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Friday October 31, 2008 - 11:29:16 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Weak German Retail Sales; Cautious comments from BOJ prompts renewed round of global growth concerns

Today 06:42am

European Market Update: Weak German Retail Sales; Cautious comments from BOJ prompts renewed round of global growth concerns


- (GE) German Retail Sales M/M: -2.3% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 3.0% prior

- 4:30 (SP) Spanish Aug Current Account: -€6.9B v- -€7.4B

- 5:00 (IT) Italian Sept PPI M/M: % v -0.1%e; Y/Y: % v 7.6%e

- 5:00 (NO) Norwegian Sept Credit Growth Indicator: 12.0% v 12.0%e

- 6:00 (IT) Italian Oct CPI incl tobacco M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.5%e

- 6:00 (IT) Italian Oct CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e

- 6:00 (EU) Oct Euro-Zone CPI Estimate Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e;

- 6:00 (EU) Oct Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%


- In equities: Barclays [BARC.UK] Confirmed press speculation and announced a £7.3B capital increase. , £4.3B in mandatorily convertible notes || BT Group [BT.UK} issued mixed guidance for Q2 with revenues ahead of expectations but added that EBITA and EPS would come in below forecasts || Sanofi-Aventis [SAN.FR] Reported Q3 Net of €1.92B above estimates of €1.81B. Its revenues came in at €6.85B just below expectations of €6.91B. It raised its 2008 EPS ex-items forecast to around 9% verus its prior view of 8%.Q3 Plavix sales €630M v €637.5Me Q3 Lovenox Sales €635M v €655Me. It would discontinue development of ave2268 for diabetes and stop development of surinabant for smoking cessation || Atos Origin [ATO.FR] Reported Q3 Rev €1.34B compared to year-ago levels of €1.42B; confirms FY08 Rev targets, sales to grow >5% y/y - Order book up 10% in Sept y/y || Thales [HO.FR] Reported Q3 Revenue €2.643B versus €2.60B y/y, Reaffirmed its FY08 organic growth guidance of 6%| Eni [ENI.IT] Reported Q3 Net of €2.89B versus estimates of €2.42B and Op Profit €6.2B against €5.8B estimates. It Reaffirmed FY08 outlook || Commerzbank [CBK.GE] Reportedly interested in German capital injection || Centrica [CAN.UK] Anounced a 3 for 8 rights issue priced at 160p/shr to raise £2.2B. It stated that it had no plans to sell specific units and that the rights issue had good support from shareholder base

- Speakers: BoJ Gov Shirakawa noted that today's policy decision to cut interest rates by 20bps to 0.30% had some debate. 7 of 8 members called for rate cut with 3 of those member called for a larger cut the 20bps. 1 member called for keeping rates on hold. The BOJ chief added that a larger rate cut could have impacted money market functions. All BOJ members agreed that theJapanese economy was in a serious condition. Lastly he noted there was no political pressure to cut rates but that tension in global financial markets had impacted Japan's markets in recent weeks. It would be improper to comment how BoJ rate cut could affect FX and was considering whether it is necessary to acquire bank-held stocks ||The BOJ released its semi-annual economic outlook and noted that it must watch the risks of an accommodative policy. It added that Japan would implement policy appropriately. It saw 2009 GDP at 0.6% and renewed growth taking shape by 2010 with a GDP Forecast 1.7%. The core CPI median forecast: 0.0% v 1.1% in July report and 2010 core CPI forecast: 0.3%. The report noted that Japanese economy had become sluggish and that CAPEX would remain weak, while uncertainty was increasing, corporate earnings to be severe. The global economy was unlikely to recover before mid 2009 and that the financial market crisis in US and Europe impacted Japanese downside risks and such uncertainty over economic views are increasing || ECB Quaden noted that Belgian GDP will most likely be zero than 1% but added that he did not expect an economic depression like that experienced back in 1930's because central banks acted faster and better. Expects inflation to decline further|| ECB's Bini Smaghi sees possibility for a rate cut; says cutting rates is in line with strategy || Japan Fin Min Nakagawa stated that the BoJ rate cut was the correct decision both domestically and internationally || Czech Central Bank Singer stated that the Czech economy would slow sharply and that inflation could decline in coming months || CB's Bini Smaghi stated that the EU is facing a crisis thanks to the strong euro, but non Euro Zone European countries are suffering even more. Eastern European countries are asking for help from ECB.Euro weakness not a sign of dimming appeal and added that recent gains of the USD and JPY against the euro are viewed as temporary

