- Indices are benefiting from an election-day bounce as voters head to the
polls and the uncertainty of the extended presidential contest begins to ebb
away, with the S&P500 above 1000 for the first time since mid October.
Historically indices have rallied in the 12 months following a democratic win
and fallen after a republican victory, although market watchers generally
believe that this year's result will have little impact on its own given the
severity of the current global crisis. Besides the election the major theme
this morning is investors around the world are seeing their willingness to take
on risk return. Front-month crude is up four and a half bucks in early trading
while gasoline traded up nearly 12% at one point. Each helping the energy patch
post gains, with the OIH up 8% mid morning. Dec copper is working back towards
$2 and Gold is up more than 4.5%. The Dollar is under real pressure against the
European currencies while the Yen is giving ground across the board.
Three-month USD LIBOR took another step lower, declining 14 bps to 2.70%. It is
now more than 200 basis points from its highs during the height of the crisis.
- Archer-Daniels Midland blew out earnings estimates, beating the Street by
impressive margins. Net earnings were up 168% y/y, thanks to higher profits as
well as a change to the company's method for valuing inventories, as well as
higher commodity prices. On the conference call, ADM's CEO warned that given
the decline in crude gasoline prices are now lower than ethanol prices, which
will likely slow the overall biofuels industry. ADM also said that the company
would announce a new $500M sugarcane ethanol JV with a Brazilian partner later
this afternoon. ADM+15% is making strong gains, helping to boost biofuels
competitors CZZ+8, BIOF+15% and especially PEIX+40%. Marvel surprised with big
EPS and revenue wins were well ahead of analysts' estimates. The firm boosted
its guidance for the full year, although investors seem to be concentrating on
FY09 guidance that is well below targets. MVL-6% is under water mid morning.
Mid-cap healthcare names Health Net and Tenet Healthcare are both down more
than 15% in early trading after weak earnings reports. HNT-22% missed EPS targets
by a wide range and slashed its FY08 view, and although THC-18% earnings were
in the black, its revenues came in lower than expected. Anadarko reported very
strong earnings and revenue yesterday after the close; APC+8% is strong in
early trading. MasterCard also reported yesterday. While MA+12% had an
excellent quarter, the CEO expressed concern that the economic slowdown will
hit consumer spending. Visa, American Express and Discover are all up 4-7% in
- The Wall Street Journal reported overnight that the Treasury may open the
TARP recapitalization program a broad range of financial companies, not just
banks and insurance companies. Specialty finance firms GE Capital and CIT Group
were mentioned by name in the article; this morning a CIT executive confirmed
that the company would participate in the program. The WSJ article noted that
the Treasury may scrap early plans to buy distressed assets via auction,
purchasing them directly instead. The leading financial names are making gains this
morning, with Citi leading the pack up 5%. Goldman is up 3%; overnight the FT
reported that a $6B GS hedge fund launched back in January had lost close to
$1B through Sept. Morgan spiked 6% but is off its best levels after Landeburg's
Dick Bove raised his 2008-09 earnings estimates for MS.
- In currencies, the bounce in risk appetite ahead of the US
election results is being complemented by growing hunger for the expected
European interest rate cuts later this week. Fitch noted in a recent report
that it expects a severe global recession in 2009 in the United
States, the UK,
the Euro Zone and Japan.
Fitch noted that these areas could experience their steepest decline in GDP
since World War II, with global GDP growth fall to around 1% next year. A Citigroup
analyst complemented this grim view with by noting that emerging markets would
grow around 4.5% (well off earlier views) and putting global economic growth at
1.2%. The two global growth forecasts suggest that global growth could its
slowest pace since the early 1990s. Dealers are noting that recent figures
derived from the euro overnight index average (the Eonia) show interest rate
traders almost fully pricing in a 75bps ECB cut to 3.0%, while British interest
rate futures are suggesting that the BoE could cut rates by 75bps to 3.75%.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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