lower in thin London/NY trade, with apparent gloom over Fridayâ€™s US employment
report, including some forecasts being revised to -300K on NFP. The DJIA opened
weaker and extended losses into the NY afternoon, with sentiment not helped by
below-consensus readings on both Oct ADP private employment (-157K)
non-manufacturing ISM (44.4). The latter is the lowest in the seriesâ€™ 11 year history,
highlighting the state of the economy inherited by President-elect Obama. US
yields pressed firmly lower, with Eurodollars finding extra fuel in the poor
data and the USD LIBOR looking healthier again, the 3mth dropping a further
20bp to 2.51%. NZD/USD traded 0.5952 â€“ 0.6106, sitting in the
middle of that range in the NY afternoon.
a notable lack of interest in the fortunes of the US equity
market, instead chopping around 0.6850 to 0.7000 or thereabouts, with no clear
direction. Commodities were mixed.
poor Eurozone PMI data, gaining >1.5 cents from early London to the NY
afternoon, with talk swirling of sovereign accounts dumping dollars.
off as US equities
appeared on track for their weakest performance in about 8 sessions, dipping to
a low of 98.26 then wandering around 99.00.
non-factory ISM plunges from 50.2 to 44.4 in Oct to its
lowest since the surveyâ€™s inception in 1997. This provides yet more evidence
that the modest contraction in economic growth reported for Q3 will deepen in
Q4. The breakdown shows weakness across activity, orders and jobs, and matches
the depressed picture from all the other national and regional business surveys
released over the past month or so.
ADP private payrolls down 157k in Oct. The sharp fall in the ADP
measure of private payrolls for October represents a serious downturn in this
particular jobs indicator. Recently, ADP has on average reported a change in
non-government jobs about 100k higher than the official BLS private payroll
estimate. If that relationship were to hold in Fridayâ€™s report, October payrolls
might be expected to fall by around 230k (â€“260k for private payrolls plus about
30k for government jobs which rarely fall). Certainly, the sharply weaker
readings for both factory and non-factory ISM jobs, and the sharp deterioration
in labour market confidence reported by the Conference Board last week, suggest
there is downside risk to our forecast payrolls decline of 200k in October.
Euroland services PMI was revised down by a steep 1.1 pts to 45.8 in
Oct, indicating an even weaker start to services sector activity in Q4,
following Q3â€™s consistently sluggish outcomes. This is a solid signal that
probable negative Q3 GDP growth (to be reported November 14) will be followed
by a further contraction in the current quarter. Also, retail sales, already
sluggish, lost more momentum in September, falling 0.2% to be down 1.6% yr.
services PMI slumped to 42.4 in Oct, its lowest in the twelve year history of the
series. Along with very weak factory and construction PMIs, this confirms that
the UK recession
is deepening. The sharp contraction in manufacturing output at the end of Q3
(down 0.8% in Sep) is further evidence of that. On the plus side, there was a surprise
recovery in consumer confidence in October (the Nationwide index rose from 51
to 55), which we put down to the Bank of England rate cut, lower petrol prices
and a sense that the government plan to bolster the banking sector might be
working. A further fall in the BRC shop price index, mainly due to food prices,
confirms that the CPI probably peaked in September, with inflation now likely
to fall sharply over the next year.
neutral NZD/USD short term. With NZD/USD now probing the 0.60/0.62 area we have
been awaiting, we are tempted to sell into this strength. We see AUD/NZD higher,
with scope for 1.18 multi-day, as an improved risk environment encourages unwinding
of some of the excessive AUD shorts.
Release Last Forecast
Employment/Unemploy 1.2%/3.9% 0.0%/4.1%
Employment/Unemploy 2.2k/4.3% â€“10k/4.5%
Productivity % annâ€™lsd 4.3% 0.8%
Labour Costs â€“0.5% â€“1.0%
Jobless Claims w/e 8/11 479k 480k
Jpn Oct Bank
of Japan Minutes
Index 89.0 89.2
Eur ECB Repo
Rate Decision 3.75% 3.25%
Factory Orders 3.6% â€“4.0%
UK BoE Repo
Rate Decision 4.50% 4.00%
Can SepBuilding Permits â€“13.5%
Oct Ivey PMI
nsa 61.0 55.0
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (4 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3 LCI
and QES Review (3 November)
â€¢ NZ Q3
Labour Market Preview (29 October)
â€¢ NZ Weekly
Forex Outlook (28 October)
â€¢ NZ Q3 CPI
Review (21 October)
papers/publications are available on Online Research on Westpac
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