Tuesday November 4, 2008 - 19:44:41 GMT
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FX Blog- USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for November 5, 2008
USD Trading Outlook: Far East Open for November 5, 2008
- Its being called the āObama bounceā. Financial markets set up Tuesday for an Obama victory and rally on Wednesday. That suggests that the rally has already happened.
- The results of the U.S. elections will likely be known early this evening. If the polls can be trusted, Obama is likely to win a wide victory over McCain. Most of the key states are in the East. A McCain upset would need a win in Pennsylvania. Theoretically McCain could without it, but that would be a difficult path. The outcome of the House and Senate elections are as important. Democrats are seen controlling both. 60 seats in the Senate. 60 seats would give Democrats a filibuster-proof majority.
- Asian bourses were mostly higher. The Nikkei advanced strongly. European bourses ended higher. U.S. equities look to be closing higher.
- The 2-yr U.S. minus E-Z bond spread is -111 bps -5 bps. U.S. bond prices are higher. Prices on E-Z bonds were mixed.
- The USD is down sharply vs. the EUR, GBP and CHF. The JPY is down. The AUD, CAD and NZD are higher. Markets have responded positively to higher share markets. Gold and oil are higher. See the GVI calendar for an updated schedule of data releases in the two weeks ahead.
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