Monday October 27, 2008 - 15:40:26 GMT
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GVI Trading Outlook: Commodity Currencies, Oil and Gold for October 27, 2008
GVI Trading Outlook: Commodity Currencies, Oil and Gold for October 27, 2008:
- The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) are all trading lower, as the financial markets probe for some sort of stability.
- The RBA intervened in the forex markets on Friday and Monday to support the unit. The problem is that retail carry trade investors in Japan have large cumulative exposures to the high yielding Aussie and New Zealand dollars and just want to get out of the exposures. They likey do not see these investments as speculative trades and will not be impacted by the spectre of central bank intervention once the decision has been made to get out.
- Japanese players continue to key participants in the markets. The 6% decline in the Nikkei today only encouraged repatriation demand for the JPY.
- Crude oil is weaker desite the production cut of 1.5 mln BBD on Friday. The production cut seen as having been taken from a position of weakness. Gold is trading down.
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