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Wednesday October 29, 2008 - 10:04:45 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: Markets await FOMC decison; BOJ rate cut speculation circulating

Today 05:59am

European market Update: Markets await FOMC decison; BOJ rate cut speculation circulating


- (GE) Oct CPI - Saxony M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.0% prior

-(GE) Oct CPI - Brandenburg M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.8% prior

- (GE) Oct CPI - Hesse M/M: -0.7% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.0% v 3.3% prior

- (SP) Spanish Aug House Transactions Y/Y: -36.8% v -26.3% prior

- (SP) Spanish Aug Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -37.20% v -28.70%. prior

- (SP ) Spanish Aug Mortgages on Capital Loaned Y/Y: -38.10% v -28.60% prior

- (SW) Swedish Oct Consumer Confidence: -24.7 v -17.2e; Economic Tendency Survey: 78.8 v 86 prior;

- (SW) Swedish Q3 Manufacturing Confidence: -19.0 v -14.0e

- (NO) Norwegian Aug Unemployment Rate: 2.4% v 2.5%e

- (UK) Sept Final M4 Money Supply M/M: 1.5% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 12.4% v 12.2% prior

- (UK) Sept Net Consumer Credit: 0.3B£ v £1Be (weakest since Feb 1994); Net Lending £2.2B v £0. 8Be

- (UK) Sept Mortgage Approvals: 33K v 32ke


- In equities: Sony [SNE} Reported H1 Net ¥55.8B v ¥69.92Be; Oper Profit ¥84.5B v ¥91.44Be; maintains FY Group Net Profit guidance at ¥150B v ¥158Be Its Q2 Group Net Profit ¥20.8B v ¥25.1Be|| Bayer [BAY.GE] Reported Q3 Net €277M below estimates of €283M. Its Revenues came in at €7.95B versus €7.77b estimate. Bayer stated that it saw difficult environment in Q4|| Bayer [BAY.GE] Reported Q3 Net €277M versus estimates of €283M. its revenues came in at €7.95B above the consensus of €7.77B. However, the company noted that it saw a difficult environment in Q4 || Telnor [TEL.NO] Reported Q3 Pretax NOK4.43B v 5.18Be; Rev NOK23.8B v NOK23.6Be. It maintains FY08 outlook and added 6M subscriptions in mobile operations in Q3. Now sees growing shares of revenues and profit from outside Norway || Volkswagen [VOW.GE] VOW.GE: Porsche confirms to continue buying shares in company, maintains committed to purchasing 75% stake and noted that additional purchases would be made both on and off exchange. Porsche noted that German regulator Bafin was informed in advance || Volkswagen {VOW.GE] Deutsche Bourse confirmed 10 % cap rule to be applied, as a result weightings of DAX constituents to change|| Luftansa [LHA.GE] Reported Q3 Net €149M below the consensus estimates of €350M. Revenues were €6.54B versus ¥6.62B estimates. The company guided it FY Net lower y/y, Rev higher y/y || Syngenta [SYNN.SZ] Acquired Chrysanthemum and Aster Business from Yoder Brothers || UCB [UCB.BE] UCB.BE: Vimpat received FDA approval as adjunctive therapy for partial onset seizures in adults || Suez Environment [SEV.FR] Reported 9-month EBITDA €1.55B v €1.54Be; Rev €9.12B v €9.10Be, Reaffirms FY08 targets and added that it remained confident in medium-term outlook. The CEO says company was "Little Exposed" to macroeconomic woes. || Akzo Nobel [AKZA.NV] Reported Q3 Adj Net €219M v €258M y/y, Rev €3.82B v €3.72B y/y, Reaffirms FY08 outlook, maintain dividend at prior levels. CFO noted that it was “clear that global economic conditions are deteriorating and that forward visibility is therefore limited,' and added that at this stage, the potential severity of the economic cycle is unclear.'' || Balda [BAD.GE] Reported Q3 EBIT - €5M v + €8M y/y, Rev €103.9M v €66.4M y/y. the company noted that it is unable to meet it sFY08 revenue and , income targets, citing that its Brazilian markets may have permanently deteriorated || Tesco [TSCO.UK] Reportedly to lower its UK sales growth estimates to 2% v prior view of 3% to 4% || [BBVA.SP] Reported Q3 Net €1.39B above the €1.30B estimates while its 9-month Net came in at €4.32B compared to €4.4B consensus. Tier 1 capital ratio was at 7.8%. Loan arrears ratio 1.54% v 0.88% y/y

