- In equities, Honda Motors [HMC] Reported its Q2 Net Â¥123.3B compared to
estimates of Â¥131Be. The company lowered its Group FY Net Profit view to Â¥485B
from Â¥490B prior, Oper Profit view to Â¥550B v Â¥630B prior, Rev view to Â¥11.60T
v Â¥12.17Te . Honda revised its global FY car sales outlook to 4.02M units v
4.08M prior || British Petroleum [BP.UK] Reported Q3 Net $8.05B above estimates
of $7.02B. Revenues came in a bit below expectations with $104.8B versus
$107.65B seen by analysts. Q3 CAPEX $8.9B while total CAPEX for the first
9-months was$23.7B. Q3 Production 3.66M BOE/day v 3/8M BOE/day q/q. CEO noted
that oil prices could drop further due to a global recession. || Danske Bank
[DANSKE.DE] Reported Q3 Net DKK1.1B compared to DKK3.64B year ago with revenues
of DKK9.19B v DKK11.2B y/y. the bank lowered it FY08 outlook. || Tom Tom
[TOM2.NV] Reported Q3 Net Profit â‚¬58M in line with estimates of â‚¬58M but
revenues came in light with â‚¬429M below estimates of â‚¬475M. Tom Tom lowered its
FY08 sales outlook to â‚¬1.75B-â‚¬1.85B compared to consensus estimates of â‚¬1.93B
and EBITA margin in range of 20% to 24%. It expected to sell 12 to13M PND's in
FY08 below its prior view of 14-15M. Its Q3 Gross Margin came in at 56% v 51%
estimates with an ASP of â‚¬136 compared to expectations of â‚¬127e. It noted that
growing demand for navigation solutions despite weakening economy. Lastly the
company added that it successfully renegotiated loan conditions (debts and
covenants). || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] Huge short squeeze continues in firm
following the weekend announcement that Porsche plans to up its stake to 75%.
Shares opened 2008 and â‚¬151.35 and are now trading above â‚¬887.85, an increase
of â‚¬736.50. At its new share price, VOW replaces Nestle as Europe's
most valuable company by market cap. Stock continues to surge, up 90%.|| Aegon
[AGN.NV] Secured a â‚¬3.5B of core capital from Dutch State and Guided its Q3 Net
loss â‚¬350M, adding that it would not distribute final dividend. The core
capital was secured from the DutchState
via its largest shareholder, Vereniging AEGON. it will issue 750M non-voting
securities at â‚¬4/shr to Vereniging AEGON. ||USG People [USG.NV] Reported Q3 Net
â‚¬32.7M below estimates of â‚¬35.6Me. its Rev â‚¬1.07B was in line ith consensus
esti ates of â‚¬1.06B. The company noted it would implement staff
cuts and added that its short term outlook in Europe
continued to deteriorate. It stated that it would experience a rapid drop in
Spanish and French staffing and focus remained
on cutting costs || Biomerieux [BIM.FR: Reports 9-month Rev â‚¬799.3M, +7.4% y/y
(at constant exchange rates), Maintains FY08 targets inline with prior
expectations || TeliaSonera [TLSN.SW] Reports Q3 Net SEK4.77B v SEK4.90Be, Rev
SEK25.8B v 25.8Be. it maintained their FY08 outlook as sales have remain
stable. . || Publicis [PUB.FR] Reports Q3 Rev â‚¬1.11B v â‚¬1.12B y/y || Nomura
[8604.JP] Reported Q2 Net Loss Â¥72.9B larger than the loss Â¥9.0B consensus
estimates. Revenues were Â¥357.7B compared to Â¥420.7B y/y. || European bourses
opened higher following late Asian rally. DAX opened +4.17% trading at 4512.22,
CAC opened +2.17% trading at 3130.25, and the FTSE opened +2.67% trading at
3852.59. The DAX continues to outperform driven by the extraordinary trading
taking place within VOW.GE. The FTSE remains positive up +20.9%. The CAC is off
session lows and flirting with the unchanged mark down now only -0.04% from
-1.25%. On the CAC, [BPN.FR] -6.17% is the leading lager on continued rumors of
write downs and residual effects of the credit crisis
- In speakers, Norges Bank stated that commercial banks expect further
tightening of credit during Q4 citing the current funding situation and the
economic outlook. || German Bafin Regulator stated that they are currently
analyzing VOW.GE trading after the surges surged above the EUR1,000/shr level.
This made Volkswagen the largest company in the world based upon market cap. ||
German Fin Min: European Commission approves German Bank Bailout Fund.
