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Tuesday May 18, 2004 - 08:43:29 GMT -

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Euro Breaks Above 200-Day SMA

Daily Forex Technical Report 05-18-2004

Euro Breaks Above 200-Day SMA
Dollar Swiss to Test Lower Bollinger

Technical Outlook

Although the potential double bottom in the EURUSD relieves some short term bearish momentum, bulls have no reason to get excited until we see a break of 1.2125, the upper Bollinger / 100-day EMA / trendline resistance and 38.2% fibo of the Sept-Aug rally. Above that level is resistance at 1.2180, the 3/5 high. A sustained break and close above that level is needed to confirm the basing pattern. Aggressive bears will be looking to sell towards yesterday's high and the 50-day SMA at 1.2065. However another test of what has now become very significant support at 1.1760 cannot be guaranteed until the moving average confluence (10, 20 & 200-day SMA) above 1.1935 is broken. Before either level is taken out, expect range trading between 1.1970-1.2100. Bulls looking for some short term profits may find attractive risk reward at 1.1940/50, the 38.2% fibo of 1.1725-1.2060 and 5/12 resistance. There is no stopping USDJPY as a test of the 5/3 low and former range support now resistance at 115 seems inevitable. Immediate resistance is at 114.60, the neckline resistance and 50% fibo retracement of 125.79-103.40. A move above 115 immediately exposes 116, the 138.2% fibo from the Mar bear wave and 120 July highs. Bulls will be looking to buy on dips towards the 5/17 low at 113.08. Another "dip-buying" opportunity is the 5/12 low and 50% fibo support from the Aug-April bear wave at 112.46. However, bulls remain in control until the pair is able to close below this level. More consolidation between 1.7455-1.7735, the 10 & 200-day SMA in the GBPUSD suggests that an imminent expansion in volatility may occur over the short-term. Yesterday's rally should be viewed as corrective, as the descending triangle on the daily and fibo resistance above gives bears the upper hand. Shorts will look to sell on rallies toward the 10 & 20-day SMA, or on a break of Friday's low and the 200-day SMA at 1.7450 to target 1.7375, the 38.2% fibo of 1.5614 - 1.9137. Bulls can take advantage of some near term gains towards 1.80, on a move above 1.7800, the 5/12 high and 20-day EMA. However, a close above the head & shoulders neckline at 1.80 would be needed to reverse the overall bearish sentiment. The breakdown in USDCHF below support at 1.2875 (the 5/12 low and 50-day SMA) has put the pair at the bottom of its 2 month trading range. Although bearish momentum dominates with the moving average confluence above, bulls may look to go long for a retracement at 1.2680, the 100-day SMA and 50% fibo of 1.2140-1.3226 rally. Below that level, support is at 125.55, the 61.8% fibo. Bears will continue to look to sell on rallies towards the 1.3100 former highs. A close above that level would be needed to negate short-term bearish momentum and give bulls an opportunity to target a move towards 1.3200, the 50% fibo of Aug-Jan bear wave / upper Bollinger and 1.3230, the 4/26 high.


Comment from 04/26
USDCAD rallied to the 3657 high (04/22) after our last comment. A quick retracement occurred afterwards to the 3512 low on 04/23, 145pts lower. Since we broke the range on the upside, the outlook is bullish. However a typical breakout retracement might be in the cards. If such a scenario plays out, 3370/3400 will be the perfect entry to catch some upside momentum thanks to the 20 EMA, 200 SMA (slightly below) and a robust Fibo confluence (23.6% Fibo from the 03 - 04 bear wave & 50% Fibo from the Jul - Jan bear wave). Reversal players will also play the retracement but they will get in higher at 3680/3700 in order to exploit the High BB and 138.2% Fibo from the Nov - Jan bear wave. If the area breaks it will become S and bulls will buy dips into the area. 1.4000 would then be the next upside target (38.2% Fibo from the 02 - 04 bear wave). On the downside another good S to keep in mind is the 1.2950/1.3000 zone. Bulls will play the range there thanks to the low BB and 38.2% Fibo from the Nov - Jan bear wave.

On 04/28 USDCAD broke the 3680/3700 area. The R turned S and the market used the zone as S (lows between 3630 & 3696 from 04/29 to 05/04). A rally to the 3991 high, 250pts higher occurred on 05/13. The outlook is clearly bullish. In addition, the yesterday's price action purged numerous weak longs out of the market. Most bears will then stay on the sidelines but aggressive reversal bears might try 4030/80 in order to exploit the High BB and 50% Fibo from the 02 - 04 bear wave. Vols are low and a breakout scenario is however highly probable. If 4000 is clearly taken, the level will become S and 4250 will be the next stop (50% Fibo from the 03 - 04 bear wave). Below, bulls will have a decent buy on dip play at 3580/3610 thanks to a robust Fibo confluence (61.8% Fibo from the Jul03 - Jan04 & 123.6% Fibo projection from the Nov - Jan bull wave)


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