- Speakers: ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo stated that Euro-zone was facing several quarters of slower than expected economic growth and that the magnitude slowdown has yet to be seen. Noted that the ECB was only providing liquidity to solvent banks and that such bank bailouts could not be the be long term solution. Reiterated the view that the ECB seeks price stability and that it had acted in line with its mandate at every moment. Lastly recent moves have help repair monetary policy transmission || (CH) Chinese FX regulator SAFE reports June Current Account Surplus $191.7B; up 18% y/y. It noted that global financial market crisis had added uncertainty to international payments || South Korea Govt Spokesperson Kim stated that South Korea has not yet been approached by IMF

- In Currencies: The USD is softer against the majors (EUR, GBP, CHF and JPY) in response to the interest rate cut expectations at the FOMC later today. Also some technical factors causing some medium term macro players to cover recent positions in USD and carry-related pairs. Dealers noting that 'good appetite in AUD pairs via options Indonesia Central Bank Dep Gov stated that the country was short of USD liquidity; urges state companies to repatriate dollars.

-In Fixed Income: Better buying in the short end JGB's was attributed to the possibility of an ex-meeting BoJ rate cut after today's FOMC rate decision, leading to a sharply steeper Japanese yield curve. The 2y was down 10.5bps bps to yield 0.55%. the 10y down 3bps to 1.49%

US treasuries were rallying across the board ahead of the FOMC rate decision. The Oct Fed fund future was pricing in an 54% chance of a 50bps cut.

Despite some selling of the Benchmark 10y Bund ( up 1.5bps to yield 3.77%) EUR peripherals continue to lag . The Italian 10yr BPTS is yielding 4.78%, and the Greek 10yr at 5.08%, spreads of101bs and 131bps wider respectively. Dealers noted the German Schatz/Bund spread reached its widest level since March 2005 - 124bps.

Dealers note that spread between German 2-year and 10-year at 124bps, widest since Mar 2005

- Credit Crisis: SNB: Further relaxes money market restrictions, to release 3-month swap conditions later in the morning and would supply 'very generous' levels of liquidity || Russia allowed Alfa Group to tap its $50B rescue fund - WSJ || Italy's government is mulling various proposals to help local banks according to its local press. Among the measures being mulled by the gov't include having the Bank of Italy stage direct interventions in the country's banks. || Hypo Real estate [HRX.GE] Applied for €15B in Financial market stability fund on Oct 28th; to make further applications to SOFFIN. Depra bank in talks for €50B in liquidity lines. || Middle Eastern Central Banks reiterates that their domestic banks remain highly liquid. Saudi Central banker noted that local banks remain 'highly liquid' and do not face any liquidity issues. Qatar central bank says local banks are 'solid' and remain 'well-capitalized'

*** NOTES ***

- Global equity markets maintain their euphoria on central bank rate cut optimism. Chatter circulating that the BOJ could cut by 25bps. Some market participants calling for 75bps at today's FOMC following the US Oct consumer confidence data reading of 38.0, the lowest level on record.. The Niikei 225 was up 7.8%, but the S. Korea Kospi saw its 8% gains evaporate and closed down 3%. The volatility in the currency markets continues to bewilder participants as rate cut fever kicks in. As year-end funding needs arise interesting to see Indonesia comment about its USD liquidity shortage and asking State companies to repatriate funds home China planed to delay the launch of short selling and margin lending due to concerns about market conditions. These were suppose to begin in Nov. Dealers taking note of the notable large jump in commercial paper issuance on Tuesday

Looking Ahead: FOMC decision will be the focus. Durable Goods orders and weekly energy inventories are also due today.

- 7:00 (GE) Oct CPI - Bavaria. M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was-0.1% . Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 3.0%.

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 24. there are no consensus expectations; The prior number was -16.6%

- 8:30 (US) Sept Durable Goods Orders. Consensus expectations are -1.1%; The prior number was -4.8%

- 8:30 (US) Sept Durables Ex Transportation. Consensus expectations are -1.5% ; The prior number was -3.3%

- 9:00 (NO) Norwegian Deposit Rates. Consensus expectations are for a 50 bps cut. Current deposit rate is 5.25%

- 14:15 (US) FOMC Rate Decision. Consensus expectations are for a 50bps cut. Current base rate is 1.00%

- ( PD) Poland Base Rate Announcement. Consensus expectations are for no change; The current base rate is 6.00%

- (GE) German Oct CPI. M/M consensus expectations are -0.2%; The prior number was -0.1% . Y/Y Consensus expectations are 2.4%; The prior number was 2.9%.

- (GE) German Oct CPI - CPI EU Harmonized. M/M consensus expectations are -0.2% ; The prior number was -0.1%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 2.6% ; The prior number was 3.0%.

- (GE) Oct CPI - Bavaria. M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number ; The prior number was -0.1%. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 3.0% .

- (GE) Oct CPI - Saxony M/M there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was -0.1% . Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 3.0%.



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