User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday October 31, 2008 - 11:29:16 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.global-view.com/forex-services/TTN/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - European Market Update: Weak German Retail Sales; Cautious comments from BOJ prompts renewed round of global growth concerns

Today 06:42am

European Market Update: Weak German Retail Sales; Cautious comments from BOJ prompts renewed round of global growth concerns

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (GE) German Retail Sales M/M: -2.3% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 3.0% prior

- 4:30 (SP) Spanish Aug Current Account: -€6.9B v- -€7.4B

- 5:00 (IT) Italian Sept PPI M/M: % v -0.1%e; Y/Y: % v 7.6%e

- 5:00 (NO) Norwegian Sept Credit Growth Indicator: 12.0% v 12.0%e

- 6:00 (IT) Italian Oct CPI incl tobacco M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.5%e

- 6:00 (IT) Italian Oct CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e

- 6:00 (EU) Oct Euro-Zone CPI Estimate Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e;

- 6:00 (EU) Oct Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.5%

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: Barclays [BARC.UK] Confirmed press speculation and announced a £7.3B capital increase. , £4.3B in mandatorily convertible notes || BT Group [BT.UK} issued mixed guidance for Q2 with revenues ahead of expectations but added that EBITA and EPS would come in below forecasts || Sanofi-Aventis [SAN.FR] Reported Q3 Net of €1.92B above estimates of €1.81B. Its revenues came in at €6.85B just below expectations of €6.91B. It raised its 2008 EPS ex-items forecast to around 9% verus its prior view of 8%.Q3 Plavix sales €630M v €637.5Me Q3 Lovenox Sales €635M v €655Me. It would discontinue development of ave2268 for diabetes and stop development of surinabant for smoking cessation || Atos Origin [ATO.FR] Reported Q3 Rev €1.34B compared to year-ago levels of €1.42B; confirms FY08 Rev targets, sales to grow >5% y/y - Order book up 10% in Sept y/y || Thales [HO.FR] Reported Q3 Revenue €2.643B versus €2.60B y/y, Reaffirmed its FY08 organic growth guidance of 6%| Eni [ENI.IT] Reported Q3 Net of €2.89B versus estimates of €2.42B and Op Profit €6.2B against €5.8B estimates. It Reaffirmed FY08 outlook || Commerzbank [CBK.GE] Reportedly interested in German capital injection || Centrica [CAN.UK] Anounced a 3 for 8 rights issue priced at 160p/shr to raise £2.2B. It stated that it had no plans to sell specific units and that the rights issue had good support from shareholder base

- Speakers: BoJ Gov Shirakawa noted that today's policy decision to cut interest rates by 20bps to 0.30% had some debate. 7 of 8 members called for rate cut with 3 of those member called for a larger cut the 20bps. 1 member called for keeping rates on hold. The BOJ chief added that a larger rate cut could have impacted money market functions. All BOJ members agreed that theJapanese economy was in a serious condition. Lastly he noted there was no political pressure to cut rates but that tension in global financial markets had impacted Japan's markets in recent weeks. It would be improper to comment how BoJ rate cut could affect FX and was considering whether it is necessary to acquire bank-held stocks ||The BOJ released its semi-annual economic outlook and noted that it must watch the risks of an accommodative policy. It added that Japan would implement policy appropriately. It saw 2009 GDP at 0.6% and renewed growth taking shape by 2010 with a GDP Forecast 1.7%. The core CPI median forecast: 0.0% v 1.1% in July report and 2010 core CPI forecast: 0.3%. The report noted that Japanese economy had become sluggish and that CAPEX would remain weak, while uncertainty was increasing, corporate earnings to be severe. The global economy was unlikely to recover before mid 2009 and that the financial market crisis in US and Europe impacted Japanese downside risks and such uncertainty over economic views are increasing || ECB Quaden noted that Belgian GDP will most likely be zero than 1% but added that he did not expect an economic depression like that experienced back in 1930's because central banks acted faster and better. Expects inflation to decline further|| ECB's Bini Smaghi sees possibility for a rate cut; says cutting rates is in line with strategy || Japan Fin Min Nakagawa stated that the BoJ rate cut was the correct decision both domestically and internationally || Czech Central Bank Singer stated that the Czech economy would slow sharply and that inflation could decline in coming months || CB's Bini Smaghi stated that the EU is facing a crisis thanks to the strong euro, but non Euro Zone European countries are suffering even more. Eastern European countries are asking for help from ECB.Euro weakness not a sign of dimming appeal and added that recent gains of the USD and JPY against the euro are viewed as temporary

