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Forex Blog - European market Update: Volkswagen leads DAX higher, risk appetite appears to have returned today

Today 06:36am

European market Update: Volkswagen leads DAX higher, risk appetite appears to have returned today

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (GE) German Nov GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 1.9 v 1.5e

- (FR) French Oct Consumer Confidence Indicator: -47 v -46e;

- (FR) French Oct Housing Starts 3M Y/Y: -8.1 v -13.1e; Housing Permits 3M Y/Y: -23.3% v -20.3%e

- (FR) French Oct Business Survey Overall Demand: -19 v -7 prior

- (IT) Italian Oct Retailers Confidence General: 105.7 v 111.0 prior; Services Survey:-18 v -2 prior

- (NE) Dutch Oct Producer Confidence M/M: -6.1% v -3.0%e; Y/Y: -27% v -30;

- (SW) Swedish Sept Retail Sales M/M:-0.5% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.6% 0.9%

- (IT) Italian Sept Hourly Wages M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.2%e

- (SZ) Swiss Sept UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.669 v 1.581prior

- (GE) Oct CPI - North Rhine-Westphalia M/M: -0.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.6% prior .

- Iceland central bank raised key rate by 600bps to 18.0%, not expected. Note the bank CUT its rates by 350 bps back on Oct 15th


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities, Honda Motors [HMC] Reported its Q2 Net ¥123.3B compared to estimates of ¥131Be. The company lowered its Group FY Net Profit view to ¥485B from ¥490B prior, Oper Profit view to ¥550B v ¥630B prior, Rev view to ¥11.60T v ¥12.17Te . Honda revised its global FY car sales outlook to 4.02M units v 4.08M prior || British Petroleum [BP.UK] Reported Q3 Net $8.05B above estimates of $7.02B. Revenues came in a bit below expectations with $104.8B versus $107.65B seen by analysts. Q3 CAPEX $8.9B while total CAPEX for the first 9-months was$23.7B. Q3 Production 3.66M BOE/day v 3/8M BOE/day q/q. CEO noted that oil prices could drop further due to a global recession. || Danske Bank [DANSKE.DE] Reported Q3 Net DKK1.1B compared to DKK3.64B year ago with revenues of DKK9.19B v DKK11.2B y/y. the bank lowered it FY08 outlook. || Tom Tom [TOM2.NV] Reported Q3 Net Profit €58M in line with estimates of €58M but revenues came in light with €429M below estimates of €475M. Tom Tom lowered its FY08 sales outlook to €1.75B-€1.85B compared to consensus estimates of €1.93B and EBITA margin in range of 20% to 24%. It expected to sell 12 to13M PND's in FY08 below its prior view of 14-15M. Its Q3 Gross Margin came in at 56% v 51% estimates with an ASP of €136 compared to expectations of €127e. It noted that growing demand for navigation solutions despite weakening economy. Lastly the company added that it successfully renegotiated loan conditions (debts and covenants). || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] Huge short squeeze continues in firm following the weekend announcement that Porsche plans to up its stake to 75%. Shares opened 2008 and €151.35 and are now trading above €887.85, an increase of €736.50. At its new share price, VOW replaces Nestle as Europe's most valuable company by market cap. Stock continues to surge, up 90%.|| Aegon [AGN.NV] Secured a €3.5B of core capital from Dutch State and Guided its Q3 Net loss €350M, adding that it would not distribute final dividend. The core capital was secured from the Dutch State via its largest shareholder, Vereniging AEGON. it will issue 750M non-voting securities at €4/shr to Vereniging AEGON. ||USG People [USG.NV] Reported Q3 Net €32.7M below estimates of €35.6Me. its Rev €1.07B was in line ith consensus esti ates of €1.06B. The company noted it would implement staff cuts and added that its short term outlook in Europe continued to deteriorate. It stated that it would experience a rapid drop in Spanish and French staffing and focus remained on cutting costs || Biomerieux [BIM.FR: Reports 9-month Rev €799.3M, +7.4% y/y (at constant exchange rates), Maintains FY08 targets inline with prior expectations || TeliaSonera [TLSN.SW] Reports Q3 Net SEK4.77B v SEK4.90Be, Rev SEK25.8B v 25.8Be. it maintained their FY08 outlook as sales have remain stable. . || Publicis [PUB.FR] Reports Q3 Rev €1.11B v €1.12B y/y || Nomura [8604.JP] Reported Q2 Net Loss ¥72.9B larger than the loss ¥9.0B consensus estimates. Revenues were ¥357.7B compared to ¥420.7B y/y. || European bourses opened higher following late Asian rally. DAX opened +4.17% trading at 4512.22, CAC opened +2.17% trading at 3130.25, and the FTSE opened +2.67% trading at 3852.59. The DAX continues to outperform driven by the extraordinary trading taking place within VOW.GE. The FTSE remains positive up +20.9%. The CAC is off session lows and flirting with the unchanged mark down now only -0.04% from -1.25%. On the CAC, [BPN.FR] -6.17% is the leading lager on continued rumors of write downs and residual effects of the credit crisis

- In speakers, Norges Bank stated that commercial banks expect further tightening of credit during Q4 citing the current funding situation and the economic outlook. || German Bafin Regulator stated that they are currently analyzing VOW.GE trading after the surges surged above the EUR1,000/shr level. This made Volkswagen the largest company in the world based upon market cap. || German Fin Min: European Commission approves German Bank Bailout Fund.

