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Friday December 10, 2004 - 11:23:01 GMT
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FOREX: US OPEN MARKET POINTS 12-10-04

Euro Takes a Dive

Yesterday in late US session all the majors rose against the dollar after the disappointing results of the 10 year Treasury auction. Although the auction drew a respectable 2.68 bid to cover ratio, it generated only 10% of offers from foreign investors and Central Banks indicating that global demand for US capital assets may be waning. The dealers reacted badly to the news and the pound made a vertical move up of nearly 150 points to 1.9300 in very thin late afternoon trading.

Tonight, however, the price action completely reversed itself with dollar shorts continuing to cover positions and book profits for the year end. Dollar bulls also received some support from the mildly negative eco data from France, Euro-zone’s 2nd largest economy, which reported declines in Industrial and Manufacturing Production of –0.7% as the rising euro and high unemployment dampened demand. The French numbers stand in contrast to yesterday’s positive data from Germany, which reported a rise in production despite the strong euro and suggest that French manufacturers may not have been as well hedged. In addition to the French data, the Euro-zone Current Account printed at €5.8 Billion – the smallest surplus in a year - which exacerbated the euro sell- off and pushed it below the week’s low of 3180.

Today’s PPI data from US may push the euro lower still if the release prints materially higher than expectations. Such news would practically assure a Fed rate hike at next Tuesday’s FOMC meeting as the year over year PPI index would then stand at 4.7% or higher. Originally, we thought the Fed may hold off raising rates during the Christmas season (Chairman Greenspan has never enacted a rate hike in December during his tenure) but last months euro rally, yesterdays lackluster Treasury auction participation from foreign investors and strong evidence of escalating inflation may prompt the Fed to break tradition.

The euro, of course, can trade all the way down to 1.30 and still maintain it’s uptrend. As we noted yesterday the likeliest near term scenario is consolidation for the pair within a very wide 1.30-1.35 range as traders digest the recent power move up and focus on a slew of important US economic data due next week.


FX Spot Overnight

- EUR trades through the week’s lows as profit taking accelerates
- JPY blows through 106 as sentiment turns
- GBP nearly touches 9000 handle in the downdraft
- CHF blasts through 1650 despite good Retail Sales data

Upcoming Events

- 11:00GMT – (7:00 AM EST) GBP Euro-zone OECD Leading Ind. (OCT) Expected 4.75%, Previous 4.75%

- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (3Q) Expected 85%, Previous 84.6%
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) CAD Labor Productivity q/q (3Q) Expected 0.0%, Previous 1.5%
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Producer Price Index m/m (NOV) Expected 0.1%, Previous 1.7%
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD PPI Ex Food & Energy m/m (NOV) Expected 0.2%, Previous 1.7%
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD Producer Price Index y/y (NOV) Expected 4.7%, Previous 4.4%
- 13:30GMT – (8:30 AM EST) USD PPI Ex Food & Energy y/y (NOV) Expected 1.9%, Previous 1.8%
- 14:45GMT – (9:45 AM EST) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (DEC P) Expected 93.5, Previous 92.8
- 19:00GMT – (2:00 PM EST) USD Monthly Budget Statement (NOV) Expected -$54.1B, Previous -$57.3B

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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