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Monday November 3, 2008 - 13:02:28 GMT
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FOREX NEWS-Easing risk aversion cools dollar, yen rally

Mon Nov 3, 2008 7:34am EST

* Dollar, yen ease after stunning Oct as risk aversion cools

* World stocks in positive territory

* Global recession fears persist, further deleveraging seen

* U.S. election eyed

(Adds quotes, update prices, changes byline)

By Veronica Brown

LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The euro and high-yielding currencies rose against the dollar on Monday, while the yen retreated broadly as abating risk aversion lifted stocks.

The scale of investors' deleveraging was highlighted in October, when the dollar index .DXY posted its biggest monthly percentage gain in 17 years and the euro suffered its largest monthly fall against the dollar and yen since its 1999 launch.

Concern about the prospect of a global recession was expected to limit gains in riskier assets and offer support to the low-yielding dollar and yen.

"The problem for the market is that all the trades that worked well for the past 5 years went badly very quickly," said Michael Rosborough, senior global FX strategist at Citigroup in London.

"On bounces like this you would expect to see people still liquidating and using them as an opportunity to lighten up on positions," he added.

By 1200 GMT, the euro was up 0.9 percent on the day at $1.2845 <EUR=> and rose 1.6 percent to 127.34 yen <EURJPY=>.

Sterling rose around 0.7 percent against the dollar to $1.6190 <GBP=>, while the dollar gained 0.7 percent to 99.14 yen <JPY=>. The high-yielding Australian and New Zealand dollars also rose around 1.4 percent versus the U.S. currency.

World stocks, as measured by MSCI's all-country index, rose 0.9 percent on the day .MIWD00000PUS.


Major events this week include the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday [ID:nN02470309], with a win by Democrat Barack Obama generally seen as more favourable for financial markets.

Also, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia are all expected to lower interest rates to protect their struggling economies from the threat of a looming global recession.

Each of them is expected to cut rates by at least half a percentage point. The U.S. Federal Reserve last week cut its key rate by half a point to 1.0 percent and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) cut its rate to 0.30 percent from 0.50 percent.

Analysts said Britain's central bank could cut rates by more than the half percentage point that is expected.

"The risks are tilted toward an even larger move, as the upside risks to inflation have diminished significantly, according to resident BoE hawk (Tim) Besley," RBC strategists said in a note to clients.

Emerging giants China and India also cut rates last week.

Economic weakness was underscored by a report on euro zone manufacturing activity, which sank in October below record low levels initially estimated.

The Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector fell to 41.1 -- the lowest in the survey's 11-year history -- from September's 45.0. That was below the flash estimate and economists' forecasts of 41.3.

The release marks the fifth consecutive month the PMI index has been below the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction.

The U.S. Institute of Supply Management's factory activity index, due out at 1500 GMT, is also expected to show further weakness. Economists expect a reading of 41.5 versus 43.5 in September. (Reporting by Veronica Brown; editing by Swaha Pattanaik)

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