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Wednesday November 5, 2008 - 11:31:05 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European PMI Services exhibited record lows; Obama: All things are possible in America


- (UK) Oct HBOS House prices M/M: % v -1.5%e; Y/Y: % v -13.3%e

- (SP) Spanish October PMI Services: 32.2 v 36.1 prior

- (IT) Italian Oct PMI Services: 45.7 v 47.5e

- (FR) French Oct Final PMI Services: 47.5 v 48.8e (equals all-time low reading)

- (GE) German Oct PMI Services:48.3 v 49.7e

- (EU) Oct Final PMI Services: 45.8 v 46.9e; PMI Composite: 43.6 v 44.6e

- (UK) Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v -2.2%

- (UK) Sept Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.8% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.6%

- (UK) Oct PMI Services: 42.3 v 44.5e; lowest reading on record

- (EC) Euro-zone Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -2.2%e

- (UK) BRC October Shop Price Index M/M: -0.1% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.8% prior


-Equities: Arcelor [MTP.FR] Reported Q3 Net $3.82B below expectations of $5.91B with revenues of $35.2B also missing consensus forecasts of $38.8B. It guided Q4 EBITDA $2.5 to 3.0B v 6.72Be and the FY08 EBITA in a range of $21.2 to 24.7B compared to estimates of $28B. The company announced temporary output reductions citing the need for accelerated inventory reduction. It will cut stainless steel production by 30%; cut Q4 Flat carbon US production by over 35%, European production by over 30%; cut Q4 crude steel production by 9M tons cut Q4 long carbon production by around 30% and Cut Asia, Afrca, CIS production by over 35%. The company does not see recovery in stainless steel markets but expected to change growth strategy inline with market conditions. The company maintained its 3% to 5% annual steel growth outlook but noted that steel demand to remain week into early 2009 but that its growth assessment applies once "Unusual Situation" has passed. It saw steel Demand Stabilizing in 2009

|| Total [FP.FR] Reported Q3 Net €3.05Bbelow estimates of €3.78B, but its revenues exceeded expectations with €48.8B above the €45.59B estimates.

|| BNP Paribas [BNP.FR] Reported Q3 Net €901M v €1.09Be, Rev €7.61B v €7.28Be. Current environment remained difficult but would be able to continue to finance the real economy. Its Tier 1 ratio 7.6% || Hannover Re [HNR1.GE] Reported Q3 Net -€395M worse than the -€228.3M estimates. The company noted that would break even in Q4 and saw good prospects next year. worsening of the crisis on international financial markets as well as a higher-than-average burden of catastrophe losses have taken an appreciable toll on the company's result. CFO noted that it would not pay dividend for FY08 || Rheinmetall [RHM.GE] did not expect to reach FY sales and profit forecast and lowered them by 10%. Guided FY08 EBIT in a range of €250-260M versus €255M estimates with Automotive EBIT at €80M; and Defense EBIT at least €180M. It did not that 2009 would be a tough year for the industry and that it was Impossible for reliable targets for automotive sector. || Allied Irish bank [ALBK.UK] Provided interim management report; says all businesses continue to perform well but that Credit environment continues to deteriorate. Asset quality deteriorated; ROI bad debt charge 250bps on property loans but added that the Irish Gov't guarantee will support activity and its Funding position remained strong || SABMiller, Molson Coors US JV reported Q3 Net Income $191M (ex items) v $149M y/y, Rev $1.95B v $1.91B y/y || Continental [CON.G] reportedly Shaeffler considering selling its stake in co. citing that the economic crisis has stretched that ability of Schaeffler to acquire its larger rival || Commerzbank [CBK.GE] CBK.GE: Sees net interest income rising in full year; will come out of financial market crisis in a strengthened position || Balfour Beatty [BBY.UK] Awarded £335M for multiple contracts in US and HK || Redrow [RDW.UK] Housing activity remains subdued and outlook for 2009 is below prior expectations || BT Group [BT.UK] Sekunjalo purchased 30% Stake in co. South African Unit for ZAR27M in cash || Carlsberg [CARLB.DC] Reported Q3 lower Q3 results and cuts its fiscal year outlook. Q3 Net DKK1.22B v DKK1.50B estimates and its revenues DKK18.44B against DKK18.63B forecasts . the company announced cut jobs and the closing of a U.K. facility amid ``deteriorating'' markets in northern and western Europe.

