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Forex Blog - European Market Update: USD softens ahead of US election results; Market hoping for aggressive European interest rate cuts later this week

Today 06:07am

European Market Update: USD softens ahead of US election results; Market hoping for aggressive European interest rate cuts later this week

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

1:45 (SZ) Swiss Oct CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.5%e

3:00 (NO) Norway Oct PMI: 42.5 v 42.5e

3:00 (SP) Spain Oct Unemployment net: 192.7K v 110.0Ke

4:00 (SP) Oct Consumer Confidence: 50.1 v 49.5 prior

4:30 (UK) Oct PMI Construction: 35.7 v 37.8e; lowest reading on record

5:00 (EU) Sept Euro-Zone PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 7.9% v 8.0%e

6:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Industrial Production M/M: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 9.8% v 8.5%e


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities: UBS [UBSN.SZ] Reported Q3 Net CHF296M above analyst estimates of CHF 254.89M. However, this figures includes a tax credit of CHF912M. Revenues were CHF5.56B below estimates of CHF7.65B. The firm named a new Chief Risk Officer. Results for Q4 would include two large accounting effects. Since the announcement of the SNB transaction, credit spreads on UBS's debts have narrowed. If this persists, some or most of the accumulated CHF4.8B own credit gain will reverse. CFO stated on the conference call that net new funds were still quite disappointing; but encouraging following the Swiss Gov't aid disclosure|| RBS [RBS.UK] Announces plans to raise £19B in capital in which it would issue £5.0B in preference shares. It saw Q3 writedowns. It noted that the economic slowdown coupled with the continued dislocation in financial markets and measures to reduce risk on balance to affect Q4 and FY results. It added that the weakening economic environment had fed through into a deteriorating trend in credit metrics across all divisions in Q3. || Swiss Re [RUKN.SZ] Reported Q3 net loss CHF304M versus expectations of a profit CHF236M. The company maintained its FY targets, but suspended its share repurchase program. Its Q3 unrealized mark-to-market loss on its structured credit default swaps was CHF289M|| BMW [BMW.GE] Reported Q3 Net €298M below estimates of €317M. Rev €12.6B v €12.8Be, cuts FY sales forecast . The company noted that it saw a significant drop in October sales and that vehicle sales no longer expected to reach record level in 2008. Global economic crisis outlook continued to darken and sees crisis lasting well into 2009. It added that credit crisis increased credit spreads for the sector and group and higher refinancing costs. It did confirm margin goals for 2010 and 2012 || Siemens [SIE.GE] sold its 50% Fujitsu computer JV stake for about €450M and saw the transaction closing Apr 1, 2009.|| Nokia [NOK To launch reorganization and to cut 450 jobs in marketing unit and 130 jobs in research || Marks & Spencer [MKS.UK] Reported H1 Net £223.2 in line with estimates of £217.5M. Revenues came in at £4.2B compared to £4.21B estimates. It maintained dividend at 8.3P/share. States that retail market were the hardest since early 1990s and holds cautious outlook for rest of FY08 || Fresenius Medical [FRE.GE] Reported Q3 Net $206M versus expectations of $209M., Rev $2.71B were below forecasts of $3.01Be, but the company raised FY08 Rev outlook as it continued to see trading in line with expectations. FY08 Rev growth of 9.5-10% is reaffirmed and added that financing is very stable through 2011 || Wacker Chemie [WCH.GE] Reported Q3 Net €170.8M above the €135.2M estimates. Revenues came in at €1.16B v €1.13B estimates. It confirmed itsFY outlook and added that it saw sales growth above 10% and a higher EBITDA. || Imtech [M.NV] Acquired NVS, a Swedish technical services company, for €235M. It noted that the purchase would add €350M in revenues || JD Wetherspoon [JDW.UK] Reported 13 week SSS up 1.5%; and noted that its trading was broadly in line with expectations and remained confident of its prospects for 2008. Its 13 week op margin came in at -1.3% and that a 140M private placement renewal due Sept 2009 || Skanska [SKAB.SW] Reported Q3 Net SEK1.2B relatively in line with estimates of SEK1.1B.; Op Profit SEK1.59B v SEK1.39Be, Rev SEK36.1B v 36.9Be .Q3 Order bookings SEK30.4B v SEK29.6B y/y. It saw US public construction projects impacted by weaker finances and that UK and Nordic construction markets are weakening due to global financial crisis || Beiersdorf [BEI.GE] Reports Q3 Net €108M v €128.9Me, Rev €1.46Be in line with €1.44B estimates but reaffirmed its FY outlook. || Luxottica [LUX.IT] Confirmed press speculation that it signed an agreement in India for 100 store. India's DLF would open over 100 Sunglass Hut over 5-years under a franchisee agreement


