traded in a mostly muted fashion in London/NY, with unusually tight ranges on
the DJIA (as of early afternoon NY) not encouraging aggressive positioning. The
Oct manufacturing ISM was even worse than consensus of 41.0, at 38.9 (low since
1982) vs Sepâ€™s 43.5 but it had limited impact given the Chicago PMI shocker on
Friday clearly warned of downside risks. There were further clear signs of
improvement in money markets, with 3mth USD LIBOR fixing another 16bp lower at
2.86%. NZD/USD came under some pressure in the London morning,
hitting a low of 0.5813 but it recovered to the mid-0.59 in NY.
managed a >2 cent range in London (though
quiet by recent standards), slipping as low as 0.6643 but recovering to 0.6775
the week in reasonable spirits in the mid-1.28s but had retreated to below
1.2700 by the NY afternoon, undermined by banking sector worries. Commerzbank
sought EUR8.2bn in fresh capital from the German governmentâ€™s rescue fund.
some brief nervous selling in early NY, from 99.20 to 98.40, but returned to
the 99.00 area, with less inspiration than usual from US equities (DJIA
flat in NY lunchtime trade).
factory ISM falls from 43.5 to 38.9 in Oct. The factory ISM continued its September
plunge in October, falling to its lowest since 1982. It is now clearly in
recessionary territory not just for the factory sector but for the economy as a
whole (i.e. readings sub 44). All the key activity indices were sharply weaker,
including exports which posted their first sub 50 reading (i.e. contraction) in
nearly six years â€“ consistent with weak trading partner demand and the stronger
US dollar. The ISM said that manufacturing appeared to be experiencing significant
demand destruction associated with the financial crisis, ongoing hurricane
disruption and the lagged impact of prior energy price gains. The latter two of
those three should abate now the hurricane season has passed and energy prices
have plunged but we suspect they only account for a very small component of the
October ISM collapse. Inflationary pressures have similarly dissolved in this
Euroland factory PMI for October was revised down from 41.3 to 41.1, making that
indexâ€™s steep decline even steeper.
European Commission published its latest six monthly forecasts for Euroland, the broader
EU and all member economies. The Euroland growthforecast for
2008 was revised down from 1.5% in April to 1.2%, while 2009 wasforecast to
see the economy shrink 0.1%, which would be the weakest outcomesince 1993.
factory PMI rises from 41.2 to 41.5 in Oct. In contrast to the other factory
surveys noted already, in the UK the sector
appeared to stabilise in October after Septemberâ€™s steep fall, but it too
remains at very weak levels.
neutral NZD/USD short term. To be sure, the NZD is oversold and we expect to
see that being unwound into next week. However, if we can push back up to the
0.60/0.62 level, we would be happy to consider selling strength. We see AUD/NZD
higher, with scope for 1.18 multi-day, as an improved risk environment
encourages unwinding of some of the excessive AUD shorts.
Country Release Last Forecast
4 Nov NZ Oct
ANZ Commodity Price Index â€“4.9% â€“
Melbourne Cup Day (VIC, ACT)
Announcement 6.00% 5.50%
US Sep Factory
Orders â€“4.0% â€“1.2%
Jpn Sep Cash
Earnings %yr 0.1% 0.2%
Eur Sep PPI
%yr 8.5% 8.5%
UK Oct PMI
Construction 38.8 37.5
5 Nov Aus
Sep Dwelling Approvals â€“3.7% â€“1.0%
Balance AUDbn 1.364 0.850
â€¢ NZ Q3 LCI
and QES Review (3 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Labour Market Preview (29 October)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (28 October)
â€¢ NZ Q3 CPI
Review (21 October)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (20 October)
â€¢ RBNZ OCR
Preview (17 October)
â€¢ NZ Q3 CPI
Preview (14 October)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.