- In currencies: The currency price action took its signal from the closing hour of Japanese trading. The carry-related pairs gained momentum as risk appetite for equities increased during the final hour Nikkei trading. EUR/JPY surged to 120.50 from lows of 114.40 area. USD/JPY probed towards the 96 neighborhood before retreating to 94.70 area. Dealers noting that some 'risk appetite' returned to market aided by Japanese Pension Funds buying shares. The rapid JPY weakness prompted unconfirmed rumors that the BOJ was 'intervening' in the currency markets. || Belgium bank Dexia [DEXB.BE] Noted that its Slovakia unit was impacted by currency exposure and the parent would book €82M charge

- In fixed income, pressure in the government bond markets was seen across the board as money flowed back into equities. The UK gilt curve was relatively unchanged in terms of shape, but slightly better selling of the 10-year T-Note saw the US yield curve steeper ahead of today's 2y T-note tap (the first supply to support TARP). Bear steepening was also seen in Germany; with the benchmark 10y Bund yielding 3.82%, an increase of 5.4bps. The Dec Bund future has reversed most of last week's gains, trading as low as 116.28, down 83 ticks on yesterday's close. Dealers noted the spread between the benchmark 10y Bund and 10year T-note had settled around +2bps, its highest level in 11 years. The iTraxx crossover index narrowed from yesterday all time high, and was seen at 850bps in early trading.


- In the papers, the FT article noting that a political spat could cause the Germany's economic stimulus plan to be delayed. The article noted that the stimulus plan would not be submitted to the Cabinet this week due to a disagreement over whether to use tax cuts or public investment. The economics ministry is in favor of tax cuts, but the finance ministry favors investment. || The telegraph noted that duee to the recent drop in the GBP's value, France's economy is now larger than the UK's adding that the UK could be soon overtaken by Italy. The UK's economy is now the world's 6-largest in dollar terms. || According to a report, Japan's PM Aso said that the leader of North Korea is likely in the hospital

- Energy: OPEC Sec General reiterated that OPEC could hold another meeting before December if needed || Kuwait Oil Min noted that OPEC would act without hesitation if necessary to curb production. The miniter added that OPEC seeks balance between supply and demand || Libyan Oil Min: OPEC may need to cut output again at Dec meeting.


*** NOTES ***

The European market encountered mixed signals as the German bourses maintained a positive tone led by the surge in Volkswagen shares. VOW.GE surged above the EUR1,000/shr level making it the largest company in the world based upon market cap - bigger than Exxon [XOM]. Rumors came and went about the health of numerous European banks. There was chatter that several Euro Zone insurers might need capital. On the banking side, Standard chartered and Soc Gen issued positive outlooks. Dealer chatter circulated that the market seems poised for another round of easing after ECB's Trichet comments on Monday. The government bailout initiatives took a different turn as ta WSJ article noted that the US Dept of Energy could provide GM with $5B in loans. One dealer noted that it seems to be a bailout of a hedge funds if Chrysler took a similar proposal. The far east equity markets surge aided by Japanese tightening of short selling rules coupled with Pension fund buying of shares.


Looking Ahead:

- 7:00 (UK) CBI Oct Distributive Trades Report. There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was -27.

- 10:00 (US) Oct Consumer Confidence. Consensus expectations are 52 ; The prior number was 52.98.

- 10:00 (US) Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Consensus expectations are - 23 ; The prior number was -18.

- (GE) German Oct CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg. M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 0.0%. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 3.1%.

- (GE) Oct CPI - Brandenburg M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was -0.1%. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 2.8% .

- (GE) Oct CPI - Bavaria. M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number ; The prior number was -0.1%. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 3.0% .

- (GE) Oct CPI - Hesse M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 0.1% . Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 3.3%.

- (GE) Oct CPI - Saxony M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was -0.1% . Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 3.0%.



Supply

- 6:00 (IT) Italy to sell €2B 2010 zero coupon bonds

- 6:00 (SA) South Africa to sell ZAR750M 7.25% 2020 SAGB's

- 6:30 (UK) DMO to sell £1B 1.25% 2035 linkers

- 1:00 (US) Treasury to sell $34B 1.5% 10/2010 Notes



Speakers

- 8:00 (US) Former Fed Chairman Volcker to speak in

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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