JPY and GBP related pairs. Dealers taking note of the G7 comment on the JPY price movement and ponder where and when a coordinated central bank operation could take place.

-In Fixed Income: The yield curves continue to steepen as risk aversion continued to be the norm in the markets. The iTraxx Crossover Index widens towards the 950 level for fresh all-time highs || Russia Central bank sets swap limits at RUB150B from RUB10B prior

- In Energy: Qatar PM: Current price of oil is slightly low, country seeks protection from low oil prices || Qatar Oil Min stated that for budget purposes oil needs to stay above $55/Bpd. He noted that OPEC was monitoring current economic crisis and would wait before calling another extraordinary meeting

- Financial market Crisis: Japanese regulators have banned naked short selling from Nov 4th || ECB established €12B currency swap line with Denmark and added that the line to remain in place indefinitely

*** NOTES ***

- The week begins practically where it left off. Dealers noting that Prime brokers have raised collateral calls in today's session thus prompting additional waves of liquidation. The Currency markets remain highly volatile and traders taking note of the Telegraph article that Europe was on the brink of currency crisis meltdown. G7 reaffirmed its basic stance regarding market volatility and singled out the JPY. However, dealers want more than words. G7 also reaffirmed its belief in a strong international financial market system . In an emergency meeting the Central bank of South Korea slashed their interest rates by 75 bps. The IMF noted that it continues to work on loan packages to Ukraine, Iceland and Hungary. Japan's banks are also in the game for raising new capital as Mitsubishi UJF conformed press speculation to raise roughly ¥1T. European data continues to be bad. German IFO below expectations on the key Business Climate index and its members calling for 50bps ECB rate cut. German companies continue to issue profit warnings. European time zone shift could provide an opportunity for a coordinated central bank move in either currencies or interest rates. lastly, Monday inoctober are always a concern....

Looking ahead:

- 10:00 (US) Sept New Home Sales. Consensus expectations are 450k; The prior number was 460k. M/M consensus expectations are -2.2% ; The prior number was -11.5%.

- (UK) Oct Nationwide House Prices. M/M consensus expectations are -1.5%; The prior number was -1.7% . Y/Y Consensus expectations are -14.7% ; The prior number was -12.4%.

- 9:00 (EU) ECB's Trichet to speak in Madrid

 

 

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