traded in a mostly muted fashion in London/NY, with unusually tight ranges on
the DJIA (as of early afternoon NY) not encouraging aggressive positioning. The
Oct manufacturing ISM was even worse than consensus of 41.0, at 38.9 (low since
1982) vs Sepâ€™s 43.5 but it had limited impact given the Chicago PMI shocker on
Friday clearly warned of downside risks. There were further clear signs of
improvement in money markets, with 3mth USD LIBOR fixing another 16bp lower at
2.86%. NZD/USD came under some pressure in the London morning,
hitting a low of 0.5813 but it recovered to the mid-0.59 in NY.
managed a >2 cent range in London (though
quiet by recent standards), slipping as low as 0.6643 but recovering to 0.6775
the week in reasonable spirits in the mid-1.28s but had retreated to below
1.2700 by the NY afternoon, undermined by banking sector worries. Commerzbank
sought EUR8.2bn in fresh capital from the German governmentâ€™s rescue fund.
some brief nervous selling in early NY, from 99.20 to 98.40, but returned to
the 99.00 area, with less inspiration than usual from US equities (DJIA
flat in NY lunchtime trade).
factory ISM falls from 43.5 to 38.9 in Oct. The factory ISM continued its September
plunge in October, falling to its lowest since 1982. It is now clearly in
recessionary territory not just for the factory sector but for the economy as a
whole (i.e. readings sub 44). All the key activity indices were sharply weaker,
including exports which posted their first sub 50 reading (i.e. contraction) in
nearly six years â€“ consistent with weak trading partner demand and the stronger
US dollar. The ISM said that manufacturing appeared to be experiencing significant
demand destruction associated with the financial crisis, ongoing hurricane
disruption and the lagged impact of prior energy price gains. The latter two of
those three should abate now the hurricane season has passed and energy prices
have plunged but we suspect they only account for a very small component of the
October ISM collapse. Inflationary pressures have similarly dissolved in this
Euroland factory PMI for October was revised down from 41.3 to 41.1, making that
indexâ€™s steep decline even steeper.
European Commission published its latest six monthly forecasts for Euroland, the broader
EU and all member economies. The Euroland growthforecast for
2008 was revised down from 1.5% in April to 1.2%, while 2009 wasforecast to
see the economy shrink 0.1%, which would be the weakest outcomesince 1993.
factory PMI rises from 41.2 to 41.5 in Oct. In contrast to the other factory
surveys noted already, in the UK the sector
appeared to stabilise in October after Septemberâ€™s steep fall, but it too
remains at very weak levels.
neutral NZD/USD short term. To be sure, the NZD is oversold and we expect to
see that being unwound into next week. However, if we can push back up to the
0.60/0.62 level, we would be happy to consider selling strength. We see AUD/NZD
higher, with scope for 1.18 multi-day, as an improved risk environment
encourages unwinding of some of the excessive AUD shorts.
Country Release Last Forecast
4 Nov NZ Oct
ANZ Commodity Price Index â€“4.9% â€“
Melbourne Cup Day (VIC, ACT)
Announcement 6.00% 5.50%
US Sep Factory
Orders â€“4.0% â€“1.2%
Jpn Sep Cash
Earnings %yr 0.1% 0.2%
Eur Sep PPI
%yr 8.5% 8.5%
UK Oct PMI
Construction 38.8 37.5
5 Nov Aus
Sep Dwelling Approvals â€“3.7% â€“1.0%
Balance AUDbn 1.364 0.850
â€¢ NZ Q3 LCI
and QES Review (3 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Labour Market Preview (29 October)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (28 October)
â€¢ NZ Q3 CPI
Review (21 October)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (20 October)
â€¢ RBNZ OCR
Preview (17 October)
â€¢ NZ Q3 CPI
Preview (14 October)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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