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Wednesday November 5, 2008 - 07:09:38 GMT
GCI Financial - www.gcitrading.com

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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (5 November 2008)

The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2790 level and was capped around the $1.3030 level.  Improved risk appetite has led to the common currency retracing some of its multi-week sell-off but the pair gave back some of those gains today.  The European Central Bank is expected to reduce interest rates by 50bps for the second time in two months tomorrow. ECB member Weber speculates “increased downward pressure” on German economic growth will become more visible in 2009 that could result in a “noticeably cyclical backlash next year.”  Group of 20 finance chiefs convene in Brazil later this week to prepare for a summit of global leaders on 15 November that is being hosted by the U.S. In U.S. news, data released yesterday saw September factory orders fall 2.5% with the ex-transportation component off a record 7.3%.  Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 1.5% in September, an improvement over August’s 2.3% decline.  Traders are trying to figure out how President-elect Obama will impact the financial markets and the U.S. dollar.  EMU-15 officials now estimate 2009 GDP growth will come in around 0.1%, down from the 1.2% expansion expected this year.  In U.S. news, traders are trying to determine how President-elect Obama will impact the financial markets and the U.S. dollar.  Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2135 level.

¥/ CNY

The yen appreciated marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥99.25 level and was capped around the ¥99.90 level.  Top Japanese financial diplomat Sakakibara spoke about the yen’s recent performance saying “Japan would be tempted to intervene” if the dollar declines to a level around the ¥80s, “particularly if it were accompanied by a decline in the (Japanese) equity market.  Because of the yen carry trade, the yen has depreciated fairly significantly over the last four or five years.  So what is happening right now is the unwinding process of this cheap yen bubble.”  Sakakibara added current movements are “a question of yen strength” rather than weakness in other currencies and said “coordinated intervention is not feasible.”  Data released in Japan overnight saw the October monetary base climb +1.4% y/y.  Many economists now expect Japan’s economy will enter a technical recession in the third quarter.  Bank of Japan cut rates last week and reduced its GDP growth forecasts for the fiscal year to March 2009, now predicting virtually no growth at all.  BoJ Governor Shirakawa will speak on 26 November and Deputy Governor Nishimura speaks on 10 December.  Minutes from the October BoJ Policy Board meeting will be released tomorrow.   The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 4.46% to close at ¥9.521.24.  U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¥104.15 level.  The euro weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥127.20 level and was capped around the ¥130.15 level.  The British pound and Swiss franc moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥156.55 and ¥84.60 levels, respectively. 

The British pound came off vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.5750 level and was capped around the $1.6035 level.  Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee could reduce its headline repo rate by as much as 100bps tomorrow with most traders focusing on a 75bps reduction.  A 100bps cut would be the largest cut since 1993.  REC’s monthly Report on Jobs said weakness in equity markets and the general economy reduced demand for permanent and temporary staff at its weakest rate since the survey began in 1997.  Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5275 level.  The euro came off vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ₤0.8105 level and was capped around the ₤0.8165 level.

 

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