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Foirex Blog - European market Update: Global economic backdrop becoming 'bleaker'; Spain, Italian, Hungary and China PMI are lowest on record

Today 05:40am

European market Update: Global economic backdrop becoming 'bleaker'; Spain, Italian, Hungary and China PMI are lowest on record


- 2:30 (SW) Sweden Oct Swed Bank Survey: 39.0 v 41.5e

- 3:15 (SP) Spain Oct Manufacturing PMI: 34.6 v 38.3 prior (lowest reading on record)

- 3:30 (SZ) Oct Swiss SVME PMI: 47.0 v 45.3e

- 3:45 (IT) Oct PMI Manufacturing: 39.7 v 41. 5e (lowest reading on record)

- 3:50 (FR) Oct PMI Manufacturing: 40.6 v 40.8e

- 3:55 (GE) Oct PMI Manufacturing: 42.9 v 43.3e

- 4:00 (EU) Oct PMI Manufacturing: 41.1 v 41.3e

- 4:30 (UK) Oct PMI Manufacturing: 41.5 v 40.1e

- 4:45 (EU) EU Commission lowers 2009 GDP forecast to 0.1% from 1.5% prior; Sees considerable uncertainty and precarious situation


- In equities: Soc Gen [GLE.FR] Reported Q3 Net €183M below consensus estimates of €581M and Operating Profit €724M compared to estimates of €1.25B. It Q3 revenues were also below expectations with €5.11B reported compared to €5.33Be. Its Proforma Tier 1 ratio on Sep 30 was 9.0%, new debt under the government plan lifted the ratio by 50 bps|| Commerzbank [CBK.GE] Reported Q3 Net Loss €285M below estimates of €72M. Revenues were slightly ahead at €1.93B versus €1.80B estimates. The bank noted it would utilize German gov't financial market stabilization fund. It guided mid-term Capital 1 ratio around 7-9% compared to a prior view of 7-8% range. Noted that after Dresdner takeover Tier 1 capital ratio will be in the upper range of prior guidance. Core capital has been improved by the SOFIN injection of €8.2B, with further guarantees bringing total to €15B

-Added that under agreement with SOFIN may not pay dividends in 2009 and 2010. There are growing signs that the situation in the global financial markets are affecting the real economy.|| Lloyds TSB [LLOY.UK] Guided its 9-month pretax below prior expectations. It noted that its HBOS acquisition seen complete in Jan 2009. To raise £4.5B in capital . || Solarworld [Reported Q3 Net €35.9M compared to €44.7M estimates and Rev €238.3M v €247Me. It Guided FY08 above prior expectations with targets profit growth above 30% and around 25-30% in 2009. The CEO noted that the company has €900M in liquidity and did not expect any risk to the capital in Q4 || Nobel Biocare [NOBN.SZ] Reported Q3 Revenues of €132.8M in line with analyst estimates of €133M. It net came in at €13.5M below estimates of €23.9M. The company expected a further slowdown in growth for the remainder of 2008 and added that it anticipated that its growth will under perform the market average this year due to its geographic and business mix, lastly, given the current economic environment, it is not possible at this time to provide any reliable quantitative guidance. || Ryan Air [RYA.UK] Reported Q2 Net €193.6M above estimates of €182M. Revenues were €1.03B and in line with estimates of €1.03B. The company maintained its FY guidance and remained confident it would break even in 2008 even with losses in Q3 and Q4. || Zurich Financial [ZURN.SZ] Entered into JV with Abu Dhabi National Takaful company || Thomson [TMS.FR] Names Stepane Rougeot as new CFO

- Speakers: Fed's Lacker: Essential that Fed does not let inflation "drift from view"; Reasonable that US emerges from recession in 2009. Crucial that inflationary expectation do not increase during the recession. He added that one should be cautious to assume that economic slack would cut core inflation. Lastly he noted that the weak economy main cause of credit tightness, not the financial market crisis || ECB seen cutting interest rates by 50bps at Thursday policy meeting according to unconfirmed sources. It noted that another coordinated interest rate cut was unlikely and that the Central banks would act alone, but in same direction. The source noted that the ECB was concerned about rapid growth deterioration and that its ECB staff was revising its December growth and inflation projections downward. Lastly Central bank communication has increased since financial market crisis worsened || French PM stated that he did not rule out that government could take stakes in French banks if banks do not lend to business || India's PM Singh noted that the financial market crisis was likely to be more severe and prolonged than previously expected and that it would impact India's economy. However, the PM noted that direct exposure of Indian banks to problem assets was minimal. The PM stated that India was willing to take additional monetary/fiscal steps if needed, confident financial system will be stable and function well. || German Fin Min: Commerzbank decision to tap government rescue plan was responsible. It noted that the action strengthens bank and protects holders|| EU Juncker: Sees 2009 EU GDP growth 0.0-0.03% y/y || Swiss Fin Min stated that Switzerland would need some budget revisions in 2010. Country's budget situation is relatively comfortable while tax revenues remain positive but would discuss existing tax dispute with German counterpart in coming weeks

- In Currencies: The CHF was weaker after comments from SNB's Roth over the weekend that the recent rise in CHF was 'a problem'. USD/CHF at 1.1570 after testing 1.1475 in Asia. EUR/CHF up 100 pips at 1.4860. The USD was off its worst lvels against the European pairs, aided by comments from an ECB source. Reportedly the ECB could lower its interest rates by 50bps at Thursday policy meeting to 4.25%. EUR/USD at 1.2840 and GBP/USD trading at 1.6210.

- Credit Crisis: Kohlberg Kravis Roberts [KKR] Delayed plans to Go public; citing market turmoil . The company had planned to go public by taking over the Amsterdam-listed buyout fund it created in 2006, but noted it would not complete the transaction until next year at the earliest. Noting that `Sources of liquidity may be not only more difficult, but also impossible to obtain in the current market environment,''

*** NOTES ***

- The market is focusing on the US election and the potential results of the Presidential race and Congress. Overall the dealer sentiment is viewing the event as a initial USD negative. Equity markets have begun the month of November on a positive note with traders pondering why the continued euphoria over the last week. One dealer noted that perhaps a new month and asset allocations are possible factor The PMI data came out for Europe and a few countries (Spain, Italy and Hungary) encountered a few 'all-time record low readings. This complemented China PMI with its worst reading on record. Guessing new month and asset allocations a possible factor Thus despite the improved funding costs there continues to be extreme selective lending. Again, trading desks noting that viewed in terms of margin calls there continued to be more loans being called than new credit extended.

Looking Ahead:

8:00 (BR) Brazil Oct Trade Balance: Expectations: $1.31B v $2.76B prior

10:00 (US) Oct ISM Manufacturing: Expectations 41.5 v 43.5 prior; Prices Paid: Expectations 48.0 v 53.5 prior

10:00 (US) Sept Construction Spending MoM: Expectations -0.8% v 0.0% prior

- Speakers:

- 11:00 BOE's King and Chancellor darling testify to UK Treasury Committee


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