slow news day in the US and
inconclusive price action on Wall Street saw the USD retreat from
its early London strength.
US new home sales were better than expected, posting a monthly rise in
September, providing some passing support to equities and yen crosses.
its losses as far as 0.5352 in the London morning but
followed the Dow Jones higher to the 0.5430 area in the NY afternoon.
as low as 0.6024 in London, managed to
rally back to test 0.6150 multiple times in NY as US equities outperformed the rest
of the world but remained fragile. There were further reports in London of RBA
providing liquidity on AUD/USD.
its lows in London around the
same time as AUD, NZD and USD/JPY, touching 1.2335. It then fought reported
semi-official offers in the low 1.24s to push back above 1.2500 in NY. ECB
president Trichet said there was a possibility of a rate cut next week. Intervention
talk continued to swirl around
USD/JPY, after the
G7 released an unexpected, brief statement noting their concerns about excessive
volatility in the yen. The pair slipped to 92.05 in nervous London trade but
ground back to 93.60/70 in NY.
home sales rose 2.2% in September, following up a 5.5% bounce in existing home
sales reported on Friday night. The stock of unsold homes fell from 11.4 monthsβ
supply to 10.4. We would be wary of the improvement in these figures, as there
was a sharp fall in mortgage rates in September after the mortgage agencies
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were nationalized β this was subsequently reversed
in early October. Sales were also likely to have received a boost from
accelerating foreclosure sales, as reported for California.
German Ifo survey fell to 90.2 in October, suggesting that the German
economy continued to contract at the start of the fourth quarter. The current
business climate index was basically unchanged but the expectations index
slumped to 81.4, the lowest reading in 40 years. Ifo economist Nerb said that
the ECB should cut rates by 50bp next month, but also suggested that German
growth should stabilize next year and that there is plenty of room for fiscal
economy is slowing rapidly and New
Zealand is exposed on three fronts - tighter
credit, weaker demand and lower commodity prices. A softer currency will be
needed for an extended period to soften the blow. The USD remains in favour
through this crisis, more by default than by merit.
β’ RBNZ OCR
Review (23 October)
β’ NZ Q3 CPI
Review (21 October)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (20 October)
β’ RBNZ OCR
Preview (17 October)
β’ NZ Q3 CPI
Preview (14 October)
β’ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (14 October)
β’ Big bang
vs creationism (13 October)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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