Friday December 10, 2004 - 01:38:41 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 10th December 2004 Price: ... 104.71
Resistance: 105.00 ... 105.37 ... 105.55 ... 105.78
Support....: 104.45 ... 104.22 ... 103.85 ... 103.40
Mixed but possibly with a bullish preference for 105.37-105.60 before a pullback
As suggested the first move higher tested the 104.95 level once again but with the pullback brief we feel there is room for further gains today. The first move may well stall at 104.98 and if so, then we'd look for a small pullback to 104.60 before a move to the 105.37 level which should stall and cause a sharper move back lower once again. Should price move above 105.00 directly then we should see it stall around 105.50-60. We tend to prefer the first of these two alternatives. Only a move above 105.60 would allow gains to extend through to 106.52-76.
The immediate prospect for a bearish stance looks limited and thus we prefer to wait for the next move to materialize. Referring to the bullish view above we feel that a good selling opportunity will occur on a test of 105.37 - but stops should be placed above 105.60. A peak at 105.35 would imply losses back down to 104.22 initially but then back down to the 103.83 area once again. Any decline from 105.50-60 would probably stall around 104.70-80.
Elliott Wave Comments:
December 9th 2004
With the break above 103.69 we feel a larger correction to the decline from 111.71 to 101.82 is under way. Although it has completed an ABC pattern to 104.95 and thus could have completed the correction, in terms of a Fibonacci level we feel this is unlikely to have finished Wave [iv]. This would imply a Double Zig-Zag at least which could move to Fibonacci targets at 105.60 (38.2%) and we would expect 106.76 (50%) which would imply completion around the first low after 114.85 which was at 106.99.
December 10th 2004
We look at the current consolidation as a possible complex correction between 103.50 and 105.37 - this higher level representing a 38.2% expanded flat correction. If this is correct, then expect a second test of 103.50-83 before a second ABC rally to 106.76. Any direct move above 105.50-60 would imply the ABC pattern is underway and should reach its target earlier.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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