- Speakers: Japan PM Aso: we must provide support to dollar over short term || Riksbank noted that its decision to cut interest rates by 50bps back on Oct 23rd was unanimous. It noted that it could cut rates without harming price stability || ECB's Bini Smaghi noted that market regulations should not be excessive || IG Metall Union Chief Huber: Nationwide strikes can begin on Nov 17 if wage talks do not come to fruition

- In Currencies: EUR/USD consolidating ina 1.28 t0 1.29 during Europe. Dealers noting that the 2-yr U.S/German spread has widened over the last 24 hours to around 107bp. Japan's ex Fin Min Sakakibara noted that JPY could rise to 80 against USD over the next 3-4 months and added that EUR/JPY could fall to 100-110 during that period. He added that Japan "tempted to" intervene if USD/JPY fall in the 80s but suggested that Japan should not intervene as Yen carry trade bubble unwinds.

- Fixed Income: Gilts are Bunds are yielding lower, with curves steeper again. The 5y Gilt was briefly below 5.63%, its lowest yield since June 2003. Short sterling futures are pricing in a 55% chance of a 50bps cate at tomorrows BoE meeting, whilst front month 3mo Euribor futures are fully pricing in a 75% chance of a 25bps cut at the ECB meeting shortly after. The UK sold an additional £250M of the 1.25% 2055 linkers with a bid to cover of 2.10, less than the previous 2.28. Sweden tapped SEK2B of the 4.25% 2019 bonds with a bid to cover of 2.01, lower than the previous 2.08. ||US Treasuries, meanwhile, are marginally flatter, with the 2y note up 4bps to 1.41%, the 10y note up 3bps to 3.75% ||WSJ: steep yield curve suggests economic recovery may take time. The article looks at the sharp decline in short term US treasury yields, which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, and notes that the broader economy is not benefiting from lower rates due to concerns in interbank lending markets about counter party risk, which in turn impedes consumer borrowing. Article noted similar steepening in German, Japanese and UK yield curves. The US 2y-10y spread traded at 248bps briefly on Monday , its widest level since 2003.

Supply || (SW) Sweden to sell SEK2B 4.25% 2019 bonds ||(UK) DMO sold £250M of1.25% 2055 linkers with a bid-to-cover of 2.1 times. Real yield was 0.8%

- Energy: Deputy PM Sechin: Russia to work with OPEC but maintain independent operations ||Iran reiterated it would respond to any challenge to its borders from the US; cites helicopters near its airspace close to Iraq border || Shell [RDSA.UK] called for Force Majeure on Nigerian Exports citing the recent output reduction imposed by OPEC nations. OPEC Cuts

- Credit Crisis: Switzerland confirms raising bank deposit guarantee to CHF100K from CHF30K prior ||Reportedly China's PBoC mulls plan to help some Foreign Banks with their funding difficulties in interbank money market ||Reportedly Switzerland increases its bank deposits guarantee to CHF100K from CHF30K prior. It noted that it remain committed to guarantee Swiss banks capital markets if necessary || SNB noted that the bailout could encourage banks to take more risks and could be counter productive long term. The existing regulatory framework is inadequate and new ones would include caps on allowable debt-to-equity ranges


- Simply historic: Obama elected as the 44th President of the United States; America reinvented. If America can change its political landscape, there is hope that the task of recovering from this current phase financial and economic malaise is possible. The election results failed to mask the efforts needed to implement the necessary medicine to avoid any global recession. The European Services PMI painted the need additional interest rate cuts by the BOE and ECB The PMI data registered all-time and multi-year lows across the board in this data series. BOJ's Shirakawa stressed that its economic outlook was uncertain and that it should focus on its downside risks.

However, the Australian trade balance for Sept was the highest in over 10 years with both exports and imports rising. One dealer noted that perhaps this was a potential bullish sign for infrastructure plays everywhere.

- Dealers noting that overall price action in equities, commodities and currencies continues to be fixated on risk appetite and leveraging/de-leveraging mentality as year-end approaches with less and less liquidity around making way for choppy price action. Thus dealers noting that such conditions causing sessions to endure continued one way moves. The Swiss Gov't confirmed raising bank deposit guarantees to CHF100K from CHF30K prior

- Looking Ahead:

Wednesday morning will see earnings data from Agrium Inc (AGU), Duke Energy (DUK), Foster Wheeler (FWLT), Medco (MHS), Time Warner (TWX), Preliminary jobs data from ADP and Non-Manufacturing ISM for release ahead of Wednesday's US session will also likely determine equity market trading sentiment.

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Oct 31. There are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 16.8%.

- 7:30 (US) Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y there are no consensus expectations for this number; The prior number was 32.6%.

- 8:15 (US) ADP Employment Change. Consensus expectations are -100k ; The prior number was -8k

- 10:00 (US) ISM Non-Manufacturing NMI sa. Consensus expectations are 47 ; The prior number was 50.2



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