- Indices headed marginally higher in early trading this morning as investors
digest a slew of mixed economic data. The Commerce Dept reported that personal
spending made its biggest monthly decline since June, 2004. The October Chicago
Purchasing Manager hit lows not seen since May, 2001, with the prices paid and
new orders components coming in very weak. Crude is hovering below $65, while
commodities remain weak. The fed fund futures show the probability of another
50bps rate cut by end of 2008 has risen to 92% from 68% yesterday.
- Repeating the pattern widely seen among the major oil companies this quarter,
Dow component CVX beat analysts' EPS projections by a wide margin. Mid-level
oil company CHK came in a hair under both earnings and revenue targets Note
that earlier this week the Wall Street Journal held CHK up as an example of a
smaller oil company that may be faring worse in the current crisis compared to
the oil majors due to the fact that larger companies are less reliant on credit
markets and have bigger cash positions than smaller energy firms. Both CVX and
CHK are under water this morning. Investors are dumping ERTS-16% after
reporting its second consecutive quarterly loss and guiding below targets
yesterday after the close. Citi subsequently cut its price target for the game
maker. Weyerhaeuser was down as much as 6% in early trading before spiking up
+2% after reporting a small profit versus expectations of a loss in the quarter.
The timber company expressed uncertainty about the upcoming quarter due to
continued weakness in housing. BKC+4% is making steady gains after reporting
more or less in line with expectations and reaffirming its guidance for the
full year. CLX+2.5% is holding steady after an unremarkable quarterly report.
Auto parts suppliers CMI and AXL are not having an easy time. CMI-10% missed on
earnings and revenue by a bit and cut its revenue guidance for the year
slightly. AXL-17% fared much worse, reporting a huge loss for the quarter.
- Speaking of the auto industry, overnight the Detroit Free Press reported that
the Treasury has ended talks with US automakers to provide them with financial
assistance, citing an unnamed Bush administration official. The article notes
that the Treasury is concerned about the idea of injecting billions of public
funds into a merger that will lead to a large number of job cuts and does not
want to participate in any mergers. Commentators question whether any
GM/Chrysler tie-up would happen at all without government support. Both Ford
and GM are off their worst levels, but still in negative territory. INTC warned
about the impact of possible follow-on effects on its business from the credit
crisis, noting that key suppliers are facing insolvency. According to the tech
giant, tightening credit markets may hurt key suppliers, delay product launches
and keep customers getting the credit they need to buy. Sprint cancelled its
plan to divest Nextel, noting that it will "rejuvenate" the "important
asset." The DoJ approved the Verizon/Alltel deal, but is requiring Verizon
to sell assets in 15 more areas than it had previously demanded. VZ earlier had
agreed to divest spectrum in 85 markets.
- Among the leading financial names, Morgan Stanley is up 3% after Treasury
confirmed it would buy $10B of preferred shares and warrants (58.8% of its
market cap) at an initial exercise price of $22.99/shr. JPM and WFC are even
stronger, up 4.5%. AXP-3% formally stated it is facing difficult conditions in
global capital markets that may hurt business and operations and does not
expect these conditions to improve in the near future. The New York Fed said it
was hopeful that a CDS clearinghouse can be up and working in Nov/Dec period.
Note today has been speculated as the end of the fiscal quarter for many funds,
making adjustments possible in holdings and allocations.
- In currencies, concerns deepened regarding slowing global growth headlined by
weak German Retail Sales, cautious comments from the BoJ and seven-year lows in
the Oct Chicago PMI, bringing risk aversion back into the market after several
days of confidence. Carry-related pairs are now being particularly affected in
light of such recent data. The BoJ disappointed the market with a 20bps rate
instead of the suggested 25bps. Dealers are noting that stress in Europe is
building, demonstrated by the spread on numerous government bonds. Europe's
economic troubles on both the growth and inflation fronts could increase as
German union IG Metall is preparing for possible strikes that could begin in
the second week of November. ECB members continue to note that a rate cut is
possible, while noting the ECB's standing policy on not pre-committing to any
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production
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The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
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