- Speakers: South Korea's Vice Fin Min Kim stated that S. Korea has not decided whether or not to use the IMF lending program . He did note that the global financial crisis was hurting the country's economy, but added that liquidity was expected to improve || Pres Hu Jintao confirmed to attend the G-20 financial summit on Nov 15th in the US. || India Fin Min stated that to continue monitor liquidity situation; no indication that bad loans are worse in Q2. he added that State run banks face higher credit demands and Indian banks were asked to evaluate capital requirements || Germany's VCI revises its 2008 sales growth outlook to around 3% versus 4.5% prior view || EU's Juncker: No short term exit from financial market crisis and the risk of a credit crunch in Europe remains. The financial market crisis is impacting the Euro-Zone's real economy and that bot internal and external demand is weakening. Lastly he agreed with th EU's Commission lowering of the Euro-Zone GDP forecast for 2009 || Chancellor Merkel: New financial rules must be decided quickly || German union German IG Metall Union stated that it reached a compromise with Volkswagen [VOW.GE] noting that "Auto 5000" workers will be integrated in company; 4,200 workers to be covered by agreement


- In Currencies: The US election is causing some USD profit-taking ahead of the results later Tuesday. EUR/USD above 1.276 after testing the 1.2530 area during Asia. GBP/USD was rebounding from early losses of 1.5605 to probe back above the 1.587 neighborhood. The weaker USD helping commodities recover from early weakness as oil moves towards its upper end of its electronic session range. The JPY-related pairs higher as some risk appetite increases for the time being. As European and US equity futures were at session highs. European bourses were up over 1% ahead of the NY morning.


- Fixed Income: German governments rallied across the board, with better bids in the short end leading to a slightly steeper yield curve. The 2y Schatz was down 5bps to yield 2.48%, the 5y BOBL down 3bps to 3.13% ;and the 10y Bund relatively unchanged at 3.84%. ||Gilts are currently sharply steeper, continuing the trend seen over the past 2 months. The 2y note, oscillating around 2.8%, briefly touched its lowest yield in 30 years at 2.78%, ahead of the BoE rate decision on Thursday. The DMO tapped £2.25B of the 4.75% 2030 with an average yield of 4.95%, and a bid to cover of 1.37, lower than the previous 1.58. Notable selling in longer parts of the curve has pushed up the yield on the 20y 5bps higher to 4.93% and the 30y 3bps higher to 4.55% || Meanwhile US treasuries were flatter, with the 2y note 4bps higher yielding 1.47%, the 10y unchanged at 3.92%. ||Credit markets are awaiting results of the credit event auction on Icelandic name Landesbanki, with similar auctions taking place on Wednesday for Glitinir, and Thurday for Kaupthing. The iTraxx Crossover index was seen tighter by about 5bps, at 750bps in early trading. ||DSTA: Dutch have flexible approach to extra €30B Q4 supply. It noted that the Dutch rescue plan to add €30B to its financing needs. the 3-year DSL tap size on Nov 11th could be more than indicated and that the Dec 9th auction date could tap one or more outstanding bonds. The DSTA stated it would not rule out the out possibility of issuing a new bond. It added that the DSL/OAT spread widening was due to a 'flight to liquidity' and that spread was not at realistic level|| Swedish Debt Office amended its Government forecasts. It revises 2008 Surplus lower to SEK148B v prior SEK163B and amended its 2009 outlook to deficit of SEK23B in 2009 v prior forecast of a surplus of SEK83B. The debt office saw borrowing need of SEK120B in the 2009 and 2010 period with the funding largely to be met through the issuance of T-bills. It noted that the revision were due to the global credit crisis as the financial market crisis was impacting growth and making privatization harder. Thus it saw lower tax revenues and fewer jobs as a result.


- Energy: Iran OPEC Chief: Improving economy will be a priority for new US govt; better US economy would be a positive for global energy market. Reiterated the view that Rising Oil inventories would Indicate that the market continues to be oversupplied, which could require more output Cuts To Balance Market || NYMEX Dec futures recovered from earlier lows over global demand concerns. Dec at 63.34, still some $0.50 lower from Monday's pit close.


***Notes***

- US corporate earnings continue to flow in. Expected before the bell today include: ADM, DF, FE, PPL, THC

- Dealers noting that the data front continues to be bad. No region seems exempt. BMW lowered its FY sales forecast. Spanish unemployment surged. US election is causing some jitters and providing the USD with a retracement from its recent positive momentum. The equity markets firmer on continued hopes for 'aggressive interest rate cuts. The RBA cut more than expected by 75bps. Dealers noting that price action ahead of the election results were due to temporarily factors and complemented by an overdue bounce in risk appetite.



Looking Ahead:

10:00 (US) Sept Factory Orders: % v -0.8%e

US Elections results

 

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