Sunday December 12, 2004 - 07:18:06 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 13th December 2004 Price: ... 105.17
Resistance: 105.45 ... 105.65 ... 106.07 ... 106.39
Support....: 104.95 ... 104.73 ... 104.38 ... 104.22
While 104.73-95 holds we look for further gains towards 106.76
The gains on Friday moved slightly higher than expected but haven't yet reached the ideal 106.76 target. However, the pullback from 106.19 looks close to completion and thus we look for further moves higher today. Support is seen at 104.95 and we feel this will hold though stops on Dollar Buys should be kept below 104.70. A break back above 105.55-65 will encourage the bullish view for continued gains to the 106.10-20 area which should cause a small pullback but should remain above the 104.50-60 pivot area and then rally complete the entire correction from 101.82 at the ideal 106.76 target.
The losses from 106.19 look close to completion and we see good support at 104.95 and 104.73. Thus selling opportunities will come either on a break of 104.70 or on a test of the 106.76 ideal target. Selling at 106.76 will require a stop above 107.28. An earlier break below 104.70 should quickly see a decline down to 104.22 which could cause a pullback. Below 104.22 signals losses down to 103.50-70.
Elliott Wave Comments:
December 13th 2004
We continue to focus on a 50% retracement of the decline from 111.71 (Wave -ii- peak) to the 101.82 low (Wave -iii- low) which rests at 106.76. The rally from 101.82 appears to be developing in a Double Zig-zag which we feel should remain above 104.95 and reach 106.76 possibly Monday. Expect this to cap the Dollar to complete Wave -iv- and suggest the start of a three wave move lower to somewhere between 101.18 and 98.63 with the perfect target highlighted at 99.75.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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