- In Currencies: BOJ cut rates as expected earlier today, but dealers noting that the decision was not unanimous vote. Nikkei dropped by 5% and the JPY firmed on the ensuing risk aversion. USD remains closely tied to the performance of share markets. Again dealers noting that a falling equity prices are usually seen as a USD and JPY positive. The 2-year U.S-German spread narrowed to 89bps from 97bps yesterday.

-In Fixed Income: The German yield curve steepened, with money flowing into the front end of the curve, the Schatz ( 2.42%, - 6bps ) and the Bobl ( 3.07%, -4bps) both yielding lower, whilst the Bund at 3.77% is relatively unchanged on the session. EUR peripherals were still under pressure, with the Italian 10yr BTP at 5.03% yielding 126bps over the Bund. The Dec Euribor future was trading at 96.37, up 5 ticks. Gilts are still being bought across the board , with a continued steepining bias in the curve. The 2y 10y spread was at fresh 1 yr highs of 151bps

- Commodity: Reportedly Nigeria lowered Nov-Dec oil export figures by 5%, in line with recent OPEC production cut || UBS Analyst lowered its2009 metals forecast with Copper $1.30/lb, - 48% prior forecast; Iron Ore -40% prior forecast and Gold $700/os -15% prior forecasts

*** NOTES ***

- It was a "red" October for the global equity markets. The Nikkei ended the month 24% lower, it largest monthly drop ever. Risk aversion reappeared in the market after the BoJ disappointed the market with a 20bps rate instead of the suggested 25bps. For the first time in 14 policy meeting the BOJ vote was not unanimous but tied at 4 to 4 with Gov Shirakawa casting the tie breaker. Concerns over the global growth outlook continue to ferment. BOJ noted that its prospects were worsening. German Sept retails sales were weak. Dealers noting that 'stress' inside Europe are building as evident by the spread on numerous government spread as the EU-Italian spread continues to widen. German union IG Metal preparing for possible strikes that would begin the second week of November. ECB members continue to note that a rate cut is possible, but would not 'pre-commit'. Barclays confirmed its capital raise. Intel [ INTC] stated that it saw follow-on effects from credit crisis in product delays and product delays due insolvency of key suppliers

Looking Ahead:

- Key US earnings before the open on Friday include Chevron [CVX], Burger King {BKC], KBR, Weyerhauser [WY]

- 8:30 (CA) Aug Gross Domestic Product . M/M Consensus expectations are -0.4% ; The prior number was 0.7%

- 8:30 (US) Sept Personal Income. Consensus expectations are 0.1% ; The prior number was 0.5%

- 8:30 (US) Sept PCE Deflator Y/Y. Consensus expectations are 4.2%; The prior number was 4.5%

- 8:30 (US) Sept Personal Spending. Consensus expectations are -0.2%; The prior number was 0.0%

- 8:30 (US) Sept PCE Core. M/M consensus expectations are 0.1%; The prior number was 0.2%. Y/Y Consensus expectations are 2.4%; The prior number was 2.6%.

- 8:30 (US) Q3 Employment Cost Index. Consensus expectations are 0.7%; The prior number was 0.7%

- 9:00 (US) Aug RPX Composite 28dy Index. There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 224.28. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was -17.76%.

- 9:45 (US) Oct Chicago Purchasing Manager Index. Consensus expectations are 48; The prior number was 56.7

- 10:00 (BE) Belgian Q3 CPI. Q/Q there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 0.2%. Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 1.9%.

- 10:00 (US) Oct Final University of Michigan Confidence Index. Consensus expectations are 57.5; The prior number was 57.5

- 10:00 (US) Oct NAPM -Milwaukee. There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 46.0.

- 14:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke to speak in California

 

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 16 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105