- In currencies: The currency price action took its signal from the closing
hour of Japanese trading. The carry-related pairs gained momentum as risk
appetite for equities increased during the final hour Nikkei trading. EUR/JPY
surged to 120.50 from lows of 114.40 area. USD/JPY probed towards the 96
neighborhood before retreating to 94.70 area. Dealers noting that some 'risk
appetite' returned to market aided by Japanese Pension Funds buying shares. The
rapid JPY weakness prompted unconfirmed rumors that the BOJ was 'intervening'
in the currency markets. || Belgium bank Dexia [DEXB.BE] Noted that its Slovakia
unit was impacted by currency exposure and the parent would book â‚¬82M charge
- In fixed income, pressure in the government bond markets was seen across the
board as money flowed back into equities. The UK
gilt curve was relatively unchanged in terms of shape, but slightly better
selling of the 10-year T-Note saw the US
yield curve steeper ahead of today's 2y T-note tap (the first supply to support
TARP). Bear steepening was also seen in Germany;
with the benchmark 10y Bund yielding 3.82%, an increase of 5.4bps. The Dec Bund
future has reversed most of last week's gains, trading as low as 116.28, down
83 ticks on yesterday's close. Dealers noted the spread between the benchmark
10y Bund and 10year T-note had settled around +2bps, its highest level in 11
years. The iTraxx crossover index narrowed from yesterday all time high, and
was seen at 850bps in early trading.
- In the papers, the FT article noting that a political spat could cause the Germany's
economic stimulus plan to be delayed. The article noted that the stimulus plan
would not be submitted to the Cabinet this week due to a disagreement over
whether to use tax cuts or public investment. The economics ministry is in
favor of tax cuts, but the finance ministry favors investment. || The telegraph
noted that duee to the recent drop in the GBP's value, France's
economy is now larger than the UK's
adding that the UK
could be soon overtaken by Italy.
economy is now the world's 6-largest in dollar terms. || According to a report,
Japan's PM Aso
said that the leader of North Korea
is likely in the hospital
- Energy: OPEC Sec General reiterated that OPEC could hold another meeting
before December if needed || Kuwait Oil Min noted that OPEC would act without
hesitation if necessary to curb production. The miniter added that OPEC seeks
balance between supply and demand || Libyan Oil Min: OPEC may need to cut
output again at Dec meeting.
*** NOTES ***
The European market encountered mixed signals as the German bourses maintained
a positive tone led by the surge in Volkswagen shares. VOW.GE surged above the
EUR1,000/shr level making it the largest company in the world based upon market
cap - bigger than Exxon [XOM]. Rumors came and went about the health of
numerous European banks. There was chatter that several Euro Zone insurers
might need capital. On the banking side, Standard chartered and Soc Gen issued
positive outlooks. Dealer chatter circulated that the market seems poised for
another round of easing after ECB's Trichet comments on Monday. The government
bailout initiatives took a different turn as ta WSJ article noted that the US
Dept of Energy could provide GM with $5B in loans. One dealer noted that it
seems to be a bailout of a hedge funds if Chrysler took a similar proposal. The
far east equity markets surge aided by Japanese tightening of short selling
rules coupled with Pension fund buying of shares.
CBI Oct Distributive Trades Report. There are no consensus expectations for
this number; The prior number was -27.
- 10:00 (US)
Oct Consumer Confidence. Consensus expectations are 52 ; The prior number was
- 10:00 (US)
Oct Richmond Fed Manufacturing
Index. Consensus expectations are - 23 ; The prior number was -18.
- (GE) German Oct CPI - Baden Wuerttemberg. M/M there
are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 0.0%. Y/Y
there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 3.1%.
- (GE) Oct CPI - Brandenburg M/M there are no consensus expectations for this
number; The prior number was -0.1%. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for
this number; The prior number was 2.8% .
- (GE) Oct CPI - Bavaria. M/M
there are no consensus expectations for this number ; The prior number was
-0.1%. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior
number was 3.0% .
- (GE) Oct CPI - Hesse M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number;
The prior number was 0.1% . Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this
number; The prior number was 3.3%.
- (GE) Oct CPI - Saxony M/M there are no consensus expectations for this
number; The prior number was -0.1% . Y/Y there are no consensus expectations
for this number; The prior number was 3.0%.
- (IT) Italy
to sell â‚¬2B 2010 zero coupon bonds
- 6:00 (SA) South Africa
to sell ZAR750M 7.25% 2020 SAGB's
DMO to sell Â£1B 1.25% 2035 linkers
- 1:00 (US)
Treasury to sell $34B 1.5% 10/2010 Notes
- 8:00 (US)
Former Fed Chairman Volcker to speak in
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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