- In Currencies: BOJ cut rates as expected earlier today, but dealers noting that the decision was not unanimous vote. Nikkei dropped by 5% and the JPY firmed on the ensuing risk aversion. USD remains closely tied to the performance of share markets. Again dealers noting that a falling equity prices are usually seen as a USD and JPY positive. The 2-year U.S-German spread narrowed to 89bps from 97bps yesterday.

-In Fixed Income: The German yield curve steepened, with money flowing into the front end of the curve, the Schatz ( 2.42%, - 6bps ) and the Bobl ( 3.07%, -4bps) both yielding lower, whilst the Bund at 3.77% is relatively unchanged on the session. EUR peripherals were still under pressure, with the Italian 10yr BTP at 5.03% yielding 126bps over the Bund. The Dec Euribor future was trading at 96.37, up 5 ticks. Gilts are still being bought across the board , with a continued steepining bias in the curve. The 2y 10y spread was at fresh 1 yr highs of 151bps

- Commodity: Reportedly Nigeria lowered Nov-Dec oil export figures by 5%, in line with recent OPEC production cut || UBS Analyst lowered its2009 metals forecast with Copper $1.30/lb, - 48% prior forecast; Iron Ore -40% prior forecast and Gold $700/os -15% prior forecasts

*** NOTES ***

- It was a "red" October for the global equity markets. The Nikkei ended the month 24% lower, it largest monthly drop ever. Risk aversion reappeared in the market after the BoJ disappointed the market with a 20bps rate instead of the suggested 25bps. For the first time in 14 policy meeting the BOJ vote was not unanimous but tied at 4 to 4 with Gov Shirakawa casting the tie breaker. Concerns over the global growth outlook continue to ferment. BOJ noted that its prospects were worsening. German Sept retails sales were weak. Dealers noting that 'stress' inside Europe are building as evident by the spread on numerous government spread as the EU-Italian spread continues to widen. German union IG Metal preparing for possible strikes that would begin the second week of November. ECB members continue to note that a rate cut is possible, but would not 'pre-commit'. Barclays confirmed its capital raise. Intel [ INTC] stated that it saw follow-on effects from credit crisis in product delays and product delays due insolvency of key suppliers

Looking Ahead:

- Key US earnings before the open on Friday include Chevron [CVX], Burger King {BKC], KBR, Weyerhauser [WY]

- 8:30 (CA) Aug Gross Domestic Product . M/M Consensus expectations are -0.4% ; The prior number was 0.7%

- 8:30 (US) Sept Personal Income. Consensus expectations are 0.1% ; The prior number was 0.5%

- 8:30 (US) Sept PCE Deflator Y/Y. Consensus expectations are 4.2%; The prior number was 4.5%

- 8:30 (US) Sept Personal Spending. Consensus expectations are -0.2%; The prior number was 0.0%

- 8:30 (US) Sept PCE Core. M/M consensus expectations are 0.1%; The prior number was 0.2%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 2.4%; The prior number was 2.6%.

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Employment Cost Index. Consensus expectations are 0.7%; The prior number was 0.7%

- 9:00 (US) Aug RPX Composite 28dy Index. There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 224.28. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was -17.76%.

- 9:45 (US) Oct Chicago Purchasing Manager Index. Consensus expectations are 48; The prior number was 56.7

- 10:00 (BE) Belgian Q3 CPI. Q/Q there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 0.2%. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 1.9%.

- 10:00 (US) Oct Final University of Michigan Confidence Index. Consensus expectations are 57.5; The prior number was 57.5

- 10:00 (US) Oct NAPM -Milwaukee. There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 46.0.

- 14:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke to speak in California


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