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Monday October 27, 2008 - 18:05:36 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (27 October 2008)

The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2335 level and was capped around the $1.2685 level.  The common currency reached its lowest level since April 2006.  At least ten additional U.S. banks joined the U.S. Treasury Department’s US$ 250 billion program to recapitalize the troubled U.S. banking sector, applying for an aggregate US$ 17.6 billion in fresh capital infusions.  Data released in the U.S. today saw the September Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index off 2.6%.  Other data saw September new home sales print at an annualized 464,000 rate while September building permits were revised to -6.0% from -8.3%.  The Federal Open Market Committee convenes tomorrow and Wednesday and is largely expected to reduce its overnight federal funds target rate by as much as 50bps to counter the severe dislocations in the U.S. credit markets.  In eurozone news, European Central Bank President Trichet reported “I consider possible that the Governing Council will decrease interest rates once again at its next meeting on Nov. 6. It is not a certainty, it is a possibility. New information is likely to indicate a further alleviation to upside risks to inflation in the medium term. Taking into account the recent decline in commodity prices together with the substantial weakening demand that has emerged lately, upside risks to price stability have diminished.”  Similarly, ECB member Orphanides reported “I wish to stress that in the case of the European Central Bank this (Oct. 8 rate cut) does not oppose the medium term target of the ECB to maintain inflation at the level of 2.0 percent or slightly less.  Since recent data confirm that because of the recent reduction in the price of oil and a slowdown in the economy, the inflationary expectations in the euro zone have receded significantly.”  Data released in the eurozone today saw the October German Ifo business climate index decline for the fifth consecutive month, reaching 90.2 – its lowest level since May 2003.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2135 level.



¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥91.85 level and was capped around the ¥94.50 level.  Traders reacted to an emergency statement from the Group of Seven in which policymakers reported “We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We continue to monitor markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate."  This is the first time the G7 has singled out the yen in one of its communiqués since January 2000.  Traders are split as to whether or not this means the G7 is more inclined or less inclined to conduct yen-selling intervention. French finance minister Lagarde today said “The yen has over the past 48 hours seen brutal trading that reflects a great volatility that's linked to current market moves.  We wished to support this possible intervention of Japanese authorities knowing this would be about a purely Japanese intervention.”  Her statement renders it less likely that global monetary authorities will conduct a concerted yen-selling intervention.  Data released in Japan overnight saw the September corporate services price index fall 0.4% m/m and climb 0.1% y/y.  Finance minister Nakagawa verbally intervened saying “I see rapid moves in the yen as excessive.  I'm watching currency markets with great interest.”  New Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Yamaguchi reported Japanese interest rates remain very low and said the yen’s recent surge could result in lower exports and corporate revenues.  Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Japan’s largest bank, will raise up to US$ 10.6 billion by issuing new shares.  Prime Minister Aso reported the government will expand a scheme that gives banks access to public funds and limits the short-selling of shares.  Aso also said limits on banks’ recapitalizations should be raised.  The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 6.36% to close at ¥7,162.90.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥113.60 level and was capped around the ¥119.40 level.  The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥140.65 and ¥78.70 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8523 in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8433.  Data released in China overnight saw September urban registered unemployment print at 4.